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dabigfella
Houston Astros Fan
Member since Mar 2016
6629 posts

Investing In Tesla
Rocket and I were talking in the other thread, and I know others have chimed in with their responses, but I would love to have our own thread to discuss tesla bc I personally do believe there is a reason the market cap has surpassed Ford and GM and it has nothing to do with a giant bubble as the media portrays it. So i'd love to get other insightful takes on the company and where they think its headed short term and long term. Short Term ie 18 months I'll say $500-700 and longer term like a decade, I think its one of the largest companies on earth worth $1t+

I personally don't see any way for big auto to compete at this current point in time with the overhang of dealer networks in place, too much invested in ICE assets, and lack of a gigafactory to ever produce more than a handful of BEV's but with market penetration of .01% to this point but with none of the constraints of unions or ice assets weighing it down, it seems like tesla has a huge leg up over all the incumbents.

I'd love to hear others bearish and bullish takes on whats probably the most polarizing stock in the entire market, certainly one of the most heavily shorted at over 30%. Bulls and Bears have opposing views that make it such an incredible story stock.

Ill start with a few graphics

Image: https://s9.postimg.org/ydrt8dldr/C-_V85_IIXYAMv-t-.jpg


Image: https://s7.postimg.org/52iphzw6z/pic1_9.33.46_AM.png


Image: https://s12.postimg.org/8ahpvdg19/C8_TAvz_MXg_AEFvz_R.jpg


Image: https://s4.postimg.org/5v0s6t9d9/Price-_Parity-1.png
This post was edited on 4/27 at 4:18 pm


dabigfella
Houston Astros Fan
Member since Mar 2016
6629 posts

re: Investing In Tesla
ok we have downvotes....can you at least be men about it and discuss your rationale on why you downvoted, or do you wanna be little girls and downvote without even saying why?


kc8876
LSU Fan
Lafayette
Member since May 2012
1988 posts

re: Investing In Tesla
Hey man, I have 200 dollars to invest, what do you think I should do with it?


rocket31
Toledo Fan
Member since Jan 2008
30951 posts

re: Investing In Tesla
quote:

Short Term ie 18 months I'll say $500-700


i agree

short term, if anyone is looking to invest now, pay attention to this channel, you might be able to snag it between 280-290

Image: http://finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=TSLA&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l


Mouthulcer
LSU Fan
Metairie
Member since Feb 2015
639 posts

re: Investing In Tesla
CYTR


kc8876
LSU Fan
Lafayette
Member since May 2012
1988 posts

re: Investing In Tesla
I was joking


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01
dabigfella
Houston Astros Fan
Member since Mar 2016
6629 posts

re: Investing In Tesla
rocket it has more to do with Tesla is currently trading like a software company at 7x sales of $7B last year. Musk is projecting 500k cars next year, whats the average starting price? Let's say $60k with a blended average of the cheap model 3 with the S and X.....we're talking $30B in revenue, with a massive jump from $7B last year. Let's say they miss and end up at 300k cars bc of production issues, thats still $18B in revenue, lets slap a lower multiple of 5x sales on it, thats still $90B or $550+ per share


kc8876
LSU Fan
Lafayette
Member since May 2012
1988 posts

re: Investing In Tesla
There's too much creativity and innovation in the company to not be bullish on them. It's a great opportunity at 300


dabigfella
Houston Astros Fan
Member since Mar 2016
6629 posts

re: Investing In Tesla
still being sarcastic? Care to elaborate? I love it, 6 wise guys with downvotes, yet nobody gives their bearish stance on the stock. Classic Tigerdroppings.
This post was edited on 4/26 at 6:11 pm


southernelite
McNeese State Fan
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2009
49115 posts

re: Investing In Tesla
So how do those numbers justify a larger market cap than ford/gm.

Ford sells over 1.5 million vehicles a year and had $151 billion in revenue and over $4bn in revenue.




kc8876
LSU Fan
Lafayette
Member since May 2012
1988 posts

re: Investing In Tesla
quote:

still being sarcastic? Care to elaborate?


I'm being serious. For all the reasons you've talked about the last couple weeks. You've touched on a lot of good points, and the projections even on the low end are still good. It has great potential, there's too much innovation in the company to not invest in it


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01
texag7
USA Fan
College Station
Member since Apr 2014
19233 posts

re: Investing In Tesla
Image: http://image.ibb.co/gaTE85/IMG_3218.jpg



quote:

Musk is projecting 500k cars next year,


I doubt it. They've failed to meet 20+ Musk projections in the past 5 years.
This post was edited on 4/26 at 6:27 pm


dabigfella
Houston Astros Fan
Member since Mar 2016
6629 posts

re: Investing In Tesla
well here is why

1) Ford Revenue is very low margin bc they sell the cars to a franchisee who actually makes the bulk of the profits. Tesla has no middle man so their gross margins are over 25% on $100-150k cars. Those margins will increase as automation really takes over, they just showed off their new fleet of robots for model 3 yesterday. Eventually these cars will be built fully by robots.


2) Did you see how they had the braking issue that made Consumer Reports downgrade Tesla today bc of it, guess what Tesla did, they fixed the issue with an over the air update. The cars are amazing, they have constant updates like a cell phone in place.

3) Tesla has a full monopoly on service, there are no outside service shops to take your car too like you do with your ford or gm.

