re: Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA)- Vadadustat FDA Approved AT LAST!!

While I hoped for a pop up to 4 or so to go ahead and just sell and make some quick profit, I am acually a little more excited for a long hold. By summer of 2025 you should see revenues and profits up, and the ability to secure funding should allow a nice smooth roll out of this new medication. If they capture the market share they should we may have a pretty good run when earnings come out Q2 or Q3 2025.

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The rationale for not immediately rushing to physicians; they want to best ensure a successful launch.

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This seems wise, and we are in a good buy zone.

I'm more comfortable buying AKBA at 2.25 than I am buying the stock that shall not be named at $5.

I bet nobody predicted this

this has been comical so far, back under $2. probably just gonna box these shares up and put them in my attic with the rest of my bags and check back in sometime in 2025.

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I bet nobody predicted this

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I didn't, but I'm not shocked. Seen it before.

Note to self: A big run up indicates a sell off.
Since launch won't be until 2025, big money knows it has plenty of time to load up.

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Ouch. Down 12% today.

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Spend some money for once.

Related to the launch (from 3/28 call):

“ Now let's get a bit more granular about what we plan to do over the coming year. After careful analysis, we have decided to make Vase available to the market in January 2025 to coincide with its expected TDAPA desgination.
We plan to file for TDAPA sometime in mid-Q2 and we will officially launch Vafseo in January. As a reminder, TDAPA designation is assigned six months post application following acceptance, which is only completed once per quarter.
We expect our TDAPA application to be accepted in July, our Vafseo's specific Hexvix code to be signed in October and TDAPA designation in January.

At launch, we expect the product will be reimbursed and widely available and accessible to patients with rapid adoption expected as providers can begin to realize the TDAPA economics. This will change from our previous strategy to file for TDAPA immediately upon approval. Our rationale was predicated on several factors.

First, dialysis organizations need at least six months to establish treatment protocols with new agents. During this time, Akebia and its partner would be contracting with dialysis organizations and supporting the US with Medicare engagement to solidify reimbursement pathways beyond TDAPA. Another benefit of the January 2025 launch is the potential to drive preferential selection of the newest HIF activator.

Further, we believe it is an advantage to leverage ongoing work at dialysis organizations as they prepare for phosphate binders to transition from Medicare Part D to the bottled environment. Also currently anticipated for January 2025. As you noted, TAPA was designated design to incentivize the use of innovative products. We understand these incentives. And over the next nine months will contract with Vafseo that will encourage patient access, utilization and growth.
During this time we will able to framework and we believe that we can be more successful upon launch to drive demand and ultimately better capitalize on the market opportunity.

Lastly, we have a full slate of conversation and tradeshows where we plan to introduce Vase to healthcare professionals that culminate with the American Society of Nephrology Kidney Week Annual Meeting planned to be held October 24 through 27 in San Diego ahead of Vascos official mark to market entry.

In summary, throughout 2024, our entire team will be working with the goal to position Vafseo as the next standard of care, with prescribers advocating them on the advantages of Vase and of once daily oral dosing. We will also be building broad accessibility to our drug across the payer universe representing various [indiscernible]. While we are not disclosing the Vase list price today, we are broadly thinking in terms of aligning our product price with the significant value we believe is offered by our brand. We expect to provide regular updates on our contracting progress and we'll share list price by mid-year.”

CARA, AUPH, AKBA,

Down 25%, Down 85%, Down 15%

Ouch, Ouch, Ouch.

"I like $2-3 entry points"

Well buy some already!

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Being shorted due to 2025 launch. New target is $6.00 by wainwright

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Buy the Rumor and Sell the News

frick it...im loading up with a limit order at $1.50 if we get there.