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re: January Jobs numbers - WTF?
Posted on 2/2/24 at 8:07 pm to Motownsix
Posted on 2/2/24 at 8:07 pm to Motownsix
quote:
have to use the BLS numbers for work and I’m amazed at how good of a job those baws do over there. Yes the initial numbers every month are labeled preliminary and are later corrected.
So they are wrong 92% of the time and by the time the numbers are corrected everyone was already pushing false information.
Great way to bring trust.
0
Posted on 2/2/24 at 8:53 pm to Bard
I don't think any reasonable person believes these jobs reports are super accurate
This post was edited on 2/2/24 at 8:57 pm
Posted on 2/2/24 at 8:58 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
don't think any reasonable person believes these jobs reports are accurate
How far off do you think they are? Cumulative ADP is within 10% of BLS numbers since Biden took office.
Posted on 2/3/24 at 12:51 am to TigerTatorTots
quote:They're accurate, not precise. As another poster explained, there's a tradeoff of precision for reporting basically real time info.
I don't think any reasonable person believes these jobs reports are super accurate
I don't think any reasonable person believes things are terrible when they so transparently are not.
Posted on 2/3/24 at 2:12 am to Motownsix
quote:The one area that I think our federal government is legitimately competent, if not impressive, is their data collection, modeling, research, reporting, etc. filled with experts with PhDs who were hired for competency and they with good retention.
I have to use the BLS numbers for work and I’m amazed at how good of a job those baws do over there.
And the fact very few people would have any idea who they are, despite being legit experts with a lot of actual experience is quite telling. Because the media loves to parade unqualified people as experts because they’ll spin something into a political story. So I’m sure they would immediately jump at the opportunity, if they haven’t already tried to make it happen, to get someone with the actual qualifications to spin one.
And yet they don’t, even though the same people who are most likely to accuse them of illegally manipulating the data, are constantly complaining (and often justifiably so) about all the government employees pushing their political agendas to the media and all they want is them to do their jobs and not push their agenda.
It’s almost like pushing political agendas isn’t really the problem, so much as it’s just not pushing the agenda they want.
Posted on 2/5/24 at 6:51 am to slackster
quote:
How far off do you think they are? Cumulative ADP is within 10% of BLS numbers since Biden took office.
The city and county numbers are extremely accurate. We had a pretty localized hurricane event back in 2018 and the reflective change the BLS reported was pretty much exact to what we were seeing through survey reporting. It took 16 months for the local job market to recover and then we saw almost an exact disruption from Covid.
The people who think that Biden calls the BLS and tells them what to report are insane. At this point it’s just easier to call anything that doesn’t help their political narrative as fake.
Posted on 2/5/24 at 8:55 am to SDVTiger
quote:Democrat playbook; Page 32
They did the same thing last Jan when they claimed there was 800k jobs created
1. Announce intentionally exaggerated numbers and make people believe you're a financial genius and will lead them to the land of Milk & Honey.
2. Two weeks later, announce an "accounting error" and only 2% of the people hear the real numbers.
Posted on 2/5/24 at 10:10 am to Bard
quote:
There really needs to be some firings and replacements over the levels of swing we are seeing.
Since making that post I've gone back and looked at state-reported numbers versus BLS reporting for each state and they correlate (I went through only about half the states and found only one percentage off and it was actually a higher job-creation number than what BLS reported).
After that I dug around in Jobless Claims (new and continued) as well as SNAP, Section 8 and LFPR. New jobless claims are fairly unchanged (remaining low), welfare enrollment has remained unchanged, but continued claims has been slowly climbing since its bottom in October 2022. When looking at LFPR, it seems the brunt of people who have dropped out of the labor market since COVID are Boomers and early X'rs (55+) and Gen X/Millenials (25-54 age group). Gen Z (or whatever they are being called now, 16-24) has either increased (16-19) or made it back to around pre-COVID levels (20-24).
What I glean from all of this is that there's a lot of quick job-hopping, but those who are taking unemployment are staying on it longer but not (yet?) enrolling in welfare programs. When looking at hours worked and part-time job statistics, a growing number of workers are working multiple part-time jobs to make up for getting fewer hours (the lowest since amount of hours since 2010).
So perhaps the big swings we see in adjustments are indicative of a more chaotic employment environment?
This post was edited on 2/5/24 at 2:15 pm
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