re: Official CryptoTalk Thread

As we approach the halving in the next two weeks, it's an opportune time to discuss the potential bullish and bearish scenarios for Bitcoin over the coming year. I'm keen to hear your insights and what aspects I might be overlooking.

Bearish Points:

1. The US Government has reportedly transferred $2 billion worth of Bitcoin from their cold storage to Coinbase, presumably for sale.

2. The continued sell-off of GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) shares. It's unclear when this will stabilize.

3. The macroeconomic environment suggests a bubble, with many assets appearing overvalued. This is, of course, a matter of perspective.

Bullish Points:

1.The upcoming halving will reduce new Bitcoin supply by half, which historically has led to significant price increases. Will we see a repeat of this pattern?

2.Bitcoin ETFs have seen unprecedented success, surpassing expectations. This trend suggests Wall Street might continue to integrate Bitcoin into more financial products.

Personal Viewpoint:

While I'm optimistic, I suspect this bull run may not be as dramatic as previous ones. Post-halving, I anticipate a potential sell-off. My projection is that Bitcoin's price could end the year between $70,000 and $90,000, barring any major developments. Significant moves, such as another large corporation following MicroStrategy's lead or a country akin to El Salvador adopting Bitcoin, could potentially drive prices to a $150,000 peak by year-end.

I'm curious to hear additional insights on both the bullish and bearish perspectives from here.

I'm a lot more optimistic. I think the biggest Bullish point is not elaborated to the extent it will likely evolve to on your list and will overshadow all of the Bullish and Bearish points by a long shot, taking Bitcoin on a long running rocketship ride later this year.

Although the Bitcoin Spot ETFs have been spectacular for Bitcoin so far with over $12 billion in new inflows this is just a drop in the bucket for massive new institutional investments that are coming soon.

The wealth managers of pension funds, retirement funds, investment banks and sovereign wealth funds collectively manage $100 trillion. They have not really even gotten started yet investing in the Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

The Spot ETFs started trading in January. The wealth management companies take between 90 days and 6 months to do their due diligence on new equities to investigate before making a decision to let their advisors and planners start recommending them to their clients and to start incorporating them into their other products.

This week you can very likely expect two wealth managers (Morgan Stanley and UBS) to announce that Bitcoin Spot ETFs will be available on their platforms almost immediately. Announcements like these will be made one after another this year as more and more platforms, funds, advisors and planners start making the Spot ETFs more available to more and more people and creating massive and increasing demand. This doesn't even include Hong Kong announcing they are creating their own Spot ETFs which will be available in China. Imagine how many Chinese investors will pile in to the Hong Kong ETFs.

The Wealth Managers have $100 trillion in assets under management. It is anticipated they will evolve somewhere in the neighborhood of 2.5% to 5% of their assets under management to Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

If they get to a 1% allocation of Bitcoin Spot ETFs in their funds this year, that is $1 trillion in new Bitcoin Spot ETF demand. $1 trillion in new Bitcoin Spot ETF purchases will send Bitcoin's price up significantly and will dwarf the current $12 billion Spot ETF investments.

Since Bitcoin exchanges are seeing record outflows to cold wallets, the amounts make the government's $2 billion sent to Coinbase is almost a non issue. Nearly 111,000 Bitcoin, valued at around $7.55 billion, were moved out of known crypto exchange wallets to cold wallets just in the last month.

In summary, in my opinion Bitcoin is going to rise very high in 2024 and beyond. Higher and sooner than most people think it will.

Whoa! Great write up!

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The Wall Street bets guy started this token. DYOR

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They did a meme coin last cycle, too.

Now waiting on Morgan Stanley and/or UBS announcements. If we push past $73.7K and sustain it, watch out. Rocket engines are likely warming up.

EDIT: Looks like Bitcoin might possibly slump until May due to the halving "sell the news" and government tightening liquidity until May 1st as explained by Arthur Hayes. Since Bitcoin Open Interest is at all time highs, expect significant volatility up and down.

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Yikes!

66K

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MOAR

I agree with all of this. It’s just difficult to average up when you’re in it as low as I am.

im waiting

I'm buying BTFX on Monday as long as Bitcoin is under $67K. I just hope Hong Kong doesn't make their Spot ETF announcement before the US market opens Monday morning. Best thing that could happen is that Bitcoin is still depressed due to the Iran news and is in the $60K -$65K range in time to buy BTFX (or BITX). Then have the Hong Kong announcement. Then Bitcoin shoots up to over $70K. I will sell BTFX by then. Then if a decent pullback happens right after the halving, I will jump back into BTFX again and then sell again after the recovery and buy BITO hopefully just before the ex-dividend date.

That's the trifecta play that I have on my mind. It's a reasonable possibility that could play out.