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re: TSLA at $161, anybody biting?

Posted on 12/16/22 at 2:36 pm to
Posted by Texas Tea 123
Member since Sep 2017
208 posts
Posted on 12/16/22 at 2:36 pm to
TSLA is still more than 5x where it was before COVID. Did the company become 5x more valuable over the past few years?
Posted by Aubie Spr96
lolwut?
Member since Dec 2009
41201 posts
Posted on 12/16/22 at 2:44 pm to
Saw an analyst on CNBC this week with a price target of $80ish if I remember correctly.
Posted by molsusports
Member since Jul 2004
36141 posts
Posted on 12/16/22 at 2:54 pm to
quote:

TSLA is still more than 5x where it was before COVID. Did the company become 5x more valuable over the past few years?


Maybe. But it might have been dramatically over valued before the increase.

I am just not sophisticated (or naive?) enough to understand Elon's proposal that the FSD technology advantage dramatically increases the company value
Posted by plaric
Pike Road, Alabama
Member since Jun 2011
2204 posts
Posted on 12/16/22 at 3:02 pm to
he could license it to all of the other manufacturers and make a killing.
Posted by molsusports
Member since Jul 2004
36141 posts
Posted on 12/16/22 at 3:10 pm to
That's interesting

I find the self driven cars creepy and potentially concerning. Especially if they can be remotely controlled or shut down.

Given those potential abuses I just don't want one. But my preferences don't necessarily reflect the majority of Americans
Posted by Diseasefreeforall
Member since Oct 2012
5571 posts
Posted on 12/16/22 at 3:10 pm to
quote:

TSLA is still more than 5x where it was before COVID. Did the company become 5x more valuable over the past few years?


Net income has increased by more than 5x. Free cash flow per share has gone up and down.

I'm not invested in Tesla and have no plans to be but the EV market is in its infancy and has massive room to grow over the next 15 years, and Tesla looks like it will continue to be the biggest player even with all the competition.

The P/E ratio is still high at 46 so it's a question of the multiple vs the future market size and possible share price depreciation in the short term. As a tech company the P/S is reasonable at 6 but how long will they be seen as a tech company.
Posted by Texas Tea 123
Member since Sep 2017
208 posts
Posted on 12/16/22 at 4:05 pm to
It's a car company, not a tech company.

About $5B in free cash flow vs. a market cap of $475B. That's a ~1% FCF yield. 10yr treasury yields ~3.5%.

30x EV/EBITDA, yikes.
50x P/E, yikes.

Valuing things on P/Sales is why many "tech" or "growth" stocks are down >50% this year
This post was edited on 12/16/22 at 4:11 pm
Posted by Highthoughts
Member since Sep 2022
313 posts
Posted on 12/16/22 at 4:27 pm to
Tesla grew during a period with little to no real competition.

There’s a lot more EV options out there now. Why would you buy a Tesla instead of a Mercedes when they’re about the same price?

I’m not sure Tesla capitalized enough on their first mover advantage.
Posted by oneg8rh8r
Port Ludlow, WA
Member since Dec 2003
2708 posts
Posted on 12/16/22 at 6:31 pm to
I nibbled at $158 but after a few hours I really got to thinking about the fact that I think THEY ARE MORE THAN A CAR COMPANY, but probably will be able to pick this up later at a much lower price I bailed after making TACO BELL money.



I tend to agree, this is probably going to near $100 but will be an amazing buy a decade from now.
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
162258 posts
Posted on 12/17/22 at 9:53 am to
quote:


Tesla doesn't have battery technology, you do know Panasonic makes their batteries right? It's Panasonic's technology.


Tesla is about to build a 375 million dollar lithium refining facility 30 minutes from where I work

Also - you're a little late to the party but Tesla did in fact start making some of their own batteries
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4129 posts
Posted on 12/17/22 at 10:11 am to
quote:

I nibbled at $158…

but probably will be able to pick this up later at a much lower price I bailed after making TACO BELL money.


Considering that it closed at 150 and continued down to 149 AH, sounds like your intuition was spot on.
Posted by SalE
At the beach
Member since Jan 2020
2435 posts
Posted on 12/19/22 at 8:20 pm to
When Ron Baron goes south, get back to me.
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13104 posts
Posted on 12/20/22 at 10:06 am to
At $144 now. I was thinking my first rebuy would be at $145, but i'm not gonna catch a falling knife. I think this is going sub $100 before all said and done.
Posted by Guntoter1
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2020
1033 posts
Posted on 12/20/22 at 11:30 am to
PE ratio at 44.
How low will this go?
At what ratio will be considered a steal?
Posted by Texas Tea 123
Member since Sep 2017
208 posts
Posted on 12/20/22 at 11:35 am to
Toyota trades at 10x
Honda trades at 8x
GM trades at 6x
Ford trades at 5x
Mercedes trades at 5x
Posted by molsusports
Member since Jul 2004
36141 posts
Posted on 12/20/22 at 1:02 pm to
quote:

PE ratio at 44.
How low will this go?
At what ratio will be considered a steal?


I don't believe the FSD adds dramatic value but some people do.

I do think Tesla has better control over their supply chain issues, better margins, and more efficient manufacturing than their competitors. That's valuable but I don't know what precise value is reasonable given the flux of the industry
Posted by supadave3
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2005
30294 posts
Posted on 12/20/22 at 1:24 pm to
quote:

think this is going sub $100 before all said and done.


Damn. I discussed this with friend of mine several months ago and he loaded up at $750, thinking he was getting in unbelievable deal. I sold my 2 shares at $900.

Looks like I mad a better decision.
Posted by METAL
Member since Nov 2020
1040 posts
Posted on 12/20/22 at 1:36 pm to
I recently bought.
Posted by skewbs
Member since Apr 2008
2009 posts
Posted on 12/20/22 at 1:44 pm to
The 52 week chart looks horrendous. I'm with GenLee here in that it's going lower. I plan to start dipping in under $120. That level seems like a fantastic buying point for long term investors.
Posted by Billy Blanks
Member since Dec 2021
3814 posts
Posted on 12/20/22 at 1:45 pm to
I'm thinking about jumping in.

Bought 21 shares.
This post was edited on 12/20/22 at 1:49 pm
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