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Started By
Message
Is GOOGL a good dip buy or is this ad scandal going to be a big overhang?
Posted on 3/25/17 at 11:17 am
Posted on 3/25/17 at 11:17 am
I dont know if you've kept up with whats going on but basically Google was $875 monday and got down to $829 yesterday on the news that came out this week that some of their ads on youtube were showing up on terrorists youtube channels and many huge advertisers have suspended their campaigns
I was reading some stats and it seems like Youtube gets somewhere around 5 hours a minute of video uploaded to their platform and to really implement moderators would be a very tough thing to do. What do you guys think about this matter, will it be something big and snowball moving forward or is it a great buying opportunity? FWIW it just closed below its 50 dma which is not good but from a valuation standpoint GOOGL is cheap, the PEG, which to me is the #1 metric when buying a stock is close to 1, for comparison AMZN is abt 2.5. That is the PE ratio to growth. Google just had I want to say 22% yoy revenue growth while apple actually declined and with where the market caps are now, google is about 25% behind apple. Financially they have around $100B in cash and could start paying dividends if they wanted to but they're really intent on investing in their moonshot programs and other VC projects.
Some of their VC investments are amazing, here is the whole list
LINK
Some of their investments are
jet.com( recently sold to walmart)
uber (7%)
spacex (10%)
slack
docusign
Anyways just curious what you guys think about the current situation, I have a cost basis in the $680 range and I always felt google was a lifetime hold but it seems like this ad issue could extend to many things like ads on extremist blogs.
quote:
PepsiCo, Wal-Mart Stores and Starbucks on Friday confirmed that they have also suspended their advertising on YouTube after the Wall Street Journal found Google's automated programs placed their brands on five videos containing racist content. AT&T, Verizon, Johnson & Johnson, Volkswagen and several other companies pulled ads earlier this week.
I was reading some stats and it seems like Youtube gets somewhere around 5 hours a minute of video uploaded to their platform and to really implement moderators would be a very tough thing to do. What do you guys think about this matter, will it be something big and snowball moving forward or is it a great buying opportunity? FWIW it just closed below its 50 dma which is not good but from a valuation standpoint GOOGL is cheap, the PEG, which to me is the #1 metric when buying a stock is close to 1, for comparison AMZN is abt 2.5. That is the PE ratio to growth. Google just had I want to say 22% yoy revenue growth while apple actually declined and with where the market caps are now, google is about 25% behind apple. Financially they have around $100B in cash and could start paying dividends if they wanted to but they're really intent on investing in their moonshot programs and other VC projects.
Some of their VC investments are amazing, here is the whole list
LINK
Some of their investments are
jet.com( recently sold to walmart)
uber (7%)
spacex (10%)
slack
docusign
Anyways just curious what you guys think about the current situation, I have a cost basis in the $680 range and I always felt google was a lifetime hold but it seems like this ad issue could extend to many things like ads on extremist blogs.
Posted on 3/25/17 at 12:45 pm to dabigfella
I jumped off late January after it bolted from $780 to $850 in about 2 months. I dipped my toe back in at $833. I have been wanting back in for months but it kept escalating on me. I took what might be a half position if it keeps going lower. I have decent exposure through other funds but I like GOOGL prospects enough to throw more weight its way.
The core search business seems to be slowing but I suspect they will move to more cloud orientation and I like their knowledge base combined with home, auto, and video applications.
I love the huge net margin (20%+). Like many large caps its got beaucoup dollars offshore that likely gets repatriated under the T administration. Hopefully they will spend it wisely.
The core search business seems to be slowing but I suspect they will move to more cloud orientation and I like their knowledge base combined with home, auto, and video applications.
I love the huge net margin (20%+). Like many large caps its got beaucoup dollars offshore that likely gets repatriated under the T administration. Hopefully they will spend it wisely.
Posted on 3/25/17 at 12:52 pm to dabigfella
RE: some of there VC activity . . .
I like the AI, Robotics, Life Sciences businesses if they can can gain meaningful synergy in those areas.
I like the AI, Robotics, Life Sciences businesses if they can can gain meaningful synergy in those areas.
Posted on 3/25/17 at 1:09 pm to ynlvr
quote:
The core search business seems to be slowing but I suspect they will move to more cloud orientation and I like their knowledge base combined with home, auto, and video applications.
I love the huge net margin (20%+). Like many large caps its got beaucoup dollars offshore that likely gets repatriated under the T administration. Hopefully they will spend it wisely.
