Funny stuff.

Jim Cramer, not a gold bug, thinks from a technical perspective gold is going to shine. I read another technical analysis about the 200 week ma, and this guy thinks we're going to $850.

Harry Dent, who I somewhat follow, has put together a compelling argument that the DJIA will hit 19K, and then drop as low as 7K. Other "credible" talking heads are talking Dow 18K and above. Some wildly above.

Just a couple of items that I read this evening.

Here's an example of how I pick stocks. I walked outside and noticed that during storm season we hadn't really had any devastating storms. We have a regional property/casualty insurer in our area. Q2 around here is usually the worst. They have an idiotic exposure in Louisiana and Texas. Some Texas storms, but not bad. Nothing to speak of where y'all are from. They report Q2 8/4. I did other research as well. Talked to some people that worked there. Etc, etc.

So I bought August in the money calls at $30 strike. About a month ago. The risk is tornados. There is no risk guessing a p/c insurer's eps. None. It is hugely predictable. They're trading today at about $36.00. Not much of an options market, but I think I'm going to exercise if I can't get them sold. The ask today is $7 on the calls. I bought 1,100 at a buck something.

My point? I buy only what I understand. I've learned it's o.k. to believe my eyes. I call CFO's if they'll talk to me. Usually early, early a.m. I call IR guys. I listen, but use the trust but verify method, and this applies to all of the so called experts. I try to learn form my losses. Because of all f this, my losses are acceptable, and normally small. I'm not impatient, and I try to exclude all emotion (except laffy) from any financial decision. This includes any financial decision that involves women as well. I won't buy any significant investment presently that has already run up. I'll lose upside, but I truly understand I have no idea when it turns downside. I didn't sell at the top pre 2008 crisis, but I made money. I didn't buy at the bottom after 2008, but I've already taken my profits a long time ago on this most recent run up. For this reason, I'm not afraid to buy silver now, even if it goes down more. Nor oil. Because when I bought financials, almost immediately after the 08 crisis, there weren't many "experts" telling the rest of us to buy then, and there aren't many "experts" telling people to make sure they take at least their principal out of this current bull run.

Ain't no one looking after you, but you. They don't know, as I don't know. And if they did know, they wouldn't tell you.

Speculation here, but if you think the so called experts haven't already taken profit on this run up, then I would disagree.

I'm not bragging. I'm just saying I notice a lot, and I mean a lot of people overthinking investment decision. Too smart by half.

I'm simple, and not very smart. This is just what I believe and try to practice.