- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Occam's Razor : Rating Coaches
Posted on 8/24/17 at 7:48 pm
Posted on 8/24/17 at 7:48 pm
Coaching comparisons are dicey..and there's the problem of stats-- which stats are most relevant?
I thought about the old Occam's Razor approach, i.e. keep things as simple as possible.
The attempt here is to look into a basic relationship: talent vs. performance.
I'm listing recruiting to gauge the talent level, vs final season rankings to gauge performance level.
Give me ur feedback.
It's not meant to be a perfect analysis, just an attempt to get beyond most comparisons that have been done to death,
especially coaches' winning percentage, which tends to skew big-game performance: defeating a top-5 team is far beyond defeating a team that's ranked 25th-- yet they're both considered "ranked" opponents in determining most winning percentages.
Ok.
Each year of Miles' coaching is shown,
...then the following number shows the rating of that year's recruiting class (averaged*)
...and the next number shows the team's actual performance by how we finished in the rankings :
2005 : recruited...18......finished # 6
2006 : recruited.....7......finished # 3
2007 : recruited.....5......finished # 1
2008 : recruited...10......finished # unranked
2009 : recruited.....2......finished # 17
2010 : recruited.....7......finished # 8
2011 : recruited.....8......finished # 2
2012 : recruited...13......finished # 14
2013 : recruited.....7......finished # 14
2014 : recruited.....2......finished # unranked
2015 : recruited.....9......finished # 16
__
* = Note the recruiting averages: Did my best to average the ratings from all 4 of the main recruiting groups:
Rivals, Scouts.com, 247 and Scouts.Inc--
I did NOT use a calculator to average their ratings tho you can go to the link below to check them out--
I tried not to average too hi or low,
because simply put,
no one agrees on which recruiting site is best--and all 4 group's ratings varied alot.
You can see all 4 lists here: LINK
I thought about the old Occam's Razor approach, i.e. keep things as simple as possible.
The attempt here is to look into a basic relationship: talent vs. performance.
I'm listing recruiting to gauge the talent level, vs final season rankings to gauge performance level.
Give me ur feedback.
It's not meant to be a perfect analysis, just an attempt to get beyond most comparisons that have been done to death,
especially coaches' winning percentage, which tends to skew big-game performance: defeating a top-5 team is far beyond defeating a team that's ranked 25th-- yet they're both considered "ranked" opponents in determining most winning percentages.
Ok.
Each year of Miles' coaching is shown,
...then the following number shows the rating of that year's recruiting class (averaged*)
...and the next number shows the team's actual performance by how we finished in the rankings :
2005 : recruited...18......finished # 6
2006 : recruited.....7......finished # 3
2007 : recruited.....5......finished # 1
2008 : recruited...10......finished # unranked
2009 : recruited.....2......finished # 17
2010 : recruited.....7......finished # 8
2011 : recruited.....8......finished # 2
2012 : recruited...13......finished # 14
2013 : recruited.....7......finished # 14
2014 : recruited.....2......finished # unranked
2015 : recruited.....9......finished # 16
__
* = Note the recruiting averages: Did my best to average the ratings from all 4 of the main recruiting groups:
Rivals, Scouts.com, 247 and Scouts.Inc--
I did NOT use a calculator to average their ratings tho you can go to the link below to check them out--
I tried not to average too hi or low,
because simply put,
no one agrees on which recruiting site is best--and all 4 group's ratings varied alot.
You can see all 4 lists here: LINK
10
Posted on 8/24/17 at 7:51 pm to Ball_Bearings
Would be better to average the previous 4 recruiting classes in column 1
Posted on 8/24/17 at 7:53 pm to Ball_Bearings
Shouldn't the expected finish be a rolling average, with more weight given to the recruiting classes from 3-4 years ago? The 2005 recruiting class didn't give us too many starters for the 2005 season.
Posted on 8/24/17 at 7:57 pm to Draconian Sanctions
Good ideas there on both posts..
btw what i was referring to - about the "average of all 4" was the problem of having those 4 recruiting websites/services for each season.
The one thing that jumps out as very difficult in all this:
how to figure out the growth-curve of recruits, at least in general?---
such as, how do we gauge the time it takes most coaches to develop a few years worth of recruits when trying to compare different coaches?
btw what i was referring to - about the "average of all 4" was the problem of having those 4 recruiting websites/services for each season.
The one thing that jumps out as very difficult in all this:
how to figure out the growth-curve of recruits, at least in general?---
such as, how do we gauge the time it takes most coaches to develop a few years worth of recruits when trying to compare different coaches?
This post was edited on 8/24/17 at 7:59 pm
Posted on 8/24/17 at 7:58 pm to Ball_Bearings
Like a poster before me said, it would be better to average out the 4 recruiting classes which make up each year and then rank them compared to other schools' 4 year average in that year. LSU would've been in the top 5 in talent probably every single year if that method was used- our talent lately has been grossly underrated by some people on this board. We were head and shoulders above everyone else aside from Alabama lately talent-wise and our results on the field were slipping at the same time
Posted on 8/24/17 at 8:05 pm to LSUgrad08112
On average, that's 1 of the reasons I thought about this type of comparison,
because I think our talent level outweighed our production a number of times.
And then it gets dicey as to arguments about "under-achieving" -- yes if i had alot more caffeine & know how, I'd try to workout some better grouped clusters of recruits-
***Hint to all u younger or more energetic posters out there***
because I think our talent level outweighed our production a number of times.
