Also Ace as you've pointed out global consumption could go down in another recession but honestly, Im probably gonna get flamed for this but as long as the top 10% of society are spending I think Visa will be fine the reason I say that is. If you take the entire bottom half of society and assume they spend under $300/month on their CC and compare it to everyone in the top 1% who probably spend $200k+ annually on a card, i don't think the spending habits at the top will change. Even at the peak of the crisis in 2009 you could go to the best steakhouses in dallas and houston and they were packed.
For me, I personally have a united explorer Visa card that I buy close to $200k/month on for work buying goods for my stores at sams:cigarettes,candy,drinks and I know I spent close to $2M on it this past year all work related and the fees on that alone are like $30k/year from Sams to Visa....for just me and my 4 stores. Then I don't know the breakdown per card, but I paid last year over $200k in merchant fees at work bc close to 90% of sales are on CC and visa charges 1.5%, Amex close to 3%.
So I know I'm a damn good contributor to Visa and their earnings as a consumer and as a business owner, then I see all the other business owners just like me buying goods everyday for their businesses and most wholesale places will only take visa,master,discover and pass on amex bc of the higher fees.....so with Visa being the biggest....it's my choice, their healthy balance sheet is a big bonus
This post was edited on 8/1 at 11:20 am