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Message
re: Official Erin Energy (ERN) thread
Posted on 5/26/15 at 4:10 pm to Iowa Golfer
Posted on 5/26/15 at 4:10 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
And further, hedge funds never need to report on a 13F.
Yes they do. Over $100 mm they have to file quarterly, 45 days after the end of the quarter. Most of the time it can be irrelevant though bc there is no way to know if they still hold said stock or not because of the delay.
1
Posted on 5/27/15 at 9:30 pm to whodatigahbait
Anyway. Not that I have an interest or anything like that, but I did listen to the annual meeting.
Minority interest on the board wasn't addressed. Several reasons, most obvious. I would hope this would change by next year's annual meeting.
After ratifying the auditing firm, meeting was closed. Presentation to stockholders started. Kase gave it.
Oyo 8 is over 7200 BOD. No comments on choke and leveled off production. I guess we assume it will stabilize at 7K to 7.1K BOD. I think it usually levels off lower, but it's over 7200, so that's good.
By end of next month (June) to be producing about 14 BOD.
About 3B BOE P50, which represents about 25% of recoverables, in the next two wells after Oyo 8 & 7.
Talks about shareholder return(s). In past three years 197% return. No news here.
OML 120 & 121, which is where Oyo 8 & 7 are, has over 15 other wells. They have worked on 4 of these, including 8 & 7. I think anyway. I get confused by the various names for fields and wells.
Kase says what they have inhouse is enough to sustain organic growth for the next decade in 120 & 121 alone. He said they are talking to partners, and potential partners have been approaching them.
So basically what I heard is Oyo 8 is over 7200 BOD, and Oyo 7, barring delays, should be producing another 7K + by end of June.
Ghana is where the rubber hits the road. A partner here, with the sheer amount of reserves, turns ERN in to a takeover target in my opinion. Especially after they have some time to use cash flow to get debt down. Enterprise value to oversimplify.
But what would I know? Just some random guy from Iowa on an LSU message board. Who probably owns no stock in ERN, but listens to the transcript of the annual meeting at 9:29 PM for some odd reason.
Bring the action.
LINK
Laffy
Minority interest on the board wasn't addressed. Several reasons, most obvious. I would hope this would change by next year's annual meeting.
After ratifying the auditing firm, meeting was closed. Presentation to stockholders started. Kase gave it.
Oyo 8 is over 7200 BOD. No comments on choke and leveled off production. I guess we assume it will stabilize at 7K to 7.1K BOD. I think it usually levels off lower, but it's over 7200, so that's good.
By end of next month (June) to be producing about 14 BOD.
About 3B BOE P50, which represents about 25% of recoverables, in the next two wells after Oyo 8 & 7.
Talks about shareholder return(s). In past three years 197% return. No news here.
OML 120 & 121, which is where Oyo 8 & 7 are, has over 15 other wells. They have worked on 4 of these, including 8 & 7. I think anyway. I get confused by the various names for fields and wells.
Kase says what they have inhouse is enough to sustain organic growth for the next decade in 120 & 121 alone. He said they are talking to partners, and potential partners have been approaching them.
So basically what I heard is Oyo 8 is over 7200 BOD, and Oyo 7, barring delays, should be producing another 7K + by end of June.
Ghana is where the rubber hits the road. A partner here, with the sheer amount of reserves, turns ERN in to a takeover target in my opinion. Especially after they have some time to use cash flow to get debt down. Enterprise value to oversimplify.
But what would I know? Just some random guy from Iowa on an LSU message board. Who probably owns no stock in ERN, but listens to the transcript of the annual meeting at 9:29 PM for some odd reason.
Bring the action.
LINK
Laffy
Posted on 5/28/15 at 9:04 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
But what would I know? Just some random guy from Iowa on an LSU message board. Who probably owns no stock in ERN, but listens to the transcript of the annual meeting at 9:29 PM for some odd reason.
Bring the action.
