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re: Realistic %chances tonight

Posted on 6/26/17 at 4:34 pm to
Posted by moneyg
Member since Jun 2006
56865 posts
Posted on 6/26/17 at 4:34 pm to
quote:

After the last 2 games, you give us a 10% chance. Jeez



We had two GREAT pitching performances. Is that our ticket to winning tonight? Is that what we're hoping for?
Posted by wesman21
Youngsville
Member since Jun 2009
2935 posts
Posted on 6/26/17 at 4:35 pm to
I ran my spreadsheets, they give us a 53.21% chance of winning.

Russ Reynolds goes 6.1 innings but has to throw 110 pitches, bullpen closes the door afterwards. Tigers win 7 to 4.
Posted by moneyg
Member since Jun 2006
56865 posts
Posted on 6/26/17 at 4:37 pm to
quote:

Why? Just relax, have a drink, watch the game.



That's exactly what I'll be doing.

I was interested in seeing someone break down HOW we get it done...cause I'm struggling with coming up with a plausible scenario myself.
Posted by moneyg
Member since Jun 2006
56865 posts
Posted on 6/26/17 at 4:40 pm to
quote:

LSU has 4-5 pitchers that are likely available tonight. On any given night, any of those guys could come out and absolutely stifle the other team. They have done it in the past and are capable of doing it again.



Fair enough. What would a plausible pitching box score look like, in your opinion. I'm guessing Newman plays a huge role, no?
Posted by Comp721
Member since Oct 2009
1585 posts
Posted on 6/26/17 at 4:51 pm to
quote:

What we are asking out of Reynolds and the rest of the staff tonight makes the Gilbert performance seem like we were throwing Lange

Uhhh what? Florida can't hit as good as OSU and their pitcher tonight isn't as good as any of OSU's Saturday
Posted by thelawnwranglers
Member since Sep 2007
38886 posts
Posted on 6/26/17 at 4:54 pm to
100% chance of downvote baw
Posted by Knight of Old
New Hampshire
Member since Jul 2007
11075 posts
Posted on 6/26/17 at 4:54 pm to
Hold FLA to 3 runs or less, LSU win probability way over 50%.

If FLA scores over 3, LSU win probability sinks proportionally. (i.e., each FLA run over 3 further decreases LSU odds of winning)

I'm going with LSU over FLA, 4-3.

JMO...
Posted by MottLaneKid
Gonzales
Member since Apr 2012
4543 posts
Posted on 6/26/17 at 5:01 pm to
There is always a chance. LSU has overcome the odds to be in this position. The tigers have momentum and are playing inspired baseball. Winning what ? 20 out of 21 games ?

Game one : LSU 5 Florida 3

O/U 8 runs
This post was edited on 6/26/17 at 5:03 pm
Posted by NotRight37
Nashville, TN
Member since Jul 2014
5843 posts
Posted on 6/26/17 at 5:15 pm to
I believe LSU has beaten the best team they will play this year 2 out 3. Hell, I'm still not sure LSU is better than the Beavers, but the Tigers won when it counted. Having said that both these teams tonight are damn good teams. Both struggled at times but finished strong...LSU a bit stronger. I like our chances.
Posted by tarzana
TX Hwy 6--Brazos River Backwater
Member since Sep 2015
26424 posts
Posted on 6/26/17 at 5:16 pm to
guerilla ball > Florida pitching

I want the Tigers to WIN!
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