It is slowing, but not quite as bad as you think, overall they still had massive YoY growth while apple still declined. Conversely Apple's share price has run away and there is $130B+ difference in market cap while there was a point not long ago where alphabet had surpassed apple in market cap for a short period. If you look at their domination,
1.90% of the smartphone market is android.
2. they have the #1 and #2 most visited websites on earth(google & youtube)
3. half the planet doesn't even have internet at this point
4. Nominal debt, $4B, cash is close to $100b....thats where apple started div
5. Massive lead in self driving, waymo logged like 650k self driving miles last year
6. VC, who knows what these will be worth long term,remember ali baba and yahoo?
7. Youtube TV is launching soon and for $35/mo will kill direct tv now bc u get all the local channels too
8.I imagine the cloud will be a battle for the coming decade and i like google with their cash position to come up on AWS if pricing wars heat up.
I really could go on but it just seems they have a ton of cool stuff theyre working on but of course the cash cow that finances it all is the ads and Im just not sure if this is a major problem with all the big guys suspending campaigns or if its just a short term blip. It seems really difficult with all the crawlers all over the web to filter out every little thing, I mean they could simply change titles from ISIS beheading to walking dog in the park and the content would still be brutal and get through their filters. Anyways thanks for the inputs I was just intrigued with the severity of the matter at this point.
This post was edited on 3/25/17 at 1:10 pm
Posted on 3/25/17 at 2:33 pm to dabigfella
You're making me feel better about getting back in.
It just seems the ad money will go where the eyeballs are. And Google has eyeballs by the gazillion.
quote:
but of course the cash cow that finances it all is the ads and Im just not sure if this is a major problem with all the big guys suspending campaigns
It just seems the ad money will go where the eyeballs are. And Google has eyeballs by the gazillion.
This post was edited on 3/25/17 at 2:37 pm
Posted on 3/25/17 at 2:43 pm to ynlvr
There's no finer company imo but hopefully earnings won't get impacted bc that's when it could get ugly
Posted on 3/25/17 at 2:54 pm to dabigfella
quote:
7. Youtube TV is launching soon and for $35/mo will kill direct tv now bc u get all the local channels too
DirecTV has offered local channels for years now. I have them.
Posted on 3/25/17 at 3:03 pm to Fat Bastard
Not on directtv now or direct tv go whatever the streaming is called,having the major locals is huge for sports guys looking to cut cable but still want to watch sports
This post was edited on 3/25/17 at 3:05 pm
Posted on 3/25/17 at 3:58 pm to dabigfella
quote:
Not on directtv now or direct tv go whatever the streaming is called,
hmmnnnnn
quote:
having the major locals is huge for sports guys looking to cut cable but still want to watch sports
ah i see. yeah we used to have DTV and cox for local sports. they finally implemented local channels for us years and years ago thankfully. It allowed me to cut the cox TV bill. just have them for internet now.
Posted on 3/25/17 at 4:09 pm to Fat Bastard
Like me personally, I have to put up with ATT and its garbage cable packages if I want to watch my local teams. Yes NFL Sunday Ticket exists, I have it, but your local teams + all the tv games(which typically are the good ones) are blacked out. You can buy an antenna for $20 at best buy, and thank god they dont look like the old antennas, but their quality is still incredibly mediocre and always cuts in and out.
Direct TV launched their direct tv now service a few months ago and its $35/mo for the first 3 months then goes to $70 but it still doesn't have the local channels. Sunday night NFL is on NBC, World Series & Football on Fox, ABC has the NBA finals and other NBA games. So the basic channels are pretty important component that Direct Tv doesnt have in the streaming package and youtube tv has promised to have.
I imagine when youtube tv comes out soon at $35 while direct now is at $70 they're going to have a tough time retaining customers.
Why Youtube TV Is going To Be Big
Im not gonna miss any of those channels except TNT for their basketball, Im actually quite shocked a liberal stronghold like CNN isn't in Google's package but I wont complain
Direct TV launched their direct tv now service a few months ago and its $35/mo for the first 3 months then goes to $70 but it still doesn't have the local channels. Sunday night NFL is on NBC, World Series & Football on Fox, ABC has the NBA finals and other NBA games. So the basic channels are pretty important component that Direct Tv doesnt have in the streaming package and youtube tv has promised to have.
