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re: Is "smart money" piling into oil once the calendar flips to January?
Posted on 12/29/15 at 12:32 pm to TJG210
Posted on 12/29/15 at 12:32 pm to TJG210
quote:
I don't think you can just make a blanket assumption that since the last oil bear lasted 20 years that this one will as well.
It's as good a guess as any. Commodities in general have 20 year bear markets followed by 10 year bulls. Gold does it, grains do it, softs do it.
I think a lot of it is driven by currency cycles, but that's just a theory.
This post was edited on 12/29/15 at 2:20 pm
0
Posted on 12/29/15 at 2:27 pm to LSU0358
I was just curious, I have no idea but if I agreed with the 20 years I'd jump ship to another industry tomorrow.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 11:10 am to RidiculousHype
Might be a stupid question, but when you say invest in Oil are we talking investing in major production companies or are there funds that are considered Oil Funds. I am not investment savvy so sorry if this question comes off as naive
Posted on 12/30/15 at 11:49 am to thedogman
quote:
but when you say invest in Oil are we talking investing in major production companies or are there funds that are considered Oil Funds
Not stupid at all.
A pure play would be a speculative fund that tracks the price of oil and gas.
You could also play a company in the industry. While oil and gas prices will be a factor, there is also the whole running the company factor. Different companies are set up to perform differently in certain situations.
A fully integrated major probably is a safer bet, with less risk and less reward.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 12:10 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
LSUFanHouston
Thank you that makes sense.
Posted on 1/1/16 at 11:52 pm to FunroePete
quote:
Could you give insight into why this would happen?
TIA
Basically, this:
Posted on 1/7/16 at 9:25 am to RidiculousHype
Don't want to start a new thread....
When do we jump into this?
When do we jump into this?
Posted on 1/7/16 at 10:04 am to I Love Bama
quote:
When do we jump into this?
Why catch a falling knife? Wait for a bottom and play the other side if you want to play this. I would imagine that timeframe could be towards the back half of 2016 or 2017 as the market has not balanced yet.
Posted on 1/7/16 at 1:23 pm to TigerDog83
I mean, if you are going long it seems like a decent play to find a good dividend oil stock and just hang on for the ride
But, I suppose that depends on your definition of long
We have talked about trying to accurately time the market in here a lot....if everyone knew the perfect time we would all be ballers
But, I suppose that depends on your definition of long
We have talked about trying to accurately time the market in here a lot....if everyone knew the perfect time we would all be ballers
Posted on 1/7/16 at 1:57 pm to Shankopotomus
quote:
We have talked about trying to accurately time the market in here a lot
You can't time the market, but you can find low-risk entries.
Everyone, especially very intelligent people, want to find "reasons" why market cycles shift on a dime. Often, by the time the "reasons" become clear, the move is over and the big money has been made. Cycles change because of sentiment more than anything.
Posted on 1/7/16 at 5:44 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
Cycles change because of sentiment more than anything.
When war breaks out in the ME between Iran and Saudi Arabia, jump in with both feet. Even if for a short trade. There will be an immediate spike based on irrational fear, until things get sorted out.
It may be a short term spike (if major production is not affected) or it may be a long term swing (if major production goes off-line for an extended period). Not sure the closing of the Suez has the effect it once did, as stockpiles are very large worldwide. Would be interesting to study that phenomenon......
Posted on 1/8/16 at 10:22 am to RidiculousHype
“Oil experts, economists, and government officials who have attempted in recent years to predict the future demand and prices of oil have had only marginally better success than those who foretell the advent of earthquakes or the second coming of the Messiah.”
- US Foreign Service Officer James Akins, 1973
Still applicable.
- US Foreign Service Officer James Akins, 1973
Still applicable.
Posted on 1/8/16 at 2:22 pm to cwill
Will the potential aramco iPo have any affect on the markets? I assume that will be the final nail for opec.
Posted on 1/8/16 at 10:23 pm to TJG210
No.
Posted on 1/9/16 at 10:29 am to RidiculousHype
This is an eye opening chart.
I've gone ahead and opened up a bi-weekly re-investment plan & DRIP with XOM. Hopefully in ~25 years this will be a solid investment
I've gone ahead and opened up a bi-weekly re-investment plan & DRIP with XOM. Hopefully in ~25 years this will be a solid investment
Posted on 1/12/16 at 10:07 pm to LSUmajek
quote:
This is an eye opening chart.
I've gone ahead and opened up a bi-weekly re-investment plan & DRIP with XOM. Hopefully in ~25 years this will be a solid investment
Not so fast. The support line was broken today (see blue arrow below). If it closes the week below that support line, all bets are off. It is still a strong setup but watch it carefully the next few days.
This post was edited on 1/21/17 at 6:17 pm
Posted on 1/21/17 at 6:14 pm to RidiculousHype
Revisiting this thread from a year ago. Oil has doubled since the Feb lows.
Posted on 1/21/17 at 9:37 pm to RidiculousHype
Very happy I've been wrong
Posted on 1/22/17 at 1:07 am to RidiculousHype
It will drop again.
Posted on 1/22/17 at 6:18 pm to GREENHEAD22
quote:
It will drop again.
sure...
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