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Is there a reason LSU is 2 point underdogs tomorrow at home vs A&M?
Posted on 1/19/24 at 6:07 pm
Posted on 1/19/24 at 6:07 pm
Am I missing something?
If homecourt accounts for 3 points, they’re saying we’re 5 points worse than them?
I know they didn’t shoot well last time, but LSU blasted them on the road .
If homecourt accounts for 3 points, they’re saying we’re 5 points worse than them?
I know they didn’t shoot well last time, but LSU blasted them on the road .
11
Posted on 1/19/24 at 6:09 pm to GCTiger11
They took us lightly last time. That won’t happen again. They are actually a pretty good team.
Posted on 1/19/24 at 6:10 pm to GCTiger11
Because LSU isn’t that good
Posted on 1/19/24 at 6:21 pm to GCTiger11
Take a look at the NET rankings and KenPom, I know those aren't primary reasons but they do factor in, I think.
People basically see aTm as a better team than LSU and one game rarely changes that perception. They have an identity as a stingy defensive team, LSU really doesn't have an identity, to me. If LSU can string together a couple of more SEC wins they will probably move up a bit in those. I think if they put together a good consistent 40 minutes, it will help perception. The team has not done that very often if at all. I think the identity they want is good defense and points in transition off of turnovers and defensive rebounds. I think, not sure though. Consistent play should clarify that.
NET
aTm - 44
LSU - 90
POM
aTm - 36
LSU - 84
People basically see aTm as a better team than LSU and one game rarely changes that perception. They have an identity as a stingy defensive team, LSU really doesn't have an identity, to me. If LSU can string together a couple of more SEC wins they will probably move up a bit in those. I think if they put together a good consistent 40 minutes, it will help perception. The team has not done that very often if at all. I think the identity they want is good defense and points in transition off of turnovers and defensive rebounds. I think, not sure though. Consistent play should clarify that.
NET
aTm - 44
LSU - 90
POM
aTm - 36
LSU - 84
Posted on 1/19/24 at 6:58 pm to GCTiger11
Trap
Posted on 1/19/24 at 7:16 pm to mdomingue
quote:I started writing up a true explanation for OPs question...
mdomingue
quote:And I just deleted the shite out of it. I do want to be better explaining basketball, but it's such a loaded question with Vegas Odds being the OP.
Is there a reason LSU is 2 point underdogs tomorrow at home vs A&M?
I could probably explain odds, probability, etc. to OP and wouldn't make any difference at all, let alone in relative terms to LSU Basketball.
Posted on 1/19/24 at 7:43 pm to GCTiger11
A&M is really better than they've played. I have a suspicion they'll come out like those late 60's/early 70's UCLA teams tomorrow afternoon, and Buzz will show us the real Aggy team
Posted on 1/19/24 at 7:48 pm to GCTiger11
We were 7.5 point dogs at A&M
Posted on 1/19/24 at 7:57 pm to GCTiger11
They beat Kentucky this week. They were an 1.5 favorite when we beat them
Posted on 1/19/24 at 8:02 pm to Cadello
quote:
We were 7.5 point dogs at A&M
11.5.
We have overachieved. They have really underachieved. They showed that they are still capable of being elite after beating Kentucky. You know they will be hungry to win after getting embarrassed on their home court. Will be interesting to see what happens.
Still confused why LSU is playing the same team twice in the first 5 games.
Posted on 1/19/24 at 8:03 pm to mdomingue
LSU’s NET since Cook got eligible is #6. Check my math.
Posted on 1/19/24 at 8:09 pm to GCTiger11
The oddsmakers don’t just sit around and make subjective guesses on games based upon what they watch. They have data driven analytical (numerical) predictive power ratings. Similar, but not quite exactly like KenPom, Sargain, etc.
The analytical data suggests A&M is a top 40 team. LSU is in the 80’s. Ole Miss, for example was in the 70’s going into Wednesday night despite being ranked 22 in the human polls. The oddsmakers don’t care, at all, about the human polls. They simply trust their own data.
That data predicts A&M is 5-7 points better than LSU right now. LSU as the home team gets anywhere from 4-6 points added to their predictive number. Therefore, you get a line of LSU (+1 or +2)
The analytical data suggests A&M is a top 40 team. LSU is in the 80’s. Ole Miss, for example was in the 70’s going into Wednesday night despite being ranked 22 in the human polls. The oddsmakers don’t care, at all, about the human polls. They simply trust their own data.
That data predicts A&M is 5-7 points better than LSU right now. LSU as the home team gets anywhere from 4-6 points added to their predictive number. Therefore, you get a line of LSU (+1 or +2)
Posted on 1/19/24 at 8:34 pm to purplengold1
quote:
twice in the first 5 games
It's the vagaries of scheduling. Same pattern as last year vs Arkansas; beat em at home by 2, blown out in the rematch in Fayetteville
Posted on 1/19/24 at 8:49 pm to drizztiger
quote:
And I just deleted the shite out of it. I do want to be better explaining basketball, but it's such a loaded question with Vegas Odds being the OP.
I could probably explain odds, probability, etc. to OP and wouldn't make any difference at all, let alone in relative terms to LSU Basketball.
Yep. Vegas does a relatively good job with predictions taken as