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Where LSU stands compared to at-large tourney teams since 2008
Posted on 3/9/16 at 1:03 pm
Posted on 3/9/16 at 1:03 pm
I looked this up from some info I had form 2008-2015.
24 major conference, at-large teams received bids with 13-14 losses. No one had more than 14. That's 3/year on average.
Of those teams, RPIs ranged from 64-30. 4 teams had an RPI over 60 (2011 Marquette, 2010 Minnesota, 2009 Arizona, 2015 Indiana). Interestingly, Marquette and Arizona both made it to the sweet 16. Unfortunately, LSU has a 92 as of today.
Again, of those 24 teams, the wins ranged from 18-22. Two teams were 18-13 (LSU's current record) while seven teams were 19-13/14. Of those nine teams with 18 or 19 wins, only 2 (2009 Arizona and 2008 Oregon) had RPIs over 50 (Arizona 62, Oregon 58).
I'm not doing extensive research, but that 2009 Arizona team went 1-4 to end the season and 0-1 in conference tournament. They also had 3 wins of ranked teams at time they met, including No. 4 Gonzaga and No. 6 UCLA. LSU beat No. 9 Kentucky and No. 15 A&M, comparatively.
So...for whatever those stats are worth, it's possible but as an indicator our RPI kills us, comparatively.
TLDR: Looking at like teams from 2008-2015, our w/l record fits profile of 3 tourney teams a year but our RPI is way to high.
24 major conference, at-large teams received bids with 13-14 losses. No one had more than 14. That's 3/year on average.
Of those teams, RPIs ranged from 64-30. 4 teams had an RPI over 60 (2011 Marquette, 2010 Minnesota, 2009 Arizona, 2015 Indiana). Interestingly, Marquette and Arizona both made it to the sweet 16. Unfortunately, LSU has a 92 as of today.
Again, of those 24 teams, the wins ranged from 18-22. Two teams were 18-13 (LSU's current record) while seven teams were 19-13/14. Of those nine teams with 18 or 19 wins, only 2 (2009 Arizona and 2008 Oregon) had RPIs over 50 (Arizona 62, Oregon 58).
I'm not doing extensive research, but that 2009 Arizona team went 1-4 to end the season and 0-1 in conference tournament. They also had 3 wins of ranked teams at time they met, including No. 4 Gonzaga and No. 6 UCLA. LSU beat No. 9 Kentucky and No. 15 A&M, comparatively.
So...for whatever those stats are worth, it's possible but as an indicator our RPI kills us, comparatively.
TLDR: Looking at like teams from 2008-2015, our w/l record fits profile of 3 tourney teams a year but our RPI is way to high.
This post was edited on 3/9/16 at 1:43 pm
6
Posted on 3/9/16 at 1:21 pm to ChunkyLover54
I'm sure all those teams with 13-14 losses played very tough schedules, and had a much higher RPI, as you said.
This post was edited on 3/9/16 at 1:23 pm
Posted on 3/9/16 at 1:29 pm to BayouBengals03
Had we played someone like Baylor, Notre Dame and a good mid major like a Wichita State, and loss all 3, instead of losing to CoC, Wake, and Houston, we'd be in the tourney, just like Vandy.
Vandy loss to Kansas, Dayton, Texas, Purdue, and Baylor, and no one cares that they did as for as the tourney is concerned. IF they win just one of those games, they are probably a 7 seed instead of a 9. They win 2, they are a 4 or 5 seed.
There is absolutely nothing positive for anyone when we play Oral Roberts, Kennesaw State, and American. No one goes to the game. They suck so bad we dont' get better. They almost hurt us even though we win rpi wise. And you gave money to some out of state school. If you wanted to kick someones arse, then kick Nichols or McNeese or Southeasterns arse and share the wealth in state.
Vandy loss to Kansas, Dayton, Texas, Purdue, and Baylor, and no one cares that they did as for as the tourney is concerned. IF they win just one of those games, they are probably a 7 seed instead of a 9. They win 2, they are a 4 or 5 seed.