LINK
Laffy
you're a very interesting fellow IG. I appreciate your candidness here, as I'm sure most around here do, and I think it's why you occasionally get resistance from some posters. Not many are as open as you about where their money goes, and I think that makes many uncomfortable.
This post was edited on 5/28/15 at 9:05 am
Posted on 5/28/15 at 10:44 am to rintintin
Iowa Golfer gives me a good reason to like my brother in law who is not Hawkeye, but has tattoo and other crap.
They are probably uncomfortable like me because I didn't put in more $
All I have is 365 shares and majority were at the beginning of this month.
But there is some profit.
Laffy.
quote:
Not many are as open as you about where their money goes, and I think that makes many uncomfortable.
They are probably uncomfortable like me because I didn't put in more $
All I have is 365 shares and majority were at the beginning of this month.
But there is some profit.
Laffy.
Posted on 5/28/15 at 10:55 am to LSU9102
London analyst increased price target to $10.49 today. As an aside, I did some checking earlier this morning. One of their largest holders is a hedge fund. They aren't required to complete a 13F. There is so leeway in this reporting requirement. First, they report 45 days after the quarter, secondly, hedge funds commonly get exceptions from the SEC about reporting at all. I drilled down in to institutional ownership, and as I suspected, most of my assumption above are accurate.
I looked at the roster of shareholders of record as of 4/27, which ERN is required to have present at the annual meeting, and I think they are required to file this somewhere as well.
Also, I had an extended telephone conversation this morning with Houston. I voiced my displeasure over no addressing minority representation on the board. This is really shareholder's responsibility.
As an aside, I didn't receive a proxy on either my cash account(s), or margin account(s). My cash account is explainable as I bought more at $4.71, and the settlement date was pre record date. My margin accounts? Every share is lent out. Which resulted in several telephone calls this morning explaining to brokers they were either going to pay me interest for my loaned shares or lose my account(s). IB should have paid me automatically. I'm fairly pissed about this.
And in conclusion (for now anyway) I never received cash in lieu for my fractional shares, which the brokers blamed on DTC. Which is also crap since I communicate directly with both transfer agents.
Agitated me this morning. barely made it in to my office before 10AM. Probably wrecked what little is left of my golf game.
I looked at the roster of shareholders of record as of 4/27, which ERN is required to have present at the annual meeting, and I think they are required to file this somewhere as well.
Also, I had an extended telephone conversation this morning with Houston. I voiced my displeasure over no addressing minority representation on the board. This is really shareholder's responsibility.
As an aside, I didn't receive a proxy on either my cash account(s), or margin account(s). My cash account is explainable as I bought more at $4.71, and the settlement date was pre record date. My margin accounts? Every share is lent out. Which resulted in several telephone calls this morning explaining to brokers they were either going to pay me interest for my loaned shares or lose my account(s). IB should have paid me automatically. I'm fairly pissed about this.
And in conclusion (for now anyway) I never received cash in lieu for my fractional shares, which the brokers blamed on DTC. Which is also crap since I communicate directly with both transfer agents.
Agitated me this morning. barely made it in to my office before 10AM. Probably wrecked what little is left of my golf game.
Posted on 5/28/15 at 12:07 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:Where do you see this?
London analyst increased price target to $10.49 today.
Posted on 5/28/15 at 1:05 pm to RebelOP
They e-mailed me a pdf of it. It might also be on their web-site as well.
This post was edited on 5/28/15 at 1:06 pm
Posted on 5/28/15 at 8:44 pm to Iowa Golfer
ERN has a big red hammer candle on the daily, it could be a sign of it pulling back. I've got a limit order ready in the $6 range just in case it pulls back before moving higher.
I really like the bullish trend.
I really like the bullish trend.
Posted on 5/29/15 at 8:09 am to Chuck3000
Interesting. I don't do much technical stuff. I'm a fundamentals guy.
Same pattern every day for a while now?
Same pattern every day for a while now?
Posted on 5/29/15 at 8:59 am to Iowa Golfer
Im a technicals guy with very little fundamentals.
I let the chart tell me what the investors think.
