re: The fundamental lie of Crypto.

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Bitcoin CANNOT survive a loss in confidence

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It already has, multiple times over.

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This. In the 3rd world btc is a vital utility. It allows the otherwise poor and unbanked to get paid

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Lol do you actually believe this? Like those guys playing axie infinity in the Philippines...

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A loss in confidence can bankrupt a company and when they unplug, it is ALL GONE. Wiped away. You get nothing.

that's the problem with crypto.

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crypto.... thats the problem with centralized banking too. YOU just havent experienced it in the US because during your lifetime the US has been stable...... we are tetering now.....

I read a good post some where talking how familys in eastern Europe are so diverse because they have seen their country, a neighboring country, etc just go bankrupt and anyone 100% vest there had nothing after. people in the US has NEVER seen that.... well outside of Enron.

Crypto solves the shutting down of a centralized system because the block chains are running on systems around the world.

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there is no company behind fiat either.

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But military power is.

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price behaving like a currency isnt the end all be all.

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It's extremely important if you want widespread adoption, in a day to day sense.

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It doesn't solve any problem with centralized banking. It individualizes several aspects of banking, but it doesn't solve anything at all.

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100% false.

The primary thing it solves is crypto allows one to store wealth independent of any government.

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But military power is.

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a military cannot guarantee value for a currency, only voluntary agreement provides value.

russia has military power and saw their currency devalued because they flexed their military power and other countries sanctioned them. its since recovered due to other countries taking advantage and making new trading partners, but they were still vulnerable despite military power. the only reason it was able to recover was they had other people voluntarily participating.

NK has nukes and a large army...their currency is shite. its shite because few voluntarily agree that it has much value.

yea a country can 'back' their fiat, but at the very core, fiat only valuable due to extrinsic voluntary faith in its government.

we have the worlds best military and our dollar is still being devalued. what is a military going to do against inflation, dilution of circulating money, sanctions?

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yea a country can 'back' their fiat, but at the very core, fiat only valuable due to extrinsic voluntary faith in its government.

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Of course, and the major currencies that are used to settle balance of payments this last century, the pound and the dollar, were both backed by the ability of each country to provide a semblance of safety on international sea routes.

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we have the worlds best military and our dollar is still being devalued. what is a military going to do against inflation, dilution of circulating money, sanctions?

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Targeted inflation is the explicit goal of the Fed, as well as price stability. What allows the Fed to participate in open money operations is the sheer amount of transactions the USD settles. The US economy is in better shape in most countries elsewhere, and that will always make it a reserve currency when things go south elsewhere. Crypto could possibly operate as a hedge against sanctions, but it doesn't retain price stability that allows for its use in governmental or corporate budgets. Even the stablecoins are not appropriate for this as of yet.

The job of a currency isn't to store wealth, it is explicitly to use it for goods and services. The currency aspect of cryptocurrency fails massively in that regard, as the overall infrastructure of blockchains is still extremely poor.

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tomorrow the US gov could stage a 'bay of pigs' type shitshow and get sanctioned by other countries and the USD would drop. yall saying military power backs a currency, but it can also devalue a currency. this happened months ago when russia flexed theirs, they were sanctioned, and devalued.

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Not necessarily. The US is the de facto operator of the international banking system, and thus has wide leeway to inflict sanctions on whoever it chooses. The BRICS countries do not have the same degree of robust banking infrastructure, and aren't regarded as the same stable sources of value. Thus, the likelihood that the US would ever encounter sanctions that could affect it is very small.

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I bet russia felt the same way.

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But Russia knew and knows that the US can enact sanctions on them in a way that no power can enact on the US. The Russian elite knew this, and have attempted to workaround this, with one example being a law that attempted to streamline Russian procurement efforts to avoid 'unfriendly' states signed in 2018. Russia in fact has even enacted sanctions on the US, even before Crimea in 2014. But the average US consumer never noticed them. At this moment in geopolitics, the US can enact sanctions to degrees that would cripple many nations in the short-term.

Yeah we agree, though I'd still argue that the voluntary agreement is implicitly backed by violence. I think crypto is a nice enough asset class to have and I've made lots of money on crypto. It will always be part of my portfolio. But I still think it falls well-short of Nakamoto's white paper, which seems a bit naive now in hindsight.