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Message
Misconception on SEC Basketballs strength
Posted on 1/4/17 at 11:14 pm
Posted on 1/4/17 at 11:14 pm
Lots of talk about the SEC being terrible in basketball this year (again). However, by the RPI and most of statistical analysis (KenPom, KPI, etc) the SEC is as strong as it's been in a long time. By the almighty (albeit flawed) RPI, the SEC has:
- 2 of the top 5 (Florida and UK)
- 4 of top 27 (Arkansas, Georgia)
- 7 of top 56 (South Carolina, ole miss, vandy)
- 11 of top 100 (Alabama, lsu, auburn, UT, A&M)
Lots of quality RPI teams out there in conference because teams scheduled smarter in Non-Conf. LSU has zero losses to team outside RPI top 100 and lots of quality wins to get in conference.
Plenty of flaws on this team but some are going overboard on how bad LSU and the SEC is this year.
- 2 of the top 5 (Florida and UK)
- 4 of top 27 (Arkansas, Georgia)
- 7 of top 56 (South Carolina, ole miss, vandy)
- 11 of top 100 (Alabama, lsu, auburn, UT, A&M)
Lots of quality RPI teams out there in conference because teams scheduled smarter in Non-Conf. LSU has zero losses to team outside RPI top 100 and lots of quality wins to get in conference.
Plenty of flaws on this team but some are going overboard on how bad LSU and the SEC is this year.
5
Posted on 1/4/17 at 11:16 pm to BayouWolf
RPI has LSU as top 100. That pretty much disproves everything.
This post was edited on 1/4/17 at 11:17 pm
Posted on 1/5/17 at 1:59 am to BayouWolf
quote:
LSU has zero losses to team outside RPI top 100 and lots of quality wins to get in conference.
We also played how many inside the top 100? Easy to have zero losses to top 100 teams when you barely play any.
Keep in mind we still play State twice who has a Mizzou type RPI. Loss to them would be horrific.
Posted on 1/5/17 at 2:26 am to More beer please
Why dont you look at the RPI before you make your shitty post.
Jeez.
LINK
By the way jackass, we've played a bunch of top 100 rpi teams.
Wichita state - 73 ,
Vcu - 32,
college of charleston - 52,
Texas southern - 58,
Wake forest - 20,
Vanderbilt - 61.
I'll keep in mind that you dont know what the frick you're talking about
Jeez.
LINK
By the way jackass, we've played a bunch of top 100 rpi teams.
Wichita state - 73 ,
Vcu - 32,
college of charleston - 52,
Texas southern - 58,
Wake forest - 20,
Vanderbilt - 61.
I'll keep in mind that you dont know what the frick you're talking about
Posted on 1/5/17 at 2:40 am to P bean
quote:
Texas southern - 58,
Posted on 1/5/17 at 9:04 am to BayouWolf
Agree with this. As happens often, come tourney time, SEC will disprove all of the prognosticators
Posted on 1/5/17 at 9:07 am to P bean
quote:
Why dont you look at the RPI before you make your shitty post.
quote:
Texas southern - 58,
If that isnt a dead giveaway the RPI is currently not usable yet I'm not sure what is. Teams like TSU play all these top teams, lose to them all, and have a high RPI. Then get into conference play and their RPI drops 100 spots 6-7 games in.
Posted on 1/5/17 at 9:12 am to P bean
It doesn't take away from the fact we have a terrible defensive basketball team....they play street ball and are horribly coached.
Posted on 1/5/17 at 9:31 am to P bean
quote:
I'll keep in mind that you dont know what the frick you're talking about
Says the guy listing Texas Southern as a quality opponent.
Posted on 1/5/17 at 9:35 am to lsu2006
quote:
Texas Southern as a quality opponent.
they'll win their conference
Posted on 1/5/17 at 9:46 am to P bean
quote:
college of charleston - 52,
Texas southern - 58,
These two finna drop like a rock when they play their conference opponents.
Posted on 1/5/17 at 10:16 am to P bean
quote:
college of charleston - 52,
Texas southern - 58,
These rankings are going to plummet as they go through conf. play. TSU won't be a sub 100 team at the end of the year, and COC will have to really do damage in conf. play to end up sub 100.
quote:
Vcu - 32,
That number will drop significantly if/when they lose in conf. play
quote:
Wake forest - 20
Wake did well in non-conf. play. However, they are going to get eaten alive in ACC play. They already have losses to FSU and Clemson, and are lookin at a 1-4 star with UVA and UNC next up. It will be a HUGE accomplishment for them to finish in the top-50. That means they didn't get their asses routinely kicked in the ACC. Unless they get hot quickly, they are a bottom-tier team in a strong ACC
As others have said, the RPI is an unreliable metric at the moment. For instance, Ole Miss is 52. However, looking closely at that ranking you'll see they played a tough OOC schedule but beat no-one of note in those games. They also get an early benefit from opening SEC play against UK and Fla. Uless they start stringing together a bunch of wins (and their schedule isn't favorable for doing so), that 52 ranking is going to plummet.
