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Started By
Message
Did Bond Yields crash today?
Posted on 12/11/23 at 4:54 pm
Posted on 12/11/23 at 4:54 pm
20y zero Treasuries was 4.73% this am and just looked 4.51%
First time really watching rates seems very volatile
First time really watching rates seems very volatile
5
Posted on 12/11/23 at 5:45 pm to thelawnwranglers
Welcome to 2023. 
Posted on 12/11/23 at 6:27 pm to thelawnwranglers
So what does this affect? Crash or volatility?
Posted on 12/11/23 at 7:50 pm to XenScott
quote:
So what does this affect? Crash or volatility?
I bought some in retirement so my account has paper gain lol
Posted on 12/11/23 at 7:52 pm to thelawnwranglers
quote:no? The 10 year moved like 4bps.
Did Bond Yields crash today?
Posted on 12/11/23 at 8:39 pm to thelawnwranglers
If yields fall it’s not crashing it’s because of Treasurys rallying or increasing in price which is a flight to safety.
Posted on 12/11/23 at 8:41 pm to TX_Tiger23
quote:
yields fall it’s not crashing it’s because of Treasurys rallying or increasing in price which is a flight to safety.
Will treasury yield potentially stay higher due to all the issuance we will need to do going forward to pay bills
Posted on 12/11/23 at 10:25 pm to XenScott
quote:
So what does this affect? Crash or volatility?
Duration
Posted on 12/12/23 at 6:54 am to thelawnwranglers
quote:
20y zero Treasuries was 4.73% this am and just looked 4.51% First time really watching rates seems very volatile
That probably has to do with the inventory available. To be clear, yields on the 20y hardly budged.
This post was edited on 12/12/23 at 6:55 am
Posted on 12/12/23 at 10:13 am to slackster
quote:
That probably has to do with the inventory available
It doesn't have anything to do with supply. The curve has shifted down since September's seasonal upward shift. Pin it today and toggle the date back. Forward curves are falling and swap spreads are turning negative. It's the bond market signaling a change in growth and inflation expectations.
Treasury Yield Curve
Posted on 12/12/23 at 12:47 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
That probably has to do with the inventory available
It doesn't have anything to do with supply. The curve has shifted down since September's seasonal upward shift. Pin it today and toggle the date back. Forward curves are falling and swap spreads are turning negative
Might have been timing on when I looked what was available. Aka after 5pm?
Posted on 12/12/23 at 5:30 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
It doesn't have anything to do with supply. The curve has shifted down since September's seasonal upward shift. Pin it today and toggle the date back. Forward curves are falling and swap spreads are turning negative. It's the bond market signaling a change in growth and inflation expectations
I realize the trend, but a 20bps move on 20y treasuries in one day is probably related to what Fidelity or the platform had available. It’s not because rates moved 20bps yesterday. Thats my point.
Posted on 12/12/23 at 7:34 pm to slackster
Aww got it I see what you’re saying
Posted on 12/12/23 at 8:23 pm to slackster
quote:
realize the trend, but a 20bps move on 20y treasuries in one day is probably related to what Fidelity or the platform had available. It’s not because rates moved 20bps yesterday. Thats my point.
I think I f..ked up. Was looking at Charles Schwab off hour so was not an accurate quote.
Posted on 12/12/23 at 8:51 pm to wutangfinancial
Posted on 1/27/24 at 1:25 pm to thelawnwranglers
That’s definitely a possibility and one of the reasons I believe rates have stayed higher for a little bit longer.
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