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LSU Basketball - NCAA Tourney Team Sheet
Posted on 12/17/18 at 9:46 am
Posted on 12/17/18 at 9:46 am
I'll plan to update this weekly, but below is LSU's "team sheet", which is what the selection committee uses to help select the NCAA Tourney field. I'm not going to regurgitate all the details but you can see an example from last year with definitions here:
For the 2018-19 season, it utilizes the new "NET" rating, which replaces the antiquated RPI. It also incorporates other highly regarded analytics sites like KPI, KenPom, Sagarin, etc. Generally speaking, if you end up having averages in the 30's, you are in very good shape for a bid - and every year teams in the 40's and sometimes higher get some of the last at large bids. (there are 36 at large bids each year).
A few observations in changes from 2 weeks ago -
- With LSU's 3-game winning streak over St Mary's, Furman and ULM, they have risen in every tracked ranking.
- They improved ~9 spots (~2 seed lines) on average in the results-based metrics and ~4 spots (1 seed line) on the predictive metrics.
- LSU is ranked highest at #26 in both the NET ranking and KPI. They are ranked lowest by ESPN's BPI at #47.
- SEC has 8 teams in the top 50 of the NET and 12 of the 14 teams are in the top 100.
LSU as of 1/2 -------
Results Based Metrics:
NET - #26
KPI - #26
SOR - #46
Average - #33
Predictive Metrics
KenPom - #40
Sagarin - #41
BPI - #47
Average - #43
W/L by Quadrant
Quad 1: 0-2 (FSU, @HOU)
Quad 2: 3-1 (UNC-G, Charleston, St Mary's, Okie St)
Quad 3: 3-0 (Memphis, La Tech, Furman)
Quad 4: 4-0 (SELA, Grambling, Incarnate Word, ULM)
For the 2018-19 season, it utilizes the new "NET" rating, which replaces the antiquated RPI. It also incorporates other highly regarded analytics sites like KPI, KenPom, Sagarin, etc. Generally speaking, if you end up having averages in the 30's, you are in very good shape for a bid - and every year teams in the 40's and sometimes higher get some of the last at large bids. (there are 36 at large bids each year).
A few observations in changes from 2 weeks ago -
- With LSU's 3-game winning streak over St Mary's, Furman and ULM, they have risen in every tracked ranking.
- They improved ~9 spots (~2 seed lines) on average in the results-based metrics and ~4 spots (1 seed line) on the predictive metrics.
- LSU is ranked highest at #26 in both the NET ranking and KPI. They are ranked lowest by ESPN's BPI at #47.
- SEC has 8 teams in the top 50 of the NET and 12 of the 14 teams are in the top 100.
LSU as of 1/2 -------
Results Based Metrics:
NET - #26
KPI - #26
SOR - #46
Average - #33
Predictive Metrics
KenPom - #40
Sagarin - #41
BPI - #47
Average - #43
W/L by Quadrant
Quad 1: 0-2 (FSU, @HOU)
Quad 2: 3-1 (UNC-G, Charleston, St Mary's, Okie St)
Quad 3: 3-0 (Memphis, La Tech, Furman)
Quad 4: 4-0 (SELA, Grambling, Incarnate Word, ULM)
This post was edited on 1/2/19 at 11:18 am
2
Posted on 12/17/18 at 9:59 am to BayouWolf
The game Friday night is huge!!! Need that quad 1 win, last chance for big win before conference
Posted on 12/17/18 at 10:02 am to chipdouglas96
The PMAC needs to be loud!
Posted on 12/17/18 at 10:06 am to eetiger
Lsu marketing dept should be non stop promo of this game. Ads on all tv stations, the advocate and all social media platforms. And get red panda in town!!!
Posted on 12/17/18 at 10:07 am to chipdouglas96
quote:
. And get red panda in town!!!
One does not simply get red panda in town. She has to be booked months and months in advance. especially during basketball season which is her busy time.
Posted on 12/17/18 at 10:10 am to SouthOfSouth
Well get someone for some half time entertainment.
They also should do a tiger village like they do for football and make it like a tailgate with food and drinks and a band. Similar to ours the pelicans game at smoothie king center
They also should do a tiger village like they do for football and make it like a tailgate with food and drinks and a band. Similar to ours the pelicans game at smoothie king center
Posted on 12/17/18 at 10:14 am to chipdouglas96
quote:
Lsu marketing dept should be non stop promo of this game. Ads on all tv stations, the advocate and all social media platforms. And get red panda in town!!!
Agreed.......the majority of the fan base probably has no idea we’re playing a ranked team on Friday.
Posted on 12/17/18 at 10:21 am to SouthOfSouth
Stick man. So underrated.
Posted on 1/2/19 at 11:59 am to BayouWolf
1/2 Update -
A few observations in changes from 2 weeks ago -
- With LSU's 3-game winning streak over St Mary's, Furman and ULM, they have risen in every tracked ranking.
- They improved ~9 spots (~2 seed lines) on average in the results-based metrics and ~4 spots (1 seed line) on the predictive metrics.
