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Started By
Message
How far will this slide last?
Posted on 8/4/11 at 9:35 am
Posted on 8/4/11 at 9:35 am
I'm wanting to jump in on a discounted rate.
6
Posted on 8/4/11 at 9:37 am to wegotdatwood
My crystal ball says approximately 475 days
Posted on 8/4/11 at 9:38 am to wegotdatwood
The stock market will keep going down until it reaches its bottom. Then it will start going up.
Book it!!
Book it!!
Posted on 8/4/11 at 10:21 am to wegotdatwood
No clue wegotdatwood, but if you are still eying ASYS, I think this is a great buying opportunity. They are about to announce earning soon as well. I'll be picking up a few more shares, but what do I know. 
ETA: I always find these very interesting... if you look hard enough, you can find a green one.
LINK
LINK
ETA: I always find these very interesting... if you look hard enough, you can find a green one.
LINK
LINK
This post was edited on 8/4/11 at 10:36 am
Posted on 8/4/11 at 10:29 am to wegotdatwood
It will slide until people figure out what to do.
Bank runs in Europe. FEAR in the marketplace.
WSJ
Bank runs in Europe. FEAR in the marketplace.
quote:
Bank of New York, the world’s biggest custodian bank, announced it is charging a fee of 13 basis points for unusually large cash deposits. That has pushed money funds to move even more of their cash into already in-demand T-bills, short-term agency notes and Treasury repos. “By forcing cash out into the marketplace, demand for money-fund investments is only going to grow, forcing investors into a pool with already incredibly shallow options,” says a money fund manager. “Most importantly, if other banks follow suit, then yield levels as a whole will have no where to go but lower as investors look to remain invested.” Three-month T-bills recently yielded 0.008%, and short-term bills have been darting in and out of negative territory this morning.
WSJ
Posted on 8/4/11 at 10:36 am to Blakely Bimbo
I think now that the politicians have ceded the stage to the rest of the world, people are kind of catching up with the economic news of the past few weeks and doubly amplifying the reports coming out this week. Earnings were really overall okay, but the economic news post-Q2 has been pretty bleak. Where are these bank runs? Virtually all of the major EU banks reported strong earnings, exceptions to write-downs on Greek debt, which is what you would want to see from them in the first place. I don't get a sense (or a reason for) of palpable fear in the market, it feels much more like a slow burn to me. ETA: But after looking at facebook and seeing a bunch of people who don't know a single thing about money posting stuff about the market/Obama's birthday/random money topics, I may reverse course on this. I have no idea when it reverses course, I'll leave that to the chart guys who change their 6 month outlooks on one day changes.
This post was edited on 8/4/11 at 11:25 am
Posted on 8/4/11 at 11:25 am to kfizzle85
quote:
Where are these bank runs?
On going in Greece and now Italy.
Interbanking lending drying up.
quote:
Senior sources have revealed that leading banks, including Barclays and Standard Chartered, have radically reduced the amount of unsecured lending they are prepared to make available to eurozone banks, raising the prospect of a new credit crunch for the European banking system. Standard Chartered is understood to have withdrawn tens of billions of pounds from the eurozone inter-bank lending market in recent months and cut its overall exposure by two-thirds in the past few weeks as it has become increasingly worried about the finances of other European banks.
LINK
European Banks stock prices taking a hit.
Money piling into Swiss Franc.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 11:28 am to Blakely Bimbo
I mean they're lowering their exposures, that's not a bank run, that's prudent management. Lehman was a bank run. Washington Mutual was a bank run. Barclays and STC making less loans to PIIG banks over the couse of "a few months" is not a bank run. eta: But if there is something that will usher in a QE3, here or in the Euro area, that is certainly it.
This post was edited on 8/4/11 at 11:29 am
Posted on 8/4/11 at 11:34 am to wegotdatwood
So ECB will probably be making rate cuts and the Dollar will strengthen vs the Euro.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 11:35 am to Interception
quote:The ECB met today and voted to keep rates unchanged.
