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re: I got out of equities on Thursday because of advice from someone I respect

Posted on 6/4/11 at 4:51 pm to
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 6/4/11 at 4:51 pm to
quote:

They were in border line histerics on many news shows and I haven't seen a positive article in a week and a half. I went in long on S&P's late last week.
The S&P VIX is still much too low. It's got to get to at least the mid-30's before the fear factor becomes investable for an "all-in" basis.
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
7918 posts
Posted on 6/4/11 at 7:27 pm to
At a major bottom I agree. I wouldn't call this a major bottom (if this is indeed the bottom) but more of a medium term bottom.
Posted by Baylor
Member since May 2009
523 posts
Posted on 6/5/11 at 7:05 am to
quote:

Hunh? It's been 5 straight weeks of decline for the S&P 500......I sold 4 weeks ago. Moved everything into Govt. backed securities. Expect the market to be flat at best over the next 2 months.....downside risk is much greater than upside, at the moment.


Yea, this thread is several weeks old.
I sold about 3.5 weeks ago. About a week after my buddy told me to sell.
Check the date stamp on my 1st post.
The Dow has dropped about 500 points since I started this thread.

He told me to get in Late Jan 09 which was practically the bottom, and told me to get out 4 weeks ago.
Posted by Blakely Bimbo
Member since Dec 2010
1183 posts
Posted on 6/5/11 at 8:53 am to
quote:

He told me to get in Late Jan 09 which was practically the bottom, and told me to get out 4 weeks ago.


The bottom was March 9, 2009. He was a bit early, but very few can time it perfectly.
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 6/5/11 at 12:55 pm to
Close enough for government work.

Both of those are very impressive.
Posted by Paulu
Mandeville
Member since Dec 2006
4440 posts
Posted on 6/5/11 at 3:40 pm to
How about this one for a good reason?
Fiat currencies have always failed.
The Fed is purposely printed money not worth the paper it is not written on. Inflation is here and not leaving anytime soon. The US dollar is going to be a thing of the past.
China just dumped 97% of its short US Bonds. We have to pay them 1.5 trillion in a year on renewals.
Posted by Paulu
Mandeville
Member since Dec 2006
4440 posts
Posted on 6/5/11 at 3:40 pm to
How about this one for a good reason?
Fiat currencies have always failed.
The Fed is purposely printed money not worth the paper it is not written on. Inflation is here and not leaving anytime soon. The US dollar is going to be a thing of the past.
China just dumped 97% of its short US Bonds. We have to pay them 1.5 trillion in a year on renewals.
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 6/5/11 at 4:05 pm to
As if one copy of that shitty post wasn't enough.

Posted by Broke
AKA Buttercup
Member since Sep 2006
65044 posts
Posted on 6/5/11 at 4:48 pm to
quote:

As if one copy of that shitty post wasn't enough.


Fo real
Posted by Paulu
Mandeville
Member since Dec 2006
4440 posts
Posted on 6/5/11 at 6:57 pm to
Keep your investments in the market and the US bond. Let me know where you stand on the welfare line in 10 years.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 6/5/11 at 8:39 pm to
I have a feeling you're a fan of gold.
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 6/5/11 at 11:30 pm to
I have a feeling he can't tell me why a global bond index is inferior to gold either.

These types are literally the dumbest people I have ever met, but they are always the ones calling someone else an idiot.
Posted by Paulu
Mandeville
Member since Dec 2006
4440 posts
Posted on 6/6/11 at 5:58 am to
Sure - what backs a global bond index? The faith on the country(s) to pay?
Never said you were an idiot but if you actually believe in the good faith and credit of the current US monetary system, I would suggest you think about what happens when China dumps our long term bonds and the QE BS is buying all of its own debt.
Gold - expensive. However, do you ever wonder why the creditor nations are buying gold and silver big time? Think they may be setting up to dump the dollar as a reserve currency and go back to a monetary system backed by something other than toilet paper?
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 6/6/11 at 9:02 am to
quote:

Think they may be setting up to dump the dollar as a reserve currency and go back to a monetary system backed by something other than toilet paper?

No major economy can return to the gold standard to back its currency. There is not enough gold in the world to back the amount of major economies' monetary base. It's simple math.
Posted by The ATL
Atlanta
Member since Jul 2010
825 posts
Posted on 6/6/11 at 9:18 am to
strong growth in money supply which is up 10%. When QE1 ended last yr, MZM was contracting with a negative growth rate. Strong growth rate is typically supportive for stock prices.

Also, Presidential Cycle Year 3 June-Aug avgs 4.3%...just saying you may want to play a summer rally.
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
7918 posts
Posted on 6/6/11 at 9:25 am to
quote:

gold skyrocketing


I exited my gold shorts...not looking like it's ready to drop yet. Still long S&P's.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 6/6/11 at 10:27 am to
quote:

I exited my gold shorts...not looking like it's ready to drop yet.


Here is an article this morning on Soros selling his gold in the first quarter of this year, fwiw.

Sold $800 million in 1st QTR. Thinks gold bubble is near bursting.
Posted by Paulu
Mandeville
Member since Dec 2006
4440 posts
Posted on 6/6/11 at 12:39 pm to
Good point - US would have to raise Gold to $40k/oz to catch up to the dollar inventory. Plausible if we have hyperinflation.

Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 6/6/11 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

US would have to raise Gold to $40k/oz to catch up to the dollar inventory.
I don't know if that figure is near correct, but my question to you is, in your opinion, does the U.S. government set the price of gold as your post seems to suggest?
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
7918 posts
Posted on 6/6/11 at 2:43 pm to
quote:

No major economy can return to the gold standard to back its currency.


The only way it would be possible is fractional backing (now as to what fraction, who knows). I don't think it's likely to happen in either respect, but if it did, it would have to be fractional.
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