FED tomorrow

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I'm nearly out of dollar shorts and need to reload.

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You’re probably going to have trouble finding shorts for $1, because even Dollar Tree increased their prices to $1.25. You still could have luck though at Goodwill or another thrift store.

.5% increase. Until unemployment goes up the Fed will keep raising.

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We shall see ;)

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That’s not some market genius prediction (I am far from anything genius when it comes to finances or anything else), it is just what the Fed is indicating. I hope I am wrong. I just have not heard or seen anything from the Fed to convince me otherwise. Wages rose 1% in December. They have been much more concerned about wage inflation than CPI lately. I just think everyone expecting .25% and even a pivot by year end is overly optimistic. Don’t fight the fed when it is pouring free money in or when it is tightening. They way undershot on the way up with inflation (basically the last people in the financial world that thought inflation was transitory) and history indicates they will overshoot on the way down.

Also, I am not negative overall. if the Fed does ease up I believe we will be up at least 25% this year(S&P) even with a recession. We either retest October lows soon or straight line to 4300.

Lemme say this though. I want to get short the USD at higher prices.

I would hate to be seriously short going into this meeting for 2 reasons:

1. Its already pretty low (USD) under the circumstances

2. They could surprise with a 50 and cause pandemonium which would be extraordinarily strong for the dollar on interest rate differentials and safety flows.

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if the Fed does ease up I believe we will be up at least 25% this year(S&P) even with a recession. We either retest October lows soon or straight line to 4300.

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IF they eased now, it would be incredibly bearish for them to accept high inflation and further hurt consumer spending, but in the short-term, dumb money would try to rally the S&P.

This earnings season is already lackluster with companies guiding estimates down being the common theme. Even if the Fed eased, the S&P valuation is stretched based on current forward earnings and the estimates are just going to get worse no matter what the Fed does today. The damage is done.

.50 raise would be a huge surprise so I'm expecting .25 with Powell trying to hawk down the market. "Higher for longer" "no cuts in 2023"

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I am not negative overall.

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I am

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"Higher for longer" "no cuts in 2023"

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There is a VERY easy way to pause rate hikes AND bring down stock markets. I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere, by anyone, so maybe I'm missing something but....

Average.
Inflation.
Targeting.

If Powell was to come out and say that they would allow a period of below 2% inflation to get back to a 2% average after years of high inflation, then markets would drop to levels we all deem as appropriate and they could go ahead and pause.

I dont know why thats not the plan and/or why they haven't mentioned it.

Oh dam. ISM and JOLTS numbers very hawkish for fed.

I would love a 50 for the same reason. Better entry points. I'm hoping he can talk enough shite after a .25 to get us there.

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IF they eased now, it would be incredibly bearish for them to accept high inflation and further hurt consumer spending, but in the short-term, dumb money would try to rally the S&P.

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I was referring to Easing up from .5 to .25, not cutting. It has not been bearish at all. The market is going up a lot since the fed started talking. If it breaks through this 4100 (sustained) it is going to 4300.

I am surprised they did not keep the number at .5 with commodities rising and unemployment still so low. The dollar has come in and inflation is coming down, but their hands are now forced to stay at .25 for the next cut.