re: Leonard Fournette odds to win Heisman - updated: 33/1

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142 and 203 carries isn't going to win the Heisman. They need at least 25-30 carries a game.

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Hill played exactly 3 quarters in his first three games and rushed for 167 yards and 3 TDs on 17 carries. He then ran for 1234 yards and 13 TDs in the next 10 games on 186 carries. He also caught all 18 of his passes the last 9 games.

That means after his punishment, he average 18.6 carries a game, 123.4 yards a game, and 1.3 TDs a game. Also in those 10 games, 1.8 catches a game, 18.1 yards a game. Let's just say he didn't have a punishment, over a full season, his stats would have been something like this:

241.8 attempts
1604.2 yards
16.9 TDs
23.4 receptions
235.3 yards

So while he wouldn't have been a heisman contender, (he would have if he came back this year), he would still put up 1839 total yards and 17 TDs.

That's why I said that I would be happy with Fournette if he just finished his junior year like that. If Fournette is better than Hill was his second year, in 2015, he is definitely a heisman contender and possible winner. Mainly because I think we have a team that can win it all next year. It's the main reason why Ingram beat out Toby Gerhart (sp?) in 2009.

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It's too much to expect him to win this year

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It's too much to EXPECT him to win one at all.