Usually a large hammer candle at the top of a really bullish stock, is the sign of reversal.
Keep in mind the reversal may be temporary. So, ERN might only pullback to the 10 day simple moving average ($7.27)before churning higher. If theres a panic sell off for some odd resaon, the 50 day simple moving average ($5.04) could be the next stop.
$10-$12 target isn't out of the question, but its got to pull back at some point. Which I think makes it even more attractive.
The overall trend for the 1 year, daily chart is extremely bullish IMO.
I let the chart tell me what the investors think.
Usually a large hammer candle at the top of a really bullish stock, is the sign of reversal.
Keep in mind the reversal may be temporary. So, ERN might only pullback to the 10 day simple moving average ($7.27)before churning higher. If theres a panic sell off for some odd resaon, the 50 day simple moving average ($5.04) could be the next stop.
$10-$12 target isn't out of the question, but its got to pull back at some point. Which I think makes it even more attractive.
The overall trend for the 1 year, daily chart is extremely bullish IMO.
Posted on 5/29/15 at 9:12 am to Chuck3000
Thanks. Good post. Refreshing. Enjoy and appreciate the time you put into it.
Posted on 5/29/15 at 9:49 am to Iowa Golfer
On the 1hour chart, the 10 & 50 day SMA are about to converge.
$7.69
$7.59
So it might hold at this level.
After further inspection, the daily hammer candle was formed yesterday due to a 1hour sell off at the start of the day. That tells me, the traders & sellers got out. It grinded upward ever since. So the pullback may have occurred yesterday.
I'm trying to post my charts to illustrate this point, but I don't know how from my iPhone
$7.69
$7.59
So it might hold at this level.
After further inspection, the daily hammer candle was formed yesterday due to a 1hour sell off at the start of the day. That tells me, the traders & sellers got out. It grinded upward ever since. So the pullback may have occurred yesterday.
I'm trying to post my charts to illustrate this point, but I don't know how from my iPhone
Posted on 5/29/15 at 9:54 am to Chuck3000
Im not a day trader, but a swing trader instead.
I like to buy & hold a stock from a few days to a couple months.
I havent been able to find a stock that I like enough to "invest" & hold more than a year.
ERN represents the type of stock that I like to hold for the monthly timeframe. But I need to big selloff to make an entry. So I sit back & wait.
I like to buy & hold a stock from a few days to a couple months.
I havent been able to find a stock that I like enough to "invest" & hold more than a year.
ERN represents the type of stock that I like to hold for the monthly timeframe. But I need to big selloff to make an entry. So I sit back & wait.
Posted on 5/29/15 at 5:09 pm to Chuck3000
I wouldn't trade this on a chart either. There's going to be news announced. There could be a drilling accident. There's political instability. Not as much as with BAA which operates in the Congo, but enough to render charts useless.
I guess you could say that about every stock. Anyway, I appreciate the fact you put some time in to your trades. As do I. Some might call me a riverboat gambler, but I try to be an educated riverboat gambler.
I guess you could say that about every stock. Anyway, I appreciate the fact you put some time in to your trades. As do I. Some might call me a riverboat gambler, but I try to be an educated riverboat gambler.
Posted on 5/29/15 at 5:49 pm to Iowa Golfer
Options traders loading up on long calls. Virtually no put activity.
Posted on 5/30/15 at 8:33 am to Iowa Golfer
No way short interest % of float can be accurate. It's virtually impossible to borrow shares, and all mine are indeed lent.
This, at some point, is going to be not very laffy for short sellers.
This, at some point, is going to be not very laffy for short sellers.
Posted on 5/30/15 at 7:29 pm to Iowa Golfer
I need to work on my fundamentals.
Posted on 6/2/15 at 10:05 am to Iowa Golfer
ding,ding,ding....busted thru all time high this morning...
IG...
IG...
Posted on 6/2/15 at 10:06 am to Chuck3000
So much for ERN pulling back. Still going strong. Set a new 52 week high this morning.
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