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re: Potential good deal alert: Bayer (BAYRY) |: Update: After 6 months up 43%

Posted on 1/6/17 at 7:55 am to
Posted by oklahogjr
Gold Membership
Member since Jan 2010
36761 posts
Posted on 1/6/17 at 7:55 am to
So how are you finding these deals on stocks? Are there any metrics you use? Source for tips?
Posted by Jon Ham
Member since Jun 2011
28585 posts
Posted on 1/6/17 at 12:14 pm to
quote:

How do you see the market going for the foreseeable future?


Posted by Jon Ham
Member since Jun 2011
28585 posts
Posted on 1/6/17 at 12:38 pm to
quote:

So how are you finding these deals on stocks? Are there any metrics you use? Source for tips?


Google Finance Stock Screener is a usefull, easy to use tool. P/E, forward P/E, margins, and growth are good to know and compare between similar companies and the market as a whole.

I prefer to look for a stock that has recently taken a dip in share price. Look at how far a stock is off its 52 week low. I like it when a stock is much closer to its 52 week low than to its 52 week high. Once I find one that's taken a dip, I try to determine if the stock's dip isn't entirely rational (like BAYRY when it was trading with a forward P/E of 11), or if there is upside to the company that likely isn't priced in to the current price (like when Nintendo was trading for under $20 before Pokémon Go release).

While the numbers are obviously important and a big part of choosing stock, I recommend trying to find companies that peak your interest and that you enjoy learning about. If you come across articles about companies you find interesting or think "hey, I think that company is on the right track," go from there and do research on it. Look at the numbers, compare it, and do searches for any and all articles pertaining to that company to give yourself as much info as possible. Try to keep the mindset of an active entrepreneur more than someone just wanting an easy, passive ROI. If it's the latter you want, I recommend mutual funds.

Disclaimer: I'm not anywhere close to an expert or professional. All of the above is just the opinion of someone with one year experience of making a few very small trades.

This post was edited on 1/6/17 at 12:40 pm
Posted by Jon Ham
Member since Jun 2011
28585 posts
Posted on 1/6/17 at 12:53 pm to
Also, Martin Shkreli has a great introductory series on valuation/investing on YouTube.

One resource to pick up on recent chatter on specific stocks is StockTwits.
Posted by Jon Ham
Member since Jun 2011
28585 posts
Posted on 1/27/17 at 10:24 pm to
BAYRY is up 22% since I made this thread. Over the same time period:

NASDAQ: up 5.2%
DJIA: up 5.3%
S&P 500: up 4.1%


This thing still has room to grow with a forward P/E of 13.3

However, since there are always 2 sides, here's a recent article written by someone who thought BAYRY was fairly priced at $108 (BAYRY closed at $113.92 today) - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4037737-bayer-little-upside-left.

I don't find the article compelling, but it is substantive and something to consider if you're thinking about getting in now.
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
37702 posts
Posted on 1/28/17 at 7:02 am to
You should be making more threads then.
Posted by Jon Ham
Member since Jun 2011
28585 posts
Posted on 4/27/17 at 9:01 am to
Currently sitting at $122.95. Up 32% since I made this thread.

Over the same period of time:

DJIA: up 10%
S&P 500: up 8%
Nasdaq: up 12%
Posted by dabigfella
Member since Mar 2016
6687 posts
Posted on 4/27/17 at 9:02 am to
great call man
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
82017 posts
Posted on 4/27/17 at 9:29 am to
Your threads have been fricking money.
Great calls! The Nintendo play around this time last year was great as well
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
80770 posts
Posted on 4/27/17 at 10:05 am to
MOAR
Posted by GREENHEAD22
Member since Nov 2009
19590 posts
Posted on 4/27/17 at 7:13 pm to
Big thanks, I am up as well, just wish I would have bought more.
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 4/27/17 at 7:19 pm to
What's next....
Posted by Jon Ham
Member since Jun 2011
28585 posts
Posted on 5/1/17 at 1:37 pm to
I just bought a house so my free cash for trading has dried up for the time being. Hoping to get back in the game in a few months after I get back to a healthy level of cash on hand.
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
82017 posts
Posted on 5/1/17 at 1:44 pm to
We don't have that kind of time!
Posted by willeaux
Member since Jan 2006
2922 posts
Posted on 5/13/19 at 6:40 pm to
You still follow this stock?
Posted by Jon Ham
Member since Jun 2011
28585 posts
Posted on 5/13/19 at 7:31 pm to
No I don’t. I bought a house and had a kid, so all my “play” money is gone.
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