4) Look at the balance sheet of say Mercedes, $140B revenue, and $8B profit. That's incredibly low margin, Tesla does those same sales it would net $45B+.

5) demand? Tesla doesn't even advertise at all yet they haver over 600k reservations allegedly at this moment for the model 3. The model 3 will go head to head with: The mercedes C class,bmw 3 series, toyota camry, and a ton of other cars that sell in that price range of $35k. The model 3 will go 200 miles, will have less maintenance(no oil changes, service,etc) and no money spent on gasoline. Bears will tell you that the only reason people buy teslas are for the tax credit, while helpful $7500 doesnt sway someone paying $100k+.....will it sway buyers of the cheap car? Sure.

Here's the kicker, bears will tell you that after 200k cars sold the tax credit phases out, the IRS website will tell you otherwise

LINK

quote:

Qualified Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit (IRC 30D) Phase Out
The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period.


This is why Musk pushed up production 2 years and he's rushing to get the model 3 out, so he can maximize how many people can take the $7500 credit on this cheaper model. It's going to be a huge kicker

6) Mobility as a service, I posted in the first post an image, its worth $0 annually today, but is projected as a $10-12 trillion dollar annual industry. What is it? Simply put, self driving taxi service, basically hailing a tesla to pick you up without a driver and paying for it. You might say well google,uber,etc are all working on it. Well Barclays who actually doesn't even like Tesla just said today that Tesla will be the leader in big auto data

LINK

7) Ford and GM, are they in the energy storage and generation business? They are not. Tesla meanwhile just powered the entire island of Kauai with their power walls and 55,000 solar panels and that is just the beginning, Musk said Tesla Energy would one day far exceed the auto business of tesla.

LINK

8) The gigafactory itself which no other automaker has will be the biggest building on earth when its done soon, it will produce more batteries than the entire world put together currently does. It will allow tesla to produce 150 GWH of batteries annually at 1 factory while GM meanwhile will allegedly kill tesla with its bolt? Well that bolt is limited to 3 GWH total of batteries bc thats all they could purchase from LG. What does 3 GWH get you? It gets you 50k cars at 60 GWH which was tesla's smallest battery and they discontinued it this month to focus on bigger batteries.

9) Tesla already showed us that the p100d is the worlds fastest car, with a battery cost of allegedly $135 kw/hr and dropping that means the worlds fastest car is powered by a $13,500 and dropping power plant. What does that say about a Lamborghini with an engine that cost way more to build and service while Teslas require just a $600 annual service? The battery motor is basically a magnet and a spindle its incredibly simple.

10) Tesla has the infrastructure in place today to drive your tesla nationwide and charge it for free at their supercharger network I posted above. You cant take your BMW i3 which only goes 80 miles on a charge btw, you cant drive LA to new york and charge it for free along the way, you can with a tesla. Charging time currently is around 30 min and as with all tech that will improve drastically in the coming years.

So all in all while Ford and GM are legit automakers with constraints of franchisees,pensions, and unions, Tesla has none of those problems as of right now and are fighting as we speak to keep the unions out. Tesla makers higher margins per car, has a monopoly on service, and is going all in on penetrating the nearly 85M car a year auto industry. To this point they've had production issues not demand issues, and the model 3 will be the a huge success for them with the demand it has shown to this point
This post was edited on 4/26 at 6:37 pm


dabigfella
Houston Astros Fan
Member since Mar 2016
6629 posts

re: Investing In Tesla
quote:

I doubt it. They've failed to meet 20+ Musk projections in the past 5 years.


Please post every one of those 20 musk projections you allege they haven't hit? They might be late on some of them, but Musk always does what he says. He hit on every point he made in his master plan part 1 a decade ago. Im not sure why you would bet against a man who hasn't let anyone down yet.


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06
kc8876
LSU Fan
Lafayette
Member since May 2012
1988 posts

re: Investing In Tesla
quote:

I doubt it. They've failed to meet 20+ Musk projections in the past 5 years.


As a long term buy it's a good investment. Lots of things can happen short term, but if you hold on to it for long enough and be patient it's gonna make you some money. Too much potential to pass up
This post was edited on 4/26 at 6:39 pm


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03
hungryone
LSU Fan
river parishes
Member since Sep 2010
5841 posts

re: Investing In Tesla
I downvoted simply because of your dumb sexist language.


dabigfella
Houston Astros Fan
Member since Mar 2016
6629 posts

re: Investing In Tesla
I'd love to see 20 failed musk promises from you texag, you're just a hater as always. I posted links to most of the points I made, Id love to see you do the same with a comment like that


kc8876
LSU Fan
Lafayette
Member since May 2012
1988 posts

re: Investing In Tesla
quote:

I downvoted simply because of your dumb sexist language.


Respond to the right person dipshit


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33
texag7
USA Fan
College Station
Member since Apr 2014
19233 posts

re: Investing In Tesla
LINK

quote:

In past five years, Tesla failed to meet more than 20 of his projections, and missed 10 goals by nearly a year on average; Musk says he ‘doesn’t set targets that I know can’t be met’


dabigfella
Houston Astros Fan
Member since Mar 2016
6629 posts

re: Investing In Tesla
quote:

I downvoted simply because of your dumb sexist language.


how about instead of whining about the meaningless semantics you give us some real insight in this thread. What a novel concept, just like Texags you post some idiotic comment with absolutely zero insight on the stock with links or anything.


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