There is absolutely nothing positive for anyone when we play Oral Roberts, Kennesaw State, and American. No one goes to the game. They suck so bad we dont' get better. They almost hurt us even though we win rpi wise. And you gave money to some out of state school. If you wanted to kick someones arse, then kick Nichols or McNeese or Southeasterns arse and share the wealth in state.
This post was edited on 3/9/16 at 1:32 pm
Posted on 3/9/16 at 1:30 pm to ChunkyLover54
quote:
So...for whatever those stats are worth, it's possible but as an indicator our RPI kills us, comparatively
There is a reason LSU's RPI is so low. They played a bad non-conf. schedule (SOS 200). That in and of itself doesn't always kill you. However, when you combine a bad schedule with several losses to those weak teams, you find yourself in a BIG hole.
LSU's schedule left them very little room for error in Nov/Dec. The blew through that margin of error by losing 5 games to weak teams (Houston is the only one of that group with an RPI better than 100)
You get credit for scheduling tough OOC games (obviously you get even more if you win a few of those). That's why Bama and Florida have managed to stay around the bubble even though they struggled in SEC play. It's why LSU was a #4 seed in 2006 even though some other teams had better records.
If you are going to put together a shitty schedule, you better win damn near all of the games. Like South Carolina did. Otherwise, you run the risk of torpedoing your tournament chances before you even get to the much tougher conf. play.
Posted on 3/9/16 at 1:45 pm to ChunkyLover54
Did any of those lose at College of Charleston?
Posted on 3/9/16 at 1:51 pm to ChunkyLover54
are we talking about an at large bid to the real tournament? if so 
Posted on 3/9/16 at 2:13 pm to ChunkyLover54
Michigan State was 19-14 in 2010-2011 heading into the NCAA tournament with a 9-9 conference record and received an at large bid #10 seed. Their RPI was 54. They lost in the first round. Last year, they were 23-11 heading into the NCAA tournament and finished 12-6 in conference and received an at large bid #7 seed. Their RPI was 15. They went to the final four. Year in and year out they play one of the hardest schedules. It's not rocket science....YOU have to schedule quality teams before conference play because the SEC alone will not be enough to boost your RPI. RPI matters to the committee, always has and until they drastically change that we will always be behind the eight ball with this coaching staff and the way they schedule.
Posted on 3/9/16 at 2:44 pm to LaBR4
No
Posted on 3/9/16 at 3:31 pm to LSU_Richoux
quote:
Michigan State was 19-14 in 2010-2011 heading into the NCAA tournament with a 9-9 conference record and received an at large bid #10 seed. Their RPI was 54. They lost in the first round. Last year, they were 23-11 heading into the NCAA tournament and finished 12-6 in conference and received an at large bid #7 seed. Their RPI was 15. They went to the final four. Year in and year out they play one of the hardest schedules. It's not rocket science....YOU have to schedule quality teams before conference play because the SEC alone will not be enough to boost your RPI. RPI matters to the committee, always has and until they drastically change that we will always be behind the eight ball with this coaching staff and the way they schedule.
Absolutely. Playing a tough non-conf. schedule can also get a team "battle-tested" as well. The toughest non-conf. schedule an LSU team has played in the last 10+ years was in 2006. That year out of 13 non-conf opponents, they played:
End of reg season RPI in ()
@ West Virginia (37)
Houston (54)
Northern Iowa (neutral)(25)
Cincinnati (neutral)(40)
@ Ohio State(5)
@ UConn (3)
LSU finished 2-4 vs. that group. 7-5 overall in non-conf play They were a very inexperienced team with little depth. LSU played virtually 7 guys that year. 2 True Fr; 2 RS Fresh; 1 Soph, 1 Jr.; 1 Sr.
Despite having a pretty avg. non-conf record, LSU wound up cruising through the SEC and getting a #4 seed in the tournament. We all know what happened after that.
The same "young team" excuse was present for that group as it was this season. In fact, probably worse as 4 of the top 7 players had never played a college game going into that season. They had to grow up quick and take their lumps early. But they were better for it in the end.
