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Stats that most correlate to winning (statistical analysis)
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:11 pm
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:11 pm
I was doing a little statistical work and wanted to find out how success in various statistical categories relates to winning in Power 5 conferences. Over the last three years this is what I found using the top 10 Power 5 finishers in each of the following categories:
2014 (combined winning percentage of Power 5 teams in top 10 in NCAA in each of these categories)
Third down conversions - 85.0 winning percentage
Passing Efficiency - 83.3
Points - 83.3
TO Margin - 78.3
Time of Possession - 73.6
Rushing Offense - 72.1
Points allowed - 72.0
Defensive Passing Efficiency - 68.8
Total Offense - 68.1
Total Defense - 65.0
Fewest Penalties - 63.7
Most Penalties - 54.2
Passing Yardage - 49.6
2013
Passing Efficiency - 84.9
Points - 82.9
Points allowed - 82.3
TO Margin - 82.3
Third down conversions - 78.8
Defensive Passing Efficiency - 77.1
Total Offense - 76.1
Rushing Offense - 76.1
Total Defense - 74.2
Fewest Penalties - 62.3
Passing Yardage- 58.8
Most Penalties - 75.0
Time of Possession - 56.7
2012
Points allowed - 80.0
TO Margin - 79.6
Total Defense - 79.6
Points - 77.7
3rd down conversions - 75.0
Defensive Passing Efficiency - 74.6
Passing Efficiency - 73.9
Rushing Offense - 72.1
Total Offense - 71.4
Passing Yardage - 67.1
Time of Possession - 65.2
Most Penalties - 63.7
Fewest Penalties - 52.2
Overall Rank (order of importance)
1. Points scored (3,2,4) - 9
2t. Turnover Margin (4,4,2) - 10
2t. Passing Efficiency (2,1,7) - 10
4t. Points allowed (7,3,1) 11
4t. Third Down Conversions (1,5,5) - 11
6. Defensive Passing Efficiency (8,6,6) - 20
7. Rushing Offense (6, 8, 8) - 22
8. Total Defense (10,9,3) - 22
9. Total Offense (8,7,9) - 24
10. Time of Possession (5,13,11) - 29
11. Passing Yardage (13,11,10) - 34
12t. Fewest Penalties (13,10,13) - 36
12t. Most Penalties (12,12,12) - 36
2014 (combined winning percentage of Power 5 teams in top 10 in NCAA in each of these categories)
Third down conversions - 85.0 winning percentage
Passing Efficiency - 83.3
Points - 83.3
TO Margin - 78.3
Time of Possession - 73.6
Rushing Offense - 72.1
Points allowed - 72.0
Defensive Passing Efficiency - 68.8
Total Offense - 68.1
Total Defense - 65.0
Fewest Penalties - 63.7
Most Penalties - 54.2
Passing Yardage - 49.6
2013
Passing Efficiency - 84.9
Points - 82.9
Points allowed - 82.3
TO Margin - 82.3
Third down conversions - 78.8
Defensive Passing Efficiency - 77.1
Total Offense - 76.1
Rushing Offense - 76.1
Total Defense - 74.2
Fewest Penalties - 62.3
Passing Yardage- 58.8
Most Penalties - 75.0
Time of Possession - 56.7
2012
Points allowed - 80.0
TO Margin - 79.6
Total Defense - 79.6
Points - 77.7
3rd down conversions - 75.0
Defensive Passing Efficiency - 74.6
Passing Efficiency - 73.9
Rushing Offense - 72.1
Total Offense - 71.4
Passing Yardage - 67.1
Time of Possession - 65.2
Most Penalties - 63.7
Fewest Penalties - 52.2
Overall Rank (order of importance)
1. Points scored (3,2,4) - 9
2t. Turnover Margin (4,4,2) - 10
2t. Passing Efficiency (2,1,7) - 10
4t. Points allowed (7,3,1) 11
4t. Third Down Conversions (1,5,5) - 11
6. Defensive Passing Efficiency (8,6,6) - 20
7. Rushing Offense (6, 8, 8) - 22
8. Total Defense (10,9,3) - 22
9. Total Offense (8,7,9) - 24
10. Time of Possession (5,13,11) - 29
11. Passing Yardage (13,11,10) - 34
12t. Fewest Penalties (13,10,13) - 36
12t. Most Penalties (12,12,12) - 36
This post was edited on 12/4/14 at 1:05 pm
10
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:12 pm to trooploop
quote:
4. Passing Efficiency (2,1,7) - 10
so under 50% completion is efficient, right?