I imagine when youtube tv comes out soon at $35 while direct now is at $70 they're going to have a tough time retaining customers.
Why Youtube TV Is going To Be Big
quote:
OK, so who’s missing so far? Well, AMC, CNN, Comedy Central, Discovery, Food Network, MTV and TNT aren’t there, which is a bit of a bummer, and there aren’t as many channels for kids on YouTube TV as there are on Sling TV – a potential problem for parents.
Im not gonna miss any of those channels except TNT for their basketball, Im actually quite shocked a liberal stronghold like CNN isn't in Google's package but I wont complain
This post was edited on 3/25/17 at 4:13 pm
Posted on 3/25/17 at 5:14 pm to dabigfella
I've had Vue, and currently have DTV Now and am keeping up with the streaming services. Vue and DTV Now have locals in select markets. If you remember a few decades ago when DirecTv had to negotiate with each market to get locals, that's happening all over again. Basically if it's an owned and operated station, they offer it. Apart from that, they are negotiating with the biggest market locals, or their holding company, to get locals.
Youtube Tv will not be offered nationwide to start, much less offered with locals nationwide. Basically they are only offering it where they can offer locals.
Youtube Tv will not be offered nationwide to start, much less offered with locals nationwide. Basically they are only offering it where they can offer locals.
Posted on 3/25/17 at 5:20 pm to WavinWilly
Fair enough good analysis, Either way it's never gonna really move the needle at google anytime soon. Any insights on the current ad debacle they're facing?
Posted on 3/25/17 at 5:29 pm to dabigfella
quote:
Any insights on the current ad debacle they're facing?
Unfortunately this was the first I have heard of it. Just my assumption, but I'm sure GOOG will say they've modified their filtering algorithm and it will eventually blow over.
Posted on 3/25/17 at 6:33 pm to WavinWilly
Google Surpasses Apple To Become Most Valuable Public Company
13 months ago Google surpassed Apple for largest market cap, since then Google has had 20% YoY growth and Apple has had a YoY decline and now the market caps stand at
Apple - $735B
Alphabet - $563B
Youtube as a division of alphabet only does $4B/year in revenue, so thats why I tend to think this isn't that big a deal, but the $45 drop this week was $30B+ in lost market cap over it, so I dont know if the market is saying google has a bigger problem as alot of their ads have to be looked at now. Youtube is massive as a platform, but it doesn't make that much money for them today but the potential is there
YouTube Users Watch 1 Billion Hours/Day, Soon To Outpace TV
Overall I dont know if Apple has gone up too fast too soon, but its insane to think Alphabet had a bigger market cap 1 year ago & then followed that up with 20% growth while apple declined and yet Apple is now worth $170B more today.
The market cap correlation seems a little out of whack at this point, not sure if its time for a short apple, long google pair trade, but google seems very undervalued if this ad issue is not a big deal.
13 months ago Google surpassed Apple for largest market cap, since then Google has had 20% YoY growth and Apple has had a YoY decline and now the market caps stand at
Apple - $735B
Alphabet - $563B
Youtube as a division of alphabet only does $4B/year in revenue, so thats why I tend to think this isn't that big a deal, but the $45 drop this week was $30B+ in lost market cap over it, so I dont know if the market is saying google has a bigger problem as alot of their ads have to be looked at now. Youtube is massive as a platform, but it doesn't make that much money for them today but the potential is there
YouTube Users Watch 1 Billion Hours/Day, Soon To Outpace TV
quote:
In total, there are 400 hours of video uploaded to YouTube every minute, which equates to 65 years of video every day. To get through all of that content, YouTube's algorithms give viewers a nudge of what to watch next on both desktop and mobile, growing the service's numbers year-over-year.
Overall I dont know if Apple has gone up too fast too soon, but its insane to think Alphabet had a bigger market cap 1 year ago & then followed that up with 20% growth while apple declined and yet Apple is now worth $170B more today.
The market cap correlation seems a little out of whack at this point, not sure if its time for a short apple, long google pair trade, but google seems very undervalued if this ad issue is not a big deal.
This post was edited on 3/25/17 at 6:38 pm
Posted on 3/25/17 at 7:07 pm to dabigfella
quote:
I imagine when youtube tv comes out soon at $35 while direct now is at $70 they're going to have a tough time retaining customers.
I have had DTV for 20 years........and am happy however....if this youtube TV can deliver the goods at that price i may have to seriously look into it.
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