And then it gets dicey as to arguments about "under-achieving" -- yes if i had alot more caffeine & know how, I'd try to workout some better grouped clusters of recruits-
***Hint to all u younger or more energetic posters out there***
Posted on 8/24/17 at 8:05 pm to Ball_Bearings
Sorry, but it's not really an accurate application of Occam's Razor applied here at all. Stopped reading not much further after that.
Posted on 8/24/17 at 8:07 pm to Ball_Bearings
People should go back and take a look at which players out of those class's actually performed at their ranking, lower or higher. It's interesting if you have time to do it. Many guys don't pan out in a typical class. Some classes were ranked really high but had a minimum amount of people actually pan out. Not so much in the latest classes but even some of those you would be surprised how many didn't play a role at all.
The problem is I wouldn't know how to compare that to other teams or damn sure don't have time to figure it out.
The problem is I wouldn't know how to compare that to other teams or damn sure don't have time to figure it out.
Posted on 8/24/17 at 8:11 pm to Ball_Bearings
The fact that NO ONE wanted Miles anywhere near their program in the offseason is the best, most impartial gauge of his rating as a coach.
Posted on 8/24/17 at 8:12 pm to Ball_Bearings
Do you even know what Occam's Razor means? Obviously not since you gave us a TL;DR.
Posted on 8/24/17 at 8:18 pm to DIGGY
Ding ding ding. Les Miles would have been considered a legend by all if he would have just kept good assistants (and let them call the offense) around. If he would have done that this team would have likely won multiple championships with him.
I'll never know why the guy hated creativity or the forward pass so much. You go back and look at Jerrett Lee's performances (not a Lee fan) and he was a very accurate QB when in rhythm. Our offenses just didn't get our QBs in a rhythm before attempting the more difficult passes. When LSU did do that our QBs usually played well.
It's like he would just randomly say, run or pass on a particular down, instead of actually running an offense that gets the defense's eyes moving away from the action. It's a little mind blowing IMO.
I'll never know why the guy hated creativity or the forward pass so much. You go back and look at Jerrett Lee's performances (not a Lee fan) and he was a very accurate QB when in rhythm. Our offenses just didn't get our QBs in a rhythm before attempting the more difficult passes. When LSU did do that our QBs usually played well.
It's like he would just randomly say, run or pass on a particular down, instead of actually running an offense that gets the defense's eyes moving away from the action. It's a little mind blowing IMO.
This post was edited on 8/24/17 at 8:20 pm
Posted on 8/24/17 at 8:35 pm to BayouBengal99
BayouBengal99, agreed for the most part--
on defense, Les delivered by every standard.
while on offense, our talent seemed mired by telegraphed play calling & problems developing QB's.
Seems as if it reached a point at which top QB recruits weren't hoping to come here.
BTW guys --- as far as Occam's Razor --
I said that my coaching stuff here was based on trying to focus on 1-relationship:
talent vs. performance.
If ur going to complain that my other info somehow nullified the Occam's Razor mode,
then I really wonder if u know how to enjoy sports --
there's splitting hairs-- then there's splitting smaller hairs w/ Occam's razor.
Sheeeeez.
on defense, Les delivered by every standard.
while on offense, our talent seemed mired by telegraphed play calling & problems developing QB's.
Seems as if it reached a point at which top QB recruits weren't hoping to come here.
BTW guys --- as far as Occam's Razor --
I said that my coaching stuff here was based on trying to focus on 1-relationship:
talent vs. performance.
If ur going to complain that my other info somehow nullified the Occam's Razor mode,
then I really wonder if u know how to enjoy sports --
there's splitting hairs-- then there's splitting smaller hairs w/ Occam's razor.
Sheeeeez.
Posted on 8/24/17 at 8:44 pm to BayouBengal99
Miles will be remembered as more of a legend as time and hurtful memories past.
First 7 years with 2 National Championship games!
Unfortunately look at those last four years compared to potential. He just got hard headed and too predictable.
Occam's Razor, is that the brand Canada and Aranda use on their scalps?
First 7 years with 2 National Championship games!
Unfortunately look at those last four years compared to potential. He just got hard headed and too predictable.
Occam's Razor, is that the brand Canada and Aranda use on their scalps?
Posted on 8/24/17 at 8:58 pm to Gaspergou202
quote:
Occam's Razor, is that the brand Canada and Aranda use on their scalps?
finally someone w/ a sense of humor..
Posted on 8/24/17 at 9:01 pm to Ball_Bearings
Wow, Saban sucks using this method. 
Posted on 8/24/17 at 9:49 pm to Ball_Bearings
quote:
finally someone w/ a sense of humor..
We can agree on that. This thread is a joke.
Posted on 8/24/17 at 10:55 pm to Penrod
quote:
Wow, Saban sucks using this method.
So true. A reason why this is a cool analysis and post. Sticking with 'Occam's Razor', how about stripping away everything but 'the game passed Miles by'?
This post was edited on 8/24/17 at 11:16 pm
Posted on 8/25/17 at 3:30 am to Ball_Bearings
I use the Occam's Razor theory on here quite often and will continue to do so.
Posted on 8/25/17 at 4:49 am to BayouBengal99
If a frog had wings
Posted on 8/25/17 at 5:36 am to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
Would be better to average the previous 4 recruiting classes in column 1
This. That one particular recruiting class has the least amount of impact on the season. The 3 before that are way more relevant.
Page 1 of 2
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News