- LSU is ranked highest at #26 in both the NET ranking and KPI. They are ranked lowest by ESPN's BPI at #47.
- SEC has 8 teams in the top 50 of the NET and 12 of the 14 teams are in the top 100.
LSU as of 1/2 -------
Results Based Metrics:
NET - #26
KPI - #26
SOR - #46
Average - #33
Predictive Metrics
KenPom - #40
Sagarin - #41
BPI - #47
Average - #43
W/L by Quadrant
Quad 1: 0-2 (FSU, @HOU)
Quad 2: 3-1 (UNC-G, Charleston, St Mary's, Okie St)
Quad 3: 3-0 (Memphis, La Tech, Furman)
Quad 4: 4-0 (SELA, Grambling, Incarnate Word, ULM)
A few observations in changes from 2 weeks ago -
- With LSU's 3-game winning streak over St Mary's, Furman and ULM, they have risen in every tracked ranking.
- They improved ~9 spots (~2 seed lines) on average in the results-based metrics and ~4 spots (1 seed line) on the predictive metrics.
- LSU is ranked highest at #26 in both the NET ranking and KPI. They are ranked lowest by ESPN's BPI at #47.
- SEC has 8 teams in the top 50 of the NET and 12 of the 14 teams are in the top 100.
LSU as of 1/2 -------
Results Based Metrics:
NET - #26
KPI - #26
SOR - #46
Average - #33
Predictive Metrics
KenPom - #40
Sagarin - #41
BPI - #47
Average - #43
W/L by Quadrant
Quad 1: 0-2 (FSU, @HOU)
Quad 2: 3-1 (UNC-G, Charleston, St Mary's, Okie St)
Quad 3: 3-0 (Memphis, La Tech, Furman)
Quad 4: 4-0 (SELA, Grambling, Incarnate Word, ULM)
Posted on 1/7/19 at 11:17 am to BayouWolf
1/7 Update
LSU's metrics have surprisingly not changed much since last week given they did not play. Going solely on metrics, they pencil out to a #9 or #10 seeds going into SEC play. They are currently 4-3 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams which is very solid, including 2 neutral site Quad 2 wins.
The SEC strength on paper is very good this year and as of now, LSU will have 9 opportunities for Quad 1 wins in SEC play. 15 of the 18 conference games are currently Quad 1 or Quad 2 opportunities. Still a lot of moving parts but a 10-8 SEC record would generated 10+ Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins, which should put LSU comfortably in the tournarment.
All starts with holding serve at home against a Bama team that always gives us problems.
LSU's metrics have surprisingly not changed much since last week given they did not play. Going solely on metrics, they pencil out to a #9 or #10 seeds going into SEC play. They are currently 4-3 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams which is very solid, including 2 neutral site Quad 2 wins.
The SEC strength on paper is very good this year and as of now, LSU will have 9 opportunities for Quad 1 wins in SEC play. 15 of the 18 conference games are currently Quad 1 or Quad 2 opportunities. Still a lot of moving parts but a 10-8 SEC record would generated 10+ Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins, which should put LSU comfortably in the tournarment.
All starts with holding serve at home against a Bama team that always gives us problems.
Posted on 1/7/19 at 12:00 pm to BayouWolf
the bama game just got huge. they looked very smooth against ky in a rather well played game. i had low expectations for bama but, they have a nice mix and a more experienced roster than lsu. it would not surprise me if they catch lsu early on but, these are the games that wade was hired to win and the roster is certainly good enough.
after that, the tigers have 7 imminently winnable games (@mizz is probably the toughest) before the msu, auburn, ky stretch in the middle of the conference schedule. losing all 3 of those would be no crime. honestly, ky might be the worst of the 3 but it's way tough to beat them in rupp. i don't expect lsu to beat state in starkville. they return almost everything from a very solid squad last year.
anyway, lsu needs to bank as many of the first 8 as possible because they might go 0-3 against the heavyweights. i would hope that lsu can steal at least one of those but, it might be a lot to ask for from a new/young team.
buckle up. it's about to get interesting. if lsu can make 11-7 in the conference, that's 21-10 overall. that would be clear improvement over last season.
btw, ky draws msu, auburn and tenn TWICE! ouch.
after that, the tigers have 7 imminently winnable games (@mizz is probably the toughest) before the msu, auburn, ky stretch in the middle of the conference schedule. losing all 3 of those would be no crime. honestly, ky might be the worst of the 3 but it's way tough to beat them in rupp. i don't expect lsu to beat state in starkville. they return almost everything from a very solid squad last year.
anyway, lsu needs to bank as many of the first 8 as possible because they might go 0-3 against the heavyweights. i would hope that lsu can steal at least one of those but, it might be a lot to ask for from a new/young team.
buckle up. it's about to get interesting. if lsu can make 11-7 in the conference, that's 21-10 overall. that would be clear improvement over last season.
btw, ky draws msu, auburn and tenn TWICE! ouch.
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