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re: Reality check, Tigers are in for a struggle
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:54 am to BornKjun
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:54 am to BornKjun
quote:
Even if the statistics are lying
1) The sample size for both teams is really small
2) Stats tend to be inflated early in the season based on scheduling
3) You didn't actually conduct a statistical analysis; you just used an eyeball measurement. If you really ran the stats then I am curious what your P value was, and what alpha did you use.
4) Looking at the stats using my eyeball method, UF has played bad passing teams. The one good passing D we faced, we actually faired pretty well.
0
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:56 am to BornKjun
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:57 am to DamnStrong1860
quote:
bad O's at Kent
Kent won more games last year and had the best tandem of rbs in all of football. We were actually lucky that dri was hurt.
Their O doesnt suck.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:59 am to DamnStrong1860
quote:
This game is about special teams.
Yeah statistics shows we own them in that department. Their kicker hasnt been consistent, and even great kickers miss in dv regularly.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:00 pm to DamnStrong1860
quote:
LSU is at least 7 points better than Miami
At least...and FL lost their best DL since then.
If our defense plays average, we win by 7-10 pts.
If our defense plays at the MSU level, it's gonna be closer than that.
If our defense plays like garbage (a real possibility), we could lose...but even then we'll have a puncher's chance due to our elite offense.
LSU is going to score 30+ IMO.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:01 pm to BornKjun
My big issue with your statistics is that they don't factor in the competition at all. LSU averages 90 more passing yards per game than Florida's previous competition. And LSU scores 15 points more, on average. The only team who scores as much as LSU was Miami. And Florida lost that game.
Florida does have a GOOD defense this year. But LSU has a really good offense this year. Our top two receivers are in a three-way tie for the most plays of 10+ yards in the nation. EACH of them have 29 such plays. Only one other player in the nation has as many, and these guys play on the same team!
It's impossible to double cover them both and contain them for the whole game. Florida has never had to deal with a duo like the Landry and Beckham yet.
Your statistics don'e show anything. They give credit to what Florida has done (which is deserved), but don't account for the fact that LSU will be the best competition they've played to date.
Florida does have a GOOD defense this year. But LSU has a really good offense this year. Our top two receivers are in a three-way tie for the most plays of 10+ yards in the nation. EACH of them have 29 such plays. Only one other player in the nation has as many, and these guys play on the same team!
It's impossible to double cover them both and contain them for the whole game. Florida has never had to deal with a duo like the Landry and Beckham yet.
Your statistics don'e show anything. They give credit to what Florida has done (which is deserved), but don't account for the fact that LSU will be the best competition they've played to date.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:02 pm to MasonTiger
STATS!!! OMG what are we gonna do 
Come on dude, you know stats never tell the full story. This is basically our first home SEC game, our D is getting better and we HAVE to win this one to stay in SEC/Natty contention. Our crowd will be going off! F your stats
Come on dude, you know stats never tell the full story. This is basically our first home SEC game, our D is getting better and we HAVE to win this one to stay in SEC/Natty contention. Our crowd will be going off! F your stats
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:03 pm to MasonTiger
quote:
Florida will have to make a few mistakes
They will, it will be intimidating environment for young QB
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:05 pm to dgnx6
quote:
Kent won more games last year and had the best tandem of rbs in all of football. We were actually lucky that dri was hurt.
I don't disagree. I guess my point is that if you throw out our best performances and our worst we're giving up about 24. I don't think Florida is any better than that.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:06 pm to BornKjun
quote:
Reality check, Tigers are in for a struggle
Yeah, no shite Sherlock.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:10 pm to BornKjun
UUhhh....hate to be the one to point this out, but...your 'stats' don't include one very important component.
We got 'Da Cam'.
We got 'Da Cam'.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:11 pm to Radiojones
Toledo has the highest ranked offense that FLA has faced #29
Miami #32
Arkansas #40
Tenn #54
Kentucky #92
And you wonder why their defense numbers are so good.
LSU #4!
Miami #32
Arkansas #40
Tenn #54
Kentucky #92
And you wonder why their defense numbers are so good.
LSU #4!
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:11 pm to BornKjun
I think Murphy turns the ball over at least 3 times in this game.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:13 pm to BornKjun
quote:
Still, if you think the passing game will explode in this game, you know something the statistics don't
I do know something you don't. The 3 league opponents that Florida has faced (Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arkansas)have the 12th, 13th, and 14th ranked offenses in the SEC. They haven't seen a good offense yet.
Do I think LSU will "explode" in this game? Probably not. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if LSU has its lowest offensive output all year (their low is about 430 yards).
We will simply find out on Saturday what the stats mean. Until then, it is just conjecture. To draw a conclusion and say Team X will win due to what is on paper is absurd.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:14 pm to BornKjun
quote:
BornKjun
CSB
You should throw you’re name in the hat for the Texas job. You clearly have an understanding of the game that rivals most.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:18 pm to DamnStrong1860
quote:
I don't disagree. I guess my point is that if you throw out our best performances and our worst we're giving up about 24. I don't think Florida is any better than that.
And that is prob what they will score. while we score 31.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:20 pm to BornKjun
You really don't know much, sorry to break it to you.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:22 pm to BornKjun
Mark Twain lost three fortunes in his lifetime he said there are three klnd of lies, lies, damn lies and statistics and he knew what he was talking about!
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:25 pm to BornKjun
I believe the original post is right on. It is going to be a close game. Our defense will see to that.
Defensively, we will give up points. Florida will run on our front four. Hopefully, we can hold Florida in the red zone to field goal attempts.
Offensively, we need to score at least 3 touchdowns and sustain drives (i.e., no more than four "three and outs" for the entire game).
The game will come down to turnovers, mental errors and discipline.
Defensively, we will give up points. Florida will run on our front four. Hopefully, we can hold Florida in the red zone to field goal attempts.
Offensively, we need to score at least 3 touchdowns and sustain drives (i.e., no more than four "three and outs" for the entire game).
The game will come down to turnovers, mental errors and discipline.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:27 pm to LSU316
I think I'll go with the experts statistical favor of LSU to win, moron. You wasted your time with your post.
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