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Headline and core CPI come in under MoM and YoY expectations, stocks/bonds rally
Posted on 11/14/23 at 7:53 am
Posted on 11/14/23 at 7:53 am
LINK
10y treasury down 14 bps to below 4.5%.
Stocks up 1-1.5% on the news.
Maybe Powell and Co will land this ship softly after all?
quote:
Inflation was flat in October from the previous month, providing a hopeful sign that stubbornly high prices are easing their grip on the U.S. economy.
The consumer price index, which measures a broad basket of commonly used goods and services, increased 3.2% from a year ago despite being unchanged for the month, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Labor Department on Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.1% and 3.3%.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.2% and 4%, against the forecast of 0.3% and 4.1%.
10y treasury down 14 bps to below 4.5%.
Stocks up 1-1.5% on the news.
Maybe Powell and Co will land this ship softly after all?
6
Posted on 11/14/23 at 8:02 am to slackster
quote:
Stocks up 1-1.5% on the news.
While my portfolio appreciates this; I do find it a bit distressing that so many of these companies who are making earnings expectations are doing so almost solely by virtue of layoffs. I feel like the other foot has to drop at some point.
Posted on 11/14/23 at 8:35 am to slackster
quote:
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.2% and 4%, against the forecast of 0.3% and 4.1%.
I wonder how many are gonna get tripped up by this again
Posted on 11/14/23 at 8:36 am to JohnnyKilroy
Always. And don’t forget that it’s “fake news”!!!
Posted on 11/14/23 at 8:41 am to slackster
MBS up 75bps
That Real Estate from the OT thread is gonna end up being right
That Real Estate from the OT thread is gonna end up being right
Posted on 11/14/23 at 8:54 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.2% and 4%, against the forecast of 0.3% and 4.1%.
I wonder how many are gonna get tripped up by this again
Why do they get to exclude these two things from CPI when I still have to pay for them?
It's incredibly baffling how they simply exclude two of the biggest cost drivers in the living expenses. The two things people quite literally cannot avoid in life. They don't matter in the equation anymore?
Posted on 11/14/23 at 9:01 am to slackster
These figures, whether they can be believed or not, are just noise. In the real world the damage has been done. Our currency has been debased beyond anything I have seen in my lifetime. Food inflation has been absolutely ridiculous. If you have time and have the data, look at what you are now spending on things and compare to what you were spending on the same things 2 or 3 years ago. It's shocking.
ETA that with the budget deficits we are seeing and the massive debt we are piling up at high interest rates, things aint looking so good.
ETA that with the budget deficits we are seeing and the massive debt we are piling up at high interest rates, things aint looking so good.
This post was edited on 11/14/23 at 9:07 am
Posted on 11/14/23 at 9:27 am to WhiskeyThrottle
quote:
It's incredibly baffling how they simply exclude two of the biggest cost drivers in the living expenses. The two things people quite literally cannot avoid in life. They don't matter in the equation anymore?
Got one
Posted on 11/14/23 at 9:29 am to WhiskeyThrottle
Are some of y'all really that dense? They don't ignore food and energy or leave it out of headline inflation. They exclude those items in core inflation. We know from decades worth of data that those items can wildly fluctuate and aren't a true picture of the worth of a dollar. The bottom could fall out of oil tomorrow, or it could spike to $120. We could have an avian flu that doubles the price of chicken in a month.
Posted on 11/14/23 at 9:40 am to SloaneRanger
quote:On the other side of that, real, median household net worth is up 37%.
These figures, whether they can be believed or not, are just noise. In the real world the damage has been done. Our currency has been debased beyond anything I have seen in my lifetime. Food inflation has been absolutely ridiculous. If you have time and have the data, look at what you are now spending on things and compare to what you were spending on the same things 2 or 3 years ago. It's shocking.
Posted on 11/14/23 at 10:16 am to slackster
https://x.com/gurgavin/status/1724456436711702630?s=20
quote:
GURGAVIN
@gurgavin
·
18m
I SEE A LOT OF PEOPLE MENTION TODAYS CPI REPORT SHOWED HEATH INSURANCE COSTS ARE DOWN 34% Y/Y AND HOW THATS NOT TRUE
THE REALITY IS THAT IT’S NOT DOWN 34% BUT THE WAY ITS CALCULATED WAS CHANGED
BLS THE AGENGY THAT CALCULATES CPI LITERALLY TOLD US LAST MONTH THEY ARE CHANGING IT
Posted on 11/14/23 at 10:18 am to boomtown143
So what would the number be if they used the old methodology?
Posted on 11/14/23 at 10:37 am to wiltznucs
Yeah my last company had a great earnings report after they laid off almost every experienced person that wasn’t directly driving revenue. US staff is kept to a bare minimum to function. When quality drops and customers drop their services… we will see then.
Posted on 11/14/23 at 11:26 am to slackster
Classic bull inversion trade
Posted on 11/14/23 at 11:28 am to SloaneRanger
quote:
Our currency has been debased beyond anything I have seen in my lifetime
Posted on 11/14/23 at 11:55 am to TheWalrus
quote:We all loved it when it happened to Twitter.
Yeah my last company had a great earnings report after they laid off almost every experienced person that wasn’t directly driving revenue. US staff is kept to a bare minimum to function. When quality drops and customers drop their services… we will see then.
Posted on 11/14/23 at 12:10 pm to wutangfinancial
What world are you living in dude? Do you buy gas? Groceries? Pick up the check in restaurants? Buy insurance? How is taking out a home loan compared to a couple of years ago? A lot of people out there ain’t laughing.
Posted on 11/14/23 at 12:15 pm to SloaneRanger
I paid 2.55 for gas yesterday.
Posted on 11/14/23 at 12:49 pm to SloaneRanger
quote:Are you saying underwriting is tougher now?
How is taking out a home loan compared to a couple of years ago?
Posted on 11/14/23 at 12:51 pm to Big Scrub TX
I’m saying interest rates on a home loan have doubled.
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