re: The 8/9 seed myth (or not)

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It's an easier draw, the further away from the best team you are. Here's the all-time record by seed:

8: 87-119
9: 69-120
10: 77-120
11: 67-123

In the past ten years, only three 8-seeds have made the Sweet 16. Two of them then made the national title game. Only three 9-seeds have made the Sweet 16, one made the Final Four.

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Honestly which draw is tougher:

NC St and Nova
Michigan St and UVA


Cause if I didn't look at seeds and just knew I had these two this weekend, I would say the second couple was tougher.


Let's look at KenPom:

NC ST - 38
Nova - 5

Michigan St - 17
Virginia - 4


RPI:

NC ST - 40
Nova - 4

Michigan St - 22
Virginia - 7


Either way we got an easier draw than the 10 seed in our bracket.

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and only 3 11 seeds have (never making the NC game

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And LSU is one of those three.

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in order for an 8/9 team to advance to the Sweet 16, it must be a Final Four caliber squad. Ask yourself, is LSU that level of quality?

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I don't know what makes an 8 seed "final four caliber", but being 6-1 against tourney teams (many on the road) with the 1 loss being by 2 to one of the greatest teams of all time might be it.

Obviously, LSU has major flaws but any 8 seed does.

UCONN was a 7 and Kentucky an 8. In one year I think UCLA and UNC were both 8 seeds and made the final 4.

Bottom line is this: Villanova hasn't lost since mid-January, they're playing in their home state, and Mickey is seriously hurting. You take LSU in that spot?

This particular season may turn out to be one of those good years for the 8/9 seeds, especially the winner of the LSU/NCSU game. Either of those teams are capable of upsetting 'Nova IMO. LSU had a legit shot at the buzzer to beat UK and defeated Ark and WVU and the Wolfpack defeated Duke and UNC.

You don't need to be a code breaker to understand the numbers. Being an 8/9 is basically a black hole.

But as far as it goes, I think LSU got a pretty decent draw. Find a way to survive NC State and take your best crack at the most beatable of the four No. 1's. I'll take that scenario after losing to !*&%$# Auburn for the second time in three chances last week.

at the end of the day it's all about getting in and beating the team(s) you're up against. Winning it all is the goal so you're going to have beat the No 1 anyway.

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It turns out that 8 seeds have won 75 games since 1985

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Start the data 2 years later and its 12 less wins.

That first chart is imaginary -- it takes a team of a set quality (quality of 85, whatever the f that means) and randomly seeds it 1-16. But teams aren't randomly seeded, or anything close to it. It's like a physics problem that starts "assume no friction." Well, there is friction.