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Started By
Message
Taleb goes into self-imposed exile
Posted on 11/30/09 at 8:16 pm
Posted on 11/30/09 at 8:16 pm
quote:
What I am seeing and hearing on the news -- the reappointment of Bernanke -- is too hard for me to bear. I cannot believe that we, in the 21st century, can accept living in such a society. I am not blaming Bernanke (he doesn't even know he doesn't understand how things work or that the tools he uses are not empirical); it is the Senators appointing him who are totally irresponsible -- as if we promoted every doctor who caused malpractice. The world has never, never been as fragile. Economics make homeopath and alternative healers look empirical and scientific.
No news, no press, no Davos, no suit-and-tie fraudsters, no fools. I need to withdraw as immediately as possible into the Platonic quiet of my library, work on my next book, find solace in science and philosophy, and mull the next step. I will also structure trades with my Universa friends to bet on the next mistake by Bernanke, Summers, and Geithner. I will only (briefly) emerge from my hiatus when the publishers force me to do so upon the publication of the paperback edition of The Black Swan.
Bye,
Nassim
LINK
This post was edited on 11/30/09 at 8:20 pm
4
Posted on 11/30/09 at 9:06 pm to Tiger JJ
Sounds like a whiny douche who criticizes everything and offers no alternative plan. Good deal.
Posted on 11/30/09 at 9:30 pm to wizard of smart
you know anything about him or just talking out your arse?
Posted on 11/30/09 at 9:41 pm to prplhze2000
I read a few of his articles from the link
Posted on 11/30/09 at 10:24 pm to wizard of smart
quote:You seriously need to consider changing your name.
wizard of smart
Posted on 11/30/09 at 10:47 pm to wizard of smart
quote:
wizard of smart
This screen name needs to be taken from you and reserved for Taleb's joining the Money Talk board.
Posted on 11/30/09 at 11:10 pm to Tiger4Ever
Good one.
I take it you folks hang on to this guy's every word because he wrote a book about a black swan. What's the point of reading about a black swan if you can't see them coming anyway, much less spending part of your life writing about it. Sounds like an a-hole
Anyway, from here
Sucks, but how are you going to fix it without causing pain for everyone?
From JT's link
But not before I write this
What a pompous a-hole
To promote his book and his self. Looks like he's got a few followers hook, line, and sinker
I take it you folks hang on to this guy's every word because he wrote a book about a black swan. What's the point of reading about a black swan if you can't see them coming anyway, much less spending part of your life writing about it. Sounds like an a-hole
Anyway, from here
quote:
Companies who made mistakes and fragilized the system are being subsidized by the countercyclical ones who make it more robust.
Sucks, but how are you going to fix it without causing pain for everyone?
From JT's link
quote:
I need to withdraw as immediately as possible
But not before I write this
quote:
bet on the next mistake by Bernanke, Summers, and Geithner
What a pompous a-hole
quote:
(briefly) emerge from my hiatus
To promote his book and his self. Looks like he's got a few followers hook, line, and sinker
Posted on 12/1/09 at 9:52 am to wizard of smart
quote:
What's the point of reading about a black swan if you can't see them coming anyway,
quote:
Sucks, but how are you going to fix it without causing pain for everyone?
Why should the goal be pain for no one?
quote:
What a pompous a-hole
That will make a shite ton of money doing so.
Posted on 12/1/09 at 10:00 am to Tiger JJ
quote:Don't let the door hit you in the arse on your way out.
Taleb goes into self-imposed exile
Posted on 12/1/09 at 10:45 am to LSURussian
quote:
Don't let the door hit you in the arse on your way out.
It won't matter. If it does hit him, he'll just fall face forwards into the hundreds of millions of dollars that Universa made last year.
Posted on 12/1/09 at 10:51 am to Tiger JJ
Doubtful. I'm willing to bet he doesn't have millions of dollars on the floor just waiting for him to fall.
At any rate, he didn't get any of my money....
At any rate, he didn't get any of my money....
This post was edited on 12/1/09 at 10:52 am
Posted on 12/1/09 at 1:32 pm to Tiger JJ
I like his views, but he's sounding a little bitchy here.
Why so much drama, Taleb?
Why so much drama, Taleb?
Posted on 12/1/09 at 5:26 pm to wizard of smart
quote:
I take it you folks hang on to this guy's every word because he wrote a book about a black swan. What's the point of reading about a black swan if you can't see them coming anyway, much less spending part of your life writing about it. Sounds like an a-hole
Agreed he's a pompous arse, but his points regarding black swans seem to be way over your head. He tries to capitalize on mispricing of risk in a world dominated by models based on normal distributions. (Not that he's necessarily perfect at implementing his plans - he somehow didn't make money in the market panic after 9/11.)
As for his offering no solutions, google "Ten principles for a Black Swan proof world." You may need at FT.com subscription, but he lays out 10 policy prescriptions. They're very 30,000-foot type views, but still much better than what we've gotten thus far, in my opinion.
Posted on 12/1/09 at 9:33 pm to Tiger JJ
I'm a big fan of the Black Swan and most of his views, but this seems a little childish, even for Taleb. It's like he's a child having a temper tantrum... "NO! I'm taking MY TOYS and GOING HOME!"
*storms off*
Seriously, suck it up big guy, it infuriates me too, but we've got to keep up the good fight.
"All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for men of good conscience to remain silent."
-Thomas Jefferson
*storms off*
Seriously, suck it up big guy, it infuriates me too, but we've got to keep up the good fight.
"All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for men of good conscience to remain silent."
-Thomas Jefferson
This post was edited on 12/1/09 at 9:34 pm
Posted on 12/3/09 at 3:52 pm to sneakytiger
Maybe Taleb is tired of supposedly astute practitioners getting it wrong:
We Don't Quite Know What We Are Talking About
We Don't Quite Know What We Are Talking About
Posted on 12/3/09 at 4:37 pm to tirebiter
From your link:
Who could ever get confused by that!?!
quote:
Finance professionals....seem to confuse mean absolute deviation with standard deviation, causing an underestimation of 25% with theoretical Gaussian variables.
Who could ever get confused by that!?!
Posted on 12/3/09 at 4:42 pm to LSURussian
Certainly not a layman.
It ties into your VaR post quite nicely I might add.
It ties into your VaR post quite nicely I might add.
Posted on 12/3/09 at 4:58 pm to tirebiter
Indeed.
Posted on 12/3/09 at 5:27 pm to kfizzle85
It's well worth reading and self explanatory, only 8 pages about a study of professionals and students. It's like the blind leading the blinder.
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