Posted on 3/9/16 at 3:50 pm to LSU_Richoux
quote:
RPI matters to the committee, always has
92 RPI is accurate.
200 OOC SOS is bizarre. so weak
Posted on 3/9/16 at 3:54 pm to ChunkyLover54
Basically if we lose to mich. St. And Miami instead of CoC and wake we're in
In JJ's defense....who would have thought wake and NC state were dumpster fires? Marquette sucks too. Never know when you schedule
Who would have thought Miami would have a good team? That's an RPI boost to teams who thought they scheduled a ACC bottom feeder
In JJ's defense....who would have thought wake and NC state were dumpster fires? Marquette sucks too. Never know when you schedule
Who would have thought Miami would have a good team? That's an RPI boost to teams who thought they scheduled a ACC bottom feeder
Posted on 3/9/16 at 4:01 pm to pellietigersaint
quote:
Who would have thought Miami would have a good team? That's an RPI boost to teams who thought they scheduled a ACC bottom feeder
Miami was picked 5th in the ACC preseason rankings. Very experienced team, people thought they'd be good. 6 of their top 7 players are upperclassmen (5 seniors). VERY deep team too.
NC State should have been better. Danny Manning being Wake's coach is probably their problem.
And I have no idea how Marquette isn't better, especially in an overrated Big East that lacks a ton of athleticism, compared to the other major conferences. Ellenson is a good player. It's odd.
Still, all of the teams we played OOC weren't ever going to be good to great teams. At best, they were bubble teams, looking from the start of the season. With a guy like Simmons and the team we expected to have, you would think we'd have scheduled better in the OOC.
ETA: Looking back, that little Brooklyn tournament completely bombed on their team selections. All 4 won't make the NCAA Tournament, plus ASU and NC State won't even make the NIT.
This post was edited on 3/9/16 at 4:07 pm
Posted on 3/9/16 at 4:16 pm to Alt26
quote:
There is a reason LSU's RPI is so low. They played a bad non-conf. schedule (SOS 200).
Agreed but some of that is luck of the draw. In many other years, NCstate and Marquette could have been bound for the Dance and not considered bad losses. Same for Wake Forest back in the day. Bottom line is the Tigers should have beaten those three teams as well as CoC and Houston. They were favored in all of those games. Had they taken care of business they'd be looking at a 7 or 8 seed lock right now and need zero wins in the SECT. Even with all those bad losses, just take care of 'Bama at home and either UT, Arky or USCe on the road and they'd be a lock. By far, CJJ's worst year of coaching.
Posted on 3/9/16 at 4:16 pm to pellietigersaint
who would have thought wake and NC state were dumpster fires? Marquette sucks too. Never know when you schedule.
___________________________________________________
If my memory serves me correctly, Marquette and NC State were tournament games, so difficult to fault those being scheduled. Wake hasn't been strong in years. I don't even fault the College of Charleston game as they at least have a tad bit of basketball history. Its the Kennesaw State, Gardner Webb, Oral Roberts and American games that really hurt [as others pointed out, at least McNeese is in state].
Fire-tested teams traditionally play better as the season proceeds on. We may have had to go on the road for two of four to replace the weak home games I list above, but win 3 out of 4 in games that replace those and we likely would have won a couple more in conference and been in. Bet we could have continued the prior home and home with Texas Tech, for example.
Live and learn . . .
___________________________________________________
If my memory serves me correctly, Marquette and NC State were tournament games, so difficult to fault those being scheduled. Wake hasn't been strong in years. I don't even fault the College of Charleston game as they at least have a tad bit of basketball history. Its the Kennesaw State, Gardner Webb, Oral Roberts and American games that really hurt [as others pointed out, at least McNeese is in state].
Fire-tested teams traditionally play better as the season proceeds on. We may have had to go on the road for two of four to replace the weak home games I list above, but win 3 out of 4 in games that replace those and we likely would have won a couple more in conference and been in. Bet we could have continued the prior home and home with Texas Tech, for example.
Live and learn . . .
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