Buy/Rent analysis - I want to pick the Money Board's collective wisdom

Rent is the only guaranteed scenario you've described. I'd rent if you will move back within such a short timeframe.

That said, what's the housing market like in your new location?

I can't think of a single honest scenario that would make me want to buy here.

You will likely be trying to sell a home where you don't live after transferring back unless it is priced to sell quickly which puts ant potential profit out the window and may be throwing closing cost in as seller as well.

Not worth the aggravation or risk. JMHO

I appreciate the straightforward responses. My first instinct is to rent - I convinced myself buying was viable - if the market was a little hotter, maybe that would be true. I think a cool flat market, more or less a clear path home (nothing is certain in life) - looks more risky.

My wargaming is this - the better I do on the sale, the less I care to buy away. Even if I have to tap my equity for a little cash flow during the rental period, I will be poised, ready to strike, buy back home and move straight from the rental to Forever House - the only question will be structuring the lease to break at the end. If I do poorly on the sale here, then I will have less cushion to absorb cash flow issues at the new location, then buying becomes more attractive.

I'm not certain of a month and day, obviously, for the transfer back and I will have to make a decision and transfer pretty quickly. But, the exposure there is for a breach - limited, clean, fairly painless. I think if I'm honest with the landlord at the end of 12 months - I'd prefer to go monthly or quarterly after that with 30 days notice.

I'm open to buying arguments (obviously I've made some myself), but it's looking like rental is the $mart money move here.

1) Do you have any prior experience buying/selling houses?

2) Buying, in most cases, will be more expensive over the first 3-5 years. That $4-6k you anticipate saving will be gone if the ac goes out or you need to replace the roof...or any of the 1,000 other things that can eat into your savings with home ownership.

3) Renting is the obvious answer if it's only 24 months. Simply too short of a window in the market to build any equity, and more pragmatically, it's just a whole hell of alot easier to rent for a couple years if you know you're not going to be there long term. Once you're ready to move back, pack up, turn in the keys and you're done. Go find a nice house to rent in the area where you would buy, and enjoy it. And when something breaks, its someone else's problem.

Even if you can buy in the new location and rent the property after you transfer back in 2 years you would be a long distance landlord. No thanks. I can't think of any reason that would make buying worth it.

quote:

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Even renting at $1700 over an $1100 mortgage for 24 months is a delta of $14,400

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Even with a 5-1 ARM, your note would likely be over $1100/mo. Are you looking at a 30yr amortization? If so, you won't be building any equity in 18-24 months. I would see what a 15 or 20 year amortization payment would be and compare those deltas. This will remove the downside risk of falling underwater on the future sale (chief concern).

I'm in a similar situation with a slightly longer timeframe (5 years), and decided to buy. I'm going with a 7-1 arm, but paying on a 20 year amortization due to healthy cash flow situation. We're trying to get prepared for, as you said, "forever home".

I would think your payment would be closer to 1350-1400 on a shorter amort. schedule.