Is there going to be another retraction in oil prices?

I don't think we get higher than $45 before US storage stops building. Once US storage builds stop for about 3-4 consecutive weeks that will be a sign to me that oil prices can find some stability. I would look for the market to edge back towards $30-$35 unless some of the excess supply can clear. Bankruptcies could help reign in more capex from some of the shale drillers that caused this glut. They are painful but necessary to clear the market out and rebalance. Linn looks like it could be a trigger for others on the edge to capitulate.

Thanks I will check that out. The surplus keeps rising and nothing definitive has come out of China that suggest they arent heading for a recession. Add to that the huge back log of completions that are waiting to be done in all the shale fields and I have to think that we will see another dip.

I would think so but nobody really knows for sure

Yes....No.....Maybe!!????

I was just basing my opinion on what Abraxas' forward plan. The larger companies are probably already doing that. Thanks for link PetreauxCat. Are you still in Dallas?

If they need $50 WTI or Brent, they're going to have issues in my estimation. Off shore rigs with 80% fixed costs are breaking even, after royalties, at $35. That is a smaller exploration company with cost of interest. A larger producer should be making money almost down to the $20's.

Some frakers can make money in the $20's.

BP Maddog breaks even in the $20's. I know that, I'm sure that's the same with thunderhorse and Atlantis. Those are some amazing assets.

LLOG said that they break even in deepwater in the $30's

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I know the answer is a crap shoot at best but what's the consensus on whether or not we see another temporary dip in oil prices? I have been holding back one last cash reserve for another round of buying but I'm not so sure if we're going to see another drop, thinking now may be the time to get in.

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I would be almost 100% certian there is a drop coming, the only reason for this rise is a foolish hope that OPEC and Russia are going to collude to prop up prices, that aint going to happen.

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Is there going to be another retraction in oil prices?

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Yes, it is almost a certainty. I'd say there is a 95% of oil prices dropping again, with the remaining 5% devoted to a Black Swan.

Reasons:
1. If Russia and OPEC agree to a production freeze, that frozen production still vastly exceeds demand.
2. If #1 happens, Russia and OPEC's members have proven to be untrustworthy after their last several attempts to control prices. The deals fall apart, and Saudi Arabia is often the one to get screwed.
3. Iran is still working on getting their production up to pre-sanction levels. In addition, Iraq's war with ISIS shut down a vital oil pipeline that delivers oil to Turkey. That pipeline will be getting back online soon.
4. Oil prices at these levels delay what will fix the oil glut: over-leveraged US oil companies going bankrupt. Once oil passed $35, UPL and several other E&P's that were weeks or a few months from bankruptcy suddenly had a glimmer of hope, which you can see in their stock prices. They'll try to pump as much as they can to avoid bankruptcy now.
5. The US oil companies that do not face imminent bankruptcy can take advantage of these prices by hedging their production and bringing online new wells (or previously shut down wells) that are profitable at these prices. Rig count today was up by 1, and it will go up further the longer prices stay at these levels or go higher. And this means more production...
6. US oil storage is at 90% capacity. Yes, 90%. And refinery maintenance season is looming, which will only increase stockpiles. Combine this with #4 and #5, and US storage could reach 100%.

If the US hits 100% storage capacity, prices will drop like a rock. Remember that oil prices are determined by futures contracts, and futures contracts are contracts to deliver a certain amount of some commodity at a certain place and time. The place for oil to be delivered is the storage at Cushing, OK. I'll let you ponder what future prices will do when there is no room for the product to be delivered and what will happen to all of the excess oil that will still be produced until prices drop sufficiently.

In summary, the oil bounce is due to oil bulls running off of Russia and OPEC rumours, meetings, and proposals that won't be passed/followed. The bulls are dangerously ignoring the fundamentals and are, in fact, fueling the glut instead of allowing market forces to slowly fix it.

I'm going to keep watching oil. The glut will end at some point (though it will probably take years), and the fundamentals will improve. I'm thinking of buying MLP's when that happens - ones with good financials and good past and present dividends. But until then, I'm sitting on cash because I'd rather wait for an opportunity instead of try to force one.