So ECB will probably be making rate cuts
Posted on 8/4/11 at 11:36 am to LSURussian
Gold is looking dangerous to hold
Posted on 8/4/11 at 11:39 am to Interception
So someone explain to me the rational as to why gold would deflate whilst we have an apparent state of heightened economic turmoil...
Posted on 8/4/11 at 11:43 am to kfizzle85
Don't really know? I see the Dollar gaining on Euro and Gold coming down with a strengthening dollar.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 11:53 am to Interception
Oh heck. I got on to learn how to time the market.
I like Russian's answer. Until it hits bottom.
I like Russian's answer. Until it hits bottom.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 1:43 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
My crystal ball says approximately 475 days
ISWYDT, but I'd say a shorter time horizon. If O looks like he's in big trouble next fall, people will place their bets before the election.
Serious answer would be if it falls below 11K, put in a buy order for 10K. That's been a rebound point the last few times.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 1:46 pm to Bestbank Tiger
I think I'm ready to get long now.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 1:54 pm to kfizzle85
Yesterday I sent an email to partner of ours that manages money in CT. He is a very well know money manager and global economist. He has been a guest on CNBC several times. I basically asked him about his thoughts on the health of the markets today. Below is his response to me:
The S&P just went through it's 200 day moving average. That is a correction not a bear market. We are still some ways away from our signals for a bear market.
This is not a bear market. Earnings are really good. As soon as the market starts focusing on earnings, the market will come back. And gold and silver will retreat.
Now is the time to be buying stocks not getting out of them. In all my writings I said this was going to be a very weak summer and it is. Starting in a couple of months we will see a big movement up in the stock market. Not because the economy is great, but because earnings are great and will continue.
The economy is what it has been for the last two years, it was just masked by all the stimulus, QE's and bailouts. But the underlying economy has been flat thru all that time. It hasn't really slowed, only compared to the artificial stimulus from the Fed and congress.
What we are seeing is noise and not important, following the growth in overall earnings is what people need to be focused on. That is in the long run what drives the stock market.
The S&P just went through it's 200 day moving average. That is a correction not a bear market. We are still some ways away from our signals for a bear market.
This is not a bear market. Earnings are really good. As soon as the market starts focusing on earnings, the market will come back. And gold and silver will retreat.
Now is the time to be buying stocks not getting out of them. In all my writings I said this was going to be a very weak summer and it is. Starting in a couple of months we will see a big movement up in the stock market. Not because the economy is great, but because earnings are great and will continue.
The economy is what it has been for the last two years, it was just masked by all the stimulus, QE's and bailouts. But the underlying economy has been flat thru all that time. It hasn't really slowed, only compared to the artificial stimulus from the Fed and congress.
What we are seeing is noise and not important, following the growth in overall earnings is what people need to be focused on. That is in the long run what drives the stock market.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 1:59 pm to saint308
Aside from the shenanigans really taking hold last week, IDK how you can say the market isn't focused on earnings when we literally are just finishing the reporting period.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 2:19 pm to kfizzle85
quote:
Aside from the shenanigans really taking hold last week, IDK how you can say the market isn't focused on earnings when we literally are just finishing the reporting period.
I didn't say it, he did. I assume he was talking about all earnings (Q1 & Q2) not just Q2. Also, the market had been focused on our debt issues, Greece, Italy, Spain pretty heavily. I assume that is why he said that once we focus back on earnings and companies making money. We should move higher. I am just passing this on, because I thought some of you would find this interesting.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 2:50 pm to saint308
Dudes it's a colloquial use, I'm not implying that you said it.
I'm just saying I disagree with his POV that markets haven't paid attention to earnings, and I think its unrealistic and pointless to not, or not expect markets, to focus on other real economic issues like sovereign debt crises.
quote:
Also, the market had been focused on our debt issues, Greece, Italy, Spain pretty heavily. I assume that is why he said that once we focus back on earnings and companies making money. We should move higher. I am just passing this on, because I thought some of you would find this interesting.
I'm just saying I disagree with his POV that markets haven't paid attention to earnings, and I think its unrealistic and pointless to not, or not expect markets, to focus on other real economic issues like sovereign debt crises.
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