- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Some basic numbers about CWS game 1 losers since 1995
Posted on 6/15/15 at 11:33 am
Posted on 6/15/15 at 11:33 am
I just took a look at the last 20 seasons, 1995-2014. Take this for whatever it's worth.
Of the 40 teams to make the finals:
-30 won first two games
-5 won first, lost second
-5 lost first and advanced though loser's bracket to finals
-3 lost first game and won CWS (2010 USCe, 2006 OrSU, 1998 USCw)
-2 lost by 7+ in game 1 and made final: 2002 South Carolina lost 0-11, 2006 OrSU lost 1-11
-1 lost game 1 by 7+ and won final (Oregon State 06)
-0 were national seeds, lost first game by 7+ and advanced to final
So, not looking great. 5% of finals teams were in LSU's position and neither were national seeds (and presumably favored/seen as underachievers/choking) have made the finals in the last 20 years. Here's hoping for the best.
Of the 40 teams to make the finals:
-30 won first two games
-5 won first, lost second
-5 lost first and advanced though loser's bracket to finals
-3 lost first game and won CWS (2010 USCe, 2006 OrSU, 1998 USCw)
-2 lost by 7+ in game 1 and made final: 2002 South Carolina lost 0-11, 2006 OrSU lost 1-11
-1 lost game 1 by 7+ and won final (Oregon State 06)
-0 were national seeds, lost first game by 7+ and advanced to final
So, not looking great. 5% of finals teams were in LSU's position and neither were national seeds (and presumably favored/seen as underachievers/choking) have made the finals in the last 20 years. Here's hoping for the best.
This post was edited on 6/15/15 at 1:10 pm
5
Posted on 6/15/15 at 11:48 am to ChunkyLover54
Stats started off good, but then you sort of tailed into to small of a sample size to really measure.
If you would have stopped here, that would have been good. 25% of the teams that made it to the final started off in the loser bracket. That's a pretty significant number. But as for the rest, there is too small of a sample size.
How many teams lost by 7+ in those first 2 games? What was there final results?
How many national seeds lost by 7 plus? And, how many of those national seeds that lost by 7+ lost to another national seed.
Also, how many teams that lost in the CWS had more errors in that game than any other game they played during the season? Of those teams, how many had that trend continue? IMO, there are too many factors that someone can use to argue why LSU will lose tomorrow and/or why they will win the next 6 games.
quote:
-30 won first two games
-5 won first, lost second
-5 lost first and advanced though loser's bracket
If you would have stopped here, that would have been good. 25% of the teams that made it to the final started off in the loser bracket. That's a pretty significant number. But as for the rest, there is too small of a sample size.
quote:
-2 lost by 7+ and made final: 2002 South Carolina lost 0-11, 2006 OrSU lost 1-11
How many teams lost by 7+ in those first 2 games? What was there final results?
quote:
-0 were national seeds, lost first game by 7+ and advanced to final
How many national seeds lost by 7 plus? And, how many of those national seeds that lost by 7+ lost to another national seed.
Also, how many teams that lost in the CWS had more errors in that game than any other game they played during the season? Of those teams, how many had that trend continue? IMO, there are too many factors that someone can use to argue why LSU will lose tomorrow and/or why they will win the next 6 games.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 11:52 am to Weekend Warrior79
quote:Boom
25% of the teams that made it to the final started off in the loser bracket.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 11:57 am to Weekend Warrior79
quote:
25% of the teams that made it to the final started off in the loser bracket.
5/40 is not 25%..
Posted on 6/15/15 at 11:58 am to goldenbadger08
in the last 20 years, teams that lost their first game went 40-40 (.500) in their next game.
just FYI
just FYI
Posted on 6/15/15 at 11:59 am to gizmoflak
Posted on 6/15/15 at 12:09 pm to Weekend Warrior79
quote:
Stats started off good, but then you sort of tailed into to small of a sample size to really measure.
This is an informational post, not a scholarly journal, thus "Take this for whatever it's worth" and I'm sorry it's not up to your standards. Feel free to look up the additional info.
The small sample size was tailored to LSU's circumstance and teams who made the finals. 20 years is all I chose to dedicate to this project and it seemed large enough to conclude with reasonable confidence (though not statistically significant) that it's possible but not probable--a conclusion that seems pretty obvious to begin with.
quote:
How many national seeds lost by 7 plus? And, how many of those national seeds that lost by 7+ lost to another national seed.
Zero who made the finals
This post was edited on 6/15/15 at 12:21 pm
Posted on 6/15/15 at 12:27 pm to ChunkyLover54
quote:
0 were national seeds, lost first game by 7+ and advanced to final
So LSU will set another first...
Posted on 6/15/15 at 12:27 pm to LSURulzSEC
That's the plan
This post was edited on 6/15/15 at 12:28 pm
Posted on 6/15/15 at 12:34 pm to LSURulzSEC
quote:
So LSU will set another first...
So you're expecting that they learn how to hit a baseball between now and tomorrow @ 2:00?
Posted on 6/15/15 at 12:41 pm to Weekend Warrior79
quote:
there are too many factors that someone can use to argue why LSU will lose tomorrow and/or why they will win the next 6 games.
I'd like to see the argument for why they will win the next six games. That should be interesting.
This post was edited on 6/15/15 at 12:42 pm
Posted on 6/15/15 at 12:42 pm to EyeOfTheTiger311
quote:
So you're expecting that they re-learn how to hit a baseball between now and tomorrow @ 2:00?
I don't thinks it's learning from scratch, but forgetting somehow along the way.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 12:51 pm to Weekend Warrior79
quote:
If you would have stopped here, that would have been good. 25% of the teams that made it to the final started off in the loser bracket.
No, they didn't start off in the loser's bracket. Some of them didn't get into the loser's bracket until after winning a game and then losing the second one.
Also, although this is not your error so much as the OP's, the number of CWS finalists who went into the loser's bracket is not the relevant question. It's what proportion of teams that go into the loser's bracket get to the CWS final. 120 teams have gone into the loser's bracket after their first or second game since 1995. 10 of those (8.3%) made it to the final, and only three of 80 first game losers (3.75%) won the CWS (according to his numbers).
This post was edited on 6/15/15 at 12:54 pm
Posted on 6/15/15 at 1:00 pm to ChunkyLover54
quote:
So, not looking great. 5% of teams in LSU's position and neither were national seeds (and presumably favored/seen as underachievers/choking) have made the finals in the last 20 years. Here's hoping for the best.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 1:08 pm to Nuts4LSU
quote:
Also, although this is not your error so much as the OP's, the number of CWS finalists who went into the loser's bracket is not the relevant question. It's what proportion of teams that go into the loser's bracket get to the CWS final. 120 teams have gone into the loser's bracket after their first or second game since 1995. 10 of those (8.3%) made it to the final, and only three of 80 first game losers (3.75%) won the CWS (according to his numbers).
Tough crowd. I'm just laying out some basic numbers. Please interpret how you want. Although I disagree, at this point i think the more relevant question is about teams losing game 1, not so much the loser's bracket in general because there are different paths to the losers bracket.
But yes, your post is correct, but my emphasis was on the teams in the finals, not the entire field. The percentages I gave (5%) is simply 2/40.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 1:21 pm to LSURulzSEC
quote:There is a reason the Tigers were ranked #1 for a large part of the season.
So LSU will set another first
Have faith.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 1:46 pm to Nuts4LSU
so historically speaking basically there's a 12.5% chance (5/40) that one of the four teams that lost their first game make it to the finals, but any one team (LSU) in this case there's a 6.25% chance of making it to the finals (5/80)
again just based on these #'s there were 80 teams to lose their first game in the last 20 years and 5 made it to the finals
again just based on these #'s there were 80 teams to lose their first game in the last 20 years and 5 made it to the finals
This post was edited on 6/15/15 at 1:47 pm
Posted on 6/15/15 at 2:23 pm to Godfather1
You beat me to it
This post was edited on 6/15/15 at 2:24 pm
Posted on 6/15/15 at 2:35 pm to FUBAR
100% of the teams that score more points than its opponent wins the game.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 2:42 pm to Indigold
quote:
5/40 is not 25%..
Obviously he meant to word it "came out of the loser's bracket," which would have accounted for the other 5. But yay nitpicking.
Page 1 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News