Most of the SEC (not LSU) scheduled well in OOC play. The problem is outside of UF and UK, they didn't win many of the games against good teams from other power conferences.
Posted on 1/5/17 at 12:47 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:system sucks. losing to a better team should not upgrade your rating.
Teams like TSU play all these top teams, lose to them all, and have a high RPI. Then get into conference play and their RPI drops 100 spots 6-7 games in.
I could see how you would not FALL much if you lost to a better team.
winning over bad RPI teams should not be a detriment to your rating.
whole system is turrble
Posted on 1/5/17 at 12:55 pm to CelticDog
quote:
system sucks. losing to a better team should not upgrade your rating.
TSU went 4-9 in OOC play, wins over Rice, Lasalle, Delaware State and James MAdison...Got them a Top 50 RPI because they lost to UT-Arlington, ULL, Arizona, Southern Illinois, Louisville, Cincinnati, LSU, TCU and Baylor
Posted on 1/5/17 at 12:59 pm to P bean
P Bean - did you have a bad day at the office? Nice vitrol for a 2am post.
I did, used ESPN's RPI ranking (which are very similar to NCAA.org). SEC RPI Ranking as of 1/5/17
Link shows updated rankings after last nights games. 12 of the 14 SEC teams are in the top 100. That has not happened in a long time - that's the jist of my initial post - the SEC is not AS bad as some are making it out to be.
As flawed as RPI is - the committee puts weight into it as do pundits (top 50 and top 100 wins matter).
You may have had slurred speech and red eyes when you read my initial post, but nowhere did I mention that we HAVE NOT played top 100 teams - I said we have not lost to any team OUTSIDE of the top 100 RPI.
We all can manipulate data to make points - maybe that's what I'm doing but all I know is that in the last 10 years, I cant' remember a time when the SEC had this many teams in the top 100 of the RPI in January.
quote:
Why dont you look at the RPI before you make your shitty post.
I did, used ESPN's RPI ranking (which are very similar to NCAA.org). SEC RPI Ranking as of 1/5/17
Link shows updated rankings after last nights games. 12 of the 14 SEC teams are in the top 100. That has not happened in a long time - that's the jist of my initial post - the SEC is not AS bad as some are making it out to be.
As flawed as RPI is - the committee puts weight into it as do pundits (top 50 and top 100 wins matter).
quote:
By the way jackass, we've played a bunch of top 100 rpi teams.
You may have had slurred speech and red eyes when you read my initial post, but nowhere did I mention that we HAVE NOT played top 100 teams - I said we have not lost to any team OUTSIDE of the top 100 RPI.
We all can manipulate data to make points - maybe that's what I'm doing but all I know is that in the last 10 years, I cant' remember a time when the SEC had this many teams in the top 100 of the RPI in January.
Posted on 1/5/17 at 1:04 pm to CelticDog
quote:
system sucks. losing to a better team should not upgrade your rating.
I don't know the RPI formula, but losing a close game to a better team certainly could move the losing team up, but it depends on the margin of the loss.
Without context, losing to Kentucky doesn't mean much. But losing by 1 to KY is far different than losing by 30.
So I hope margin of victory is part of the formula, and a "quality loss" can, and should, help a losing team's RPI.
Same with wins over bad teams.
Posted on 1/5/17 at 1:09 pm to atltiger6487
quote:
I don't know the RPI formula, but losing a close game to a better team certainly could move the losing team up, but it depends on the margin of the loss.
RPI doesnt take into account margin of victory. Doesn't matter if you lose 66-67 on a bad call or 48-94...RPI only looks at wins and losses of teams you've played and team's they've played. That's why it's so jacked up until the end of the season once everyone is well into conference play. Teams like TSU go 4-9 against OOC but end up with a Top 50 RPI becuase they've played teams with very good records and those teams have played teams with decent to good records mostly.
Posted on 1/5/17 at 1:42 pm to atltiger6487
quote:
I don't know the RPI formula,
I don't know what it is now, but it used to be pretty simple:
25% is your winning percentage
50% is your opponents' winning percentage
25% is your opponents' opponents' winning percentage
I'm all for counting schedule strength in a rating system, but making schedule strength 75% of the formula seems excessive. I think it's why the ratings are so unreliable. A weak team in a strong conference will be overrated because of schedule strength and vice versa for a strong team in a weak conference.
Posted on 1/5/17 at 1:46 pm to P bean
I will keep in mind that you don't either. If you think all of those except VCU and Wichita don't drop severely now tha conference play starts then idk what to tell you.
But love the name calling right off the bat.
But love the name calling right off the bat.
Posted on 1/5/17 at 1:59 pm to P bean
He said LSU hasn't lost to an outside of the top 100 rpi team..so how about you read and comprehend the post before you act like a dick...i can't stand this crap. Whenever somebody just talks to someone like a dog ,just cuz they don't agree with them..i get its cuz they are such douche bags that nobody wants to be around them and there such pussys that they have to get on here and talk shot because this is the only place they can find someone to talk too, and especially someone to talk shite to ,without gettilng there arse beat
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