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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 12/21/23 at 8:28 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
Just an FYI the deflation is here already
How do you figure?
Posted on 12/21/23 at 8:44 pm to pbro62
quote:
You are a dumbass
I can guarantee that your life will be much, much worse economically and financially if you wake up to potato chips falling 50%. The fact that some (many) on here don’t understand that isn’t too surprising.
Posted on 12/21/23 at 8:53 pm to Bard
Credit is contracting and rates made an insane move lower last week. That's the market signal that credit is tightening which leads to deflation. We’re about to find out how down for the revolution the executive branch is because they have insane comps they need to overshoot to prop up growth and job creation.
Whoever called Slackster and idiot is f$&@ing retarded. He’s the best poster on this board outside of the rare appearance of Benny who works in the hedge fund world.
Whoever called Slackster and idiot is f$&@ing retarded. He’s the best poster on this board outside of the rare appearance of Benny who works in the hedge fund world.
This post was edited on 12/21/23 at 9:00 pm
Posted on 12/21/23 at 10:55 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
Credit is contracting and rates made an insane move lower last week.
I thought rates going down was a sign of credit loosening?
Posted on 12/21/23 at 11:27 pm to slackster
quote:A little bit of inflation is a good thing. And we had it for nearly 2 decades. The constant talking about "debasement" always seems like nonsense to me - nobody EVER talks about the asset side of the balance sheet. They also seem to forget wage inflation is one of the big inputs into inflation. Yes, the price of gas has inflated since 1950. Also, your assets and income have inflated vastly more.
I can guarantee that your life will be much, much worse economically and financially if you wake up to potato chips falling 50%. The fact that some (many) on here don’t understand that isn’t too surprising.
My biggest fear is definitely a deflationary spiral.
Posted on 12/22/23 at 7:19 am to Big Scrub TX
People struggle with the nuance. Saying potato chip prices falling 50% from here is a bad thing isn’t the same thing as saying I’m happy they’ve gone up so much.
Posted on 12/22/23 at 8:41 am to Bard
quote:There were some articles a few months ago saying that banks were tightening their loan standards, but I think the actual message was that only people with extremely good credit would get good rates (as it should be). The article below says the survey results were "consistent with an expected economic slowdown in the final months of the year."
I thought rates going down was a sign of credit loosening?
Reuters - Fed Report Shows US Loan Officers See Tighter Credit, Weaker Demand
Posted on 12/22/23 at 8:59 am to RoyalWe
quote:
Reuters - Fed Report Shows US Loan Officers See Tighter Credit, Weaker Demand
Thanks!
I was looking at rates as part of the lending standards. #TIL
Posted on 12/22/23 at 9:17 am to wutangfinancial
quote:
Whoever called Slackster and idiot is f$&@ing retarded.
No need to waste your breath (or key taps). I just took a look at his recent posts, and his reply to Slackster is par for the course. Apparently, and unfortunately, that sort of response is all that he’s capable of.
Posted on 12/22/23 at 11:13 am to Bard
quote:
I thought rates going down was a sign of credit loosening?
That's completely backwards. Are commercial banks just spewing out loans right now?
LO Survey - NY Fed
quote:
Regarding loans to businesses, survey respondents, on balance, reported tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes over the third quarter.2 Furthermore, banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for all commercial real estate (CRE) loan categories.
There's rumors the commercial real estate market is completely frozen...
US Treasury Yield Curve
You're letting academics and government officials gaslight you essentially. We'd basically be in recession if it weren't for the federal governmet hiring and spending.
You can even look at the CPI print and M2, which aren't accurate but people use it as a proxy for money supply all the time.
Posted on 12/22/23 at 12:03 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
That's completely backwards.
Yeah, Royal explained it. I was just (wrongly) thinking of rates as being a function of loan standards instead of being a somewhat separate thing.
quote:
We'd basically be in recession if it weren't for the federal governmet hiring and spending.
Considering the growth of the federal budget, this would likely be true at any point over the last 20 years (with it being more and more of a truism with each passing year). It's every bit as untenable as what we're seeing with consumer debt. When the recession actually hits (2 quarters of negative GDP), I think it's likely to trigger a domino effect which pops the consumer credit bubble we're in (there's an argument which could be made for it already being in the early stages of popping but I'm not quite there yet). The fallout from that could be brutal (and that's without getting into how it could increase government spending through an increased enrollment on social programs).
Posted on 12/22/23 at 12:24 pm to Bard
quote:
When the recession actually hits (2 quarters of negative GDP), I think it's likely to trigger a domino effect which pops the consumer credit bubble we're in (there's an argument which could be made for it already being in the early stages of popping but I'm not quite there yet)
We were in recession last year and nothing broke. Probably a product of the lag effect. Corporate credit hasn't been rolled yet so we'll see if there's an event like a bad auction that triggers something. So far the economy has been rather resilient. Considering anybody who draws a paycheck from the federal government received massive raises it's not very surprising. Also the ERC and student loan payment freeze is coming offline (althought the student loan payment gaming will continue until next year).
This post was edited on 12/22/23 at 12:26 pm
Posted on 12/26/23 at 1:44 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
We were in recession last year and nothing broke.
I disagree with that. The gilts crisis in Sept '22 would have snowballed into large, global negative outcomes if Janet hadn't run the the TGA down concurrently with Biden draining the SPR to keep oil, inflation expectations and yields from blowing out. Dxy went from 114 to 104 shortly afterwards which stimulated equities.
In March of this year SVB would have snowballed into a global banking crisis had FDIC not effectively removed the 250k deposit cap and the Fed instituted BTFP which is effectively yield curve control for banks. Things broke and they were quick with already prepared band aid solutions imo.
Perhaps band aids are all that's needed to keep headline numbers positive when everything is backstopped by wartime fiscal deficits--6-8% of gdp, lol.
Posted on 12/26/23 at 1:58 pm to Art Blakey
I agree on the regional banking crisis and the Gilt blowup. Those are not insignificant. Japan and China have both had issues out East, too. Don’t forget economic growth is globally synchronized and that stagnation combined with tightening credit is probably going to push us into another contraction in growth. I’m not sure the Fed’s can prop it up like they did this year.
Posted on 12/27/23 at 7:03 am to euphemus
Methinks that thou protest too soon ……
Posted on 12/27/23 at 5:22 pm to euphemus
No.
Posted on 12/28/23 at 8:08 am to udtiger
Printing more money won’t prevent inflation.
Posted on 12/28/23 at 12:54 pm to euphemus
Nope. The decline is delayed to stimulus and that runs out soon.
Posted on 12/28/23 at 5:20 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:I just don't see a big credit event happening. In the loan market, only 8% of outstanding loans are due prior to 2026. And there's literally trillions of PE overhang to address any stumbles (i.e. equity might get impaired, but I just don't see it for credit).
Corporate credit hasn't been rolled yet
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