What are the odds MBB makes the Tournament? What needs to happen?

What sucks is, we had those close losses early on that should not have happened………..or we would be on the bubble right now most likely.

We can't lose another regular season game. From that point we will know what happens around us and what else is needed. But it'll probably take a few in the SEC tourney as well to just have a chance.

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But, do we need to win out and make it far in the SEC tournament?

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IF that’s gets us to something like 22-13, maybe.

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or is close to impossible...

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Probably, but 10-8 in SEC & a NIT bid is pretty good improvement from losing to Nicholls earlier this year. Very encouraged by the job tMackdaddy has done this season

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CONF OVERALL HOME ROAD NEUTRAL PF PA STRK
Alabama 11-2 19-7 13-1 4-3 2-3 2365 2013 W3
Tennessee 10-3 20-6 12-1 6-3 2-2 2081 1746 W3
South Carolina 9-4 21-5 13-2 5-3 3-0 1866 1700 L-2
Auburn 9-4 20-6 13-1 3-4 4-1 2136 1742 L-1
Florida 8-5 18-8 11-1 3-5 4-2 2212 2019 L-1
Kentucky 8-5 18-8 11-4 5-3 2-1 2278 2009 L-1
Mississippi State 7-6 18-8 11-2 1-6 6-0 1936 1755 W4
Ole Miss 6-7 19-7 14-1 3-6 2-0 1970 1877 L-1
Texas A&M 6-7 15-11 9-4 4-5 2-2 1926 1814 L-3
LSU 6-7 14-12 10-4 2-6 2-2 2007 1932 W2
Georgia 5-8 15-11 11-4 4-4 0-3 1979 1925 W1
Arkansas 4-9 13-13 9-5 2-5 2-3 1956 2024 W1
Vanderbilt 2-11 7-19 7-9 0-7 0-3 1722 1933 L-2
Missouri 0-13 8-18 6-9 2-7 0-2 1871 1934 L-13

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USCe remaining schedule: @ Ole Miss, @ aTm, UF, Tenn and @ MSU (predict they lose 4 and finish 9-8)

UF remaining schedule: Vandy, Mizzou, @ USCe, Bama, @ Vanry (predict they lose 1 and finish 12-6)

Kentucky remaining schedule: Bama, @ MSU, Arky, Vandy, @ Tenn (predict they lose 2 and finish 11-7)

so assuming we win out and finish 11-7 we should be 5th or 6th in the SEC. Do we think they will let 6 SEC teams in this year? Last year 6 SEC teams got in (Kentucky, Arky, LSU, Aubrun, Tenn and Bama)

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NET ranking and Ws/Ls per Quad is more important than static 20 Ws or SEC regular season standings.

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LSU has 4 quad 1 wins this year, second most in the SEC

I'll point this out from last year.

Vandy
20-14 record 11-7 sec record
81 Net Ranking 5-11 Q1 5-0 Q2 5-2 Q3 5-1 Q4
won 2 games in SECT, Q1 victory over Kentucky
THey were the 3rd team left out the tourney.

Florida
16-16 record 9-9 in SEC
62 Net Ranking 2-13 Q1 1-2 Q2 9-1 Q3 4-0
O'fer in the SECT

Both in the NIT.

We are currently 85 NET Ranking
We really don't have much room to improve, even if we win out and finish 11-7.
What would be helpful is if KState can get back to a Q2 loss, as they are currently a Q3 loss as they are 77th in the NET and need to be 75th or better to be a Q2 loss.


We are currently 4-7 Q1 2-3 Q2 1-1 Q3 and 7-1 Q4

MSU will be a Q2 win
UGA will be a Q3 win
Vandy will be a Q3 win (maybe)
Ar-Kansas will be a Q2 win
Mizzou will be a Q3 win


I'm not sure even if we win out and lose in the SECT title game if we'd still get in. That would put us at 6-8 Q1 and 5-4 Q2 4-0 Q3 7-1 Q4

Very low...but not 0%


1. LSU has to win out. They have virtually no margin for error.

2. Several of those wins have to be decisive. A great start would be beating MSU decisively this weekend and playing great offense in the process. That all factors into the analytical ratings, which factors into the NET ratings. LSU's current NET is 85. That's not getting them into the NCAAT or anywhere close.

3. Don't expect the SEC Tournament to have any bearing. It should. And EVERY year people think it does. But the committee has consistently shown they put little emphasis on it. Maybe even LESS than the regular season.

Vanderbilt was in a similar situation to LSU last season. They did nothing of note in non-conf. play and started SEC play 3-6. They then got red hot in the final 1.5 months of the season. They finished the regular season by going 8-1 in their final 9 games. That included 3 road wins (one at No. 23 Kentucky) and a win over No. 6 Tennessee. Their only loss was to a bad LSU team.

With an 18-13 (11-7) record they entered the SECT as the 6th seed. They won two games, including another win over Kentucky to have a final overall record of 20-14. Didn't matter. They were left out. It didn't matter that they won two games in the SECT and reached the Semi-finals. It didn't matter that they finished AHEAD of Auburn, Mississippi St. AND Arkansas (all of whom made the NCAAT) in the SEC regular season standings (conference standings literally mean nothing). Their NET ranking was 81st and they had only a few "good" wins.

In short, LSU has to win out and they have to kick arse in the process. Then they have to hope similarly situated teams collapse around them. To give a little context, Jerry Palm (CBS) currently has these four as is "last 4 in":

Utah (47)
Ole Miss (68)
Colorado (41)
Gonzaga (22)

These are his first four out:

Butler (61)
A&M (49)
Cincinnati (45)
Oregon (64)

It seems pretty clear LSU is going to have to get its NET into the 60's to be in the conversation. In that respect the "easy" upcoming schedule is a double-edged sword. While it makes "running the table" more likely it also means there are few opportunities for impactful wins. In fact, you could argue Saturday's game vs. Miss. St is the last opportunity. At this point in the season with so many games played it is hard to make a huge jump in the NET rankings in a short amount of time. For instance, LSU went from 88 to 85 with last night's win. With 5 games left they have to really start kicking arse to jump 15+ spots in the NET.

20 regular season wins and you’re in

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I don’t see it happening unless they win the tournament.

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Wouldn’t write this off as a possibility whether we win out or not.

Lots of parity in the league. Crazier things have happened.

Either way excited to see how the rest of the season shakes out & next year 100% should be pushing for a bid.