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:14 pm to trooploop
That was a great deal of effort on your part.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:16 pm to CptBengal
quote:
so under 50% completion is efficient, right?
This says passing efficiency is pretty darn important and certainly more important than yardage. LSU was 6th in 2013 and 69th this year.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:16 pm to trooploop
quote:
Overall Rank (order of importance)
1. Points scored (3,2,4) - 9
2. Points allowed (7,3,1) 10
Not surprising.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:17 pm to trooploop
so passing yardage is 11th out of 13. you have just made many enemies on here trooploop. the posters that want baylors offense (or whoever is hot) will not believe you. all they want is lots and lots of passing yardage and quick scores.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:19 pm to NotRight37
quote:
That was a great deal of effort on your part.
Ha. I had planned to only do a few categories but then it got pretty interesting so I expanded. There were some outliers from year-to-year but most of the key categories seem to be consistent. Obviously, points and points against are huge but efficiency and taking care of the football seem to be much more important than total yards in any category, time of possession, or penalties.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:19 pm to CptBengal
quote:
so under 50% completion is efficient, right?
Sometimes it is.
4/10 for 300 yards and 4 TDs is efficient.
40/50 for 200 yards, no TDs and 4 INTs is NOT efficient.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:20 pm to WildTchoupitoulas
quote:
Sometimes it is.
4/10 for 300 yards and 4 TDs is efficient.
40/50 for 200 yards, no TDs and 4 INTs is NOT efficient.
We are like 4/20 for 110 yds, 0 tds and 1 int.
do the math.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:20 pm to trooploop
Just Remember, Kids
Safety First
Correlation =/= Causation
Safety First
Correlation =/= Causation
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:20 pm to WildTchoupitoulas
When did we ever so that? 
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:25 pm to trooploop
quote:
2. Points allowed (7,3,1) 10
3. Turnover Margin (4,4,2) - 10
4. Passing Efficiency (2,1,7) - 10
quote:
12. Fewest Penalties (13,10,13) - 36
13. Most Penalties (12,12,12) - 36
Why didn't you call these ties rather than arbitrarily ranking one higher than the other?
Also, points allowed equals 11 not 10.
This post was edited on 12/4/14 at 12:28 pm
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:31 pm to trooploop
quote:
1. Points scored (3,2,4) - 9
2. Points allowed (7,3,1) 10
That's pretty much the object of the game.
After the scoreboard the next most important stat is:
quote:
TO Margin - 78.3
...because you get more chances to increase 1.
And...
quote:
4. Passing Efficiency (2,1,7) - 10
This is an area the LSU need major work to increase this:
quote:
5. Third Down Conversions (1,5,5) - 1
Which will translate into increases in no. 1.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:36 pm to Sasquatch Smash
Corrected, thanks.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:37 pm to CptBengal
quote:
We are like 4/20 for 110 yds, 0 tds and 1 int.
The question was in regards to efficiency. The numbers you provided would be inefficient.
No math required.
You're welcome.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:38 pm to trooploop
Yeah, but you still have it as number two when it should be now tied with third down conversions with two other things ahead of it. Also, still not addressing reasons for ordering when their are ties.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:39 pm to jimbeam
quote:
When did we ever so that?
I don't know, I was providing a hypothetical to answer the question asked:
quote:
so under 50% completion is efficient, right?
It can be, just as over 50% completion rate doesn't guarantee a high efficiency rating.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:54 pm to WildTchoupitoulas
One thru five are the obvious winners....good work. 
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:08 pm to Sasquatch Smash
You are right on both counts. I should have done a better job proofing. Thanks for the corrections.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:12 pm to trooploop
Not a problem. Way to put in some work.
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