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re: So youre telling me theres a chance!
Posted on 10/29/14 at 12:22 pm to LSUtillidie311
Posted on 10/29/14 at 12:22 pm to LSUtillidie311
The crazy thing about this is that the big if in the scenario is if we can win out.
The rest of the scenario is actually not that unrealistic to think could happen.
We finally have our best defensive players on the field now we just need to get our offense straightened out - Jennings actually makes a number of real quality passes. He is not terrible and he is definitely not JJ 2.0. I dont think we can win out with the vanilla game plan we have had so far this year, but I sure hope we can!
The rest of the scenario is actually not that unrealistic to think could happen.
We finally have our best defensive players on the field now we just need to get our offense straightened out - Jennings actually makes a number of real quality passes. He is not terrible and he is definitely not JJ 2.0. I dont think we can win out with the vanilla game plan we have had so far this year, but I sure hope we can!
0
Posted on 10/29/14 at 12:33 pm to harry coleman beast
quote:
This is why you tards get so upset when lsu loses a game. Just enjoy the last 3 games.
after the prison rapes from AU and MS, i've come to peace with the season. i can tell you, i've enjoyed the hell out of the florida and OM games just watching the kids grow. even if they had lost to OM, i would have been very pleased with the way they played, and improved over florida.
ya'll have fun with the 'what ifs', i'll find enjoyment on more concrete, achievable expectations.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 12:35 pm to cwahl1
quote:
Not one of those results is anywhere near far fetched.
Seems reasonable. However, what is far-fetched is for all of that to happen. Here's an example with probabilities in parens:
1. LSU -- wins out. (50%)
2. MSST -- Loses to Bama and Ole Miss (50%)
3. Ole Miss -- Loses to Auburn, beats MSST. (50%)
4. Bama -- Beats MSST and Auburn (50%; portion of which captured above)
5. Auburn -- Beats Ole Miss, Loses to Georgia and Alabama (50%; portion of which is captured in above)
Overall probability of LSU going to SECCG = 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 3%
Posted on 10/29/14 at 12:39 pm to cwahl1
quote:
1. LSU -- wins out.
2. MSST -- Loses to Bama and Ole Miss
3. Ole Miss -- Loses to Auburn, beats MSST.
4. Bama -- Beats MSST and Auburn
5. Auburn -- Beats Ole Miss, Loses to Georgia and Alabama
Not one of those results is anywhere near far fetched.
You obviously never took statistics in college....if so, you missed the chapter on probability.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 12:47 pm to K E V 8 4
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/29/14 at 12:49 pm
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:00 pm to K E V 8 4
quote:
Seems reasonable. However, what is far-fetched is for all of that to happen. Here's an example with probabilities in parens: 1. LSU -- wins out. (50%) 2. MSST -- Loses to Bama and Ole Miss (50%) 3. Ole Miss -- Loses to Auburn, beats MSST. (50%) 4. Bama -- Beats MSST and Auburn (50%; portion of which captured above) 5. Auburn -- Beats Ole Miss, Loses to Georgia and Alabama (50%; portion of which is captured in above) Overall probability of LSU going to SECCG = 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 3%
It's been a minute, but I think your math is off. Something in there about (n - 1) and some factorials I don't see =)
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:03 pm to cwahl1
It's happened before. Let us not speak of it again so we don't jinx it.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:07 pm to PurpleandGeauld
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:07 pm to dagrippa
Weirder things have happened (2007), but I'm not going to sit here and worry about every scenario falling into place. I'm going to enjoy watching the next few LSU games, and if by some chance with two weeks left to the college football season we still have scenarios where it can happen, then I will be pulling for it with some hope that it can happen. There is just too much football left to be played to worry about it right now.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:09 pm to TIGERSby10
WE cannot do anything but cheer loudly and hope. LSU can win all their games and see where the chips fall.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:13 pm to TIGERSby10
Since we have a bye week, it's something to think about and help make this Saturday more interesting. If we do finish 10-2 and everything doesn't work out to get us to Atlanta, I'll still be very happy with how we turned the season around.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:15 pm to K E V 8 4
quote:
Nah....I think it's ok.
Yeah, it is. I looked it up, I was remembering formulas for stuff like how to figure powerball odds, where the odds for 2nd and subsequent numbers drawn had to have previously picked balls removed from the chance. Sorry bout that
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:17 pm to HappyTigerDay
quote:
State has to lose 3 games. Here's the best scenario:
Not sure they have to lose 3, I could be wrong though. Because if Ole miss bama and lsu only lose two as well, then that means Ole miss and bama hold tie breaker over state, we hold tie breaker over Ole miss and bama.
Auburn needs to lose 3 though, state, uga, bama.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:17 pm to HappyTigerDay
quote:
Mississippi State has to lose 3 games. If they only have 2 losses, they then hold the tie breaker over LSU
It's OK to listen and not be so headstrong about being wrong.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:24 pm to harry coleman beast
quote:
This is why you tards get so upset when lsu loses a game. Just enjoy the last 3 games.
Exactly. Some (a lot) of our fans are getting themselves keyed up about even remote chances of playing for the national championship. When, or if, we lose any of our last three games, these same fans will be here condemning our coaches and players for blowing a chance at the championship.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:35 pm to LSUtillidie311
Going to hard to thread the needle with this scenario. I do not see MSU or Auburn losing 2 more games. Auburn will be favored in all but the iron bowl, and that's only because it's on the road. MSU will be favorites in all but the Alabama game. LSU will also be a home underdog against Alabama.
Too many things have to break right
Too many things have to break right
Posted on 10/29/14 at 2:02 pm to dgnx6
No way auburn loses to all three IMO. I would be elated if we finish 10-2 though.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 2:05 pm to droliver
So you chimed in to tell us that bama will be favored in every game they play for the rest of the season?
Posted on 10/29/14 at 3:18 pm to bradybones24
quote:
You obviously never took statistics in college....if so, you missed the chapter on probability.
ACTUALLY I did great in statistics at LSU.
I didn't want to ruin my sunshine pump by combining the likelihood of all these things happening though, each individual result of those games is not far fetched. That's what I was saying.
Just letting you know who to root for
Posted on 10/29/14 at 3:22 pm to Eternally Undefeated
quote:
Some (a lot) of our fans are getting themselves keyed up about even remote chances of playing for the national championship. When, or if, we lose any of our last three games, these same fans will be here condemning our coaches and players for blowing a chance at the championship.
Just to clarify though, I am just excited at the prospect of this season not being ruined yet. However at the beginning of the season I would have been happy with 8-4 as a reasonable person.
The team is playing above and beyond and I am just commemorating the team for being alive this late in the season. Auburn beats Ole Miss this weekend and we will be alive for a whole nother week with only 3 to go!
This post was edited on 10/29/14 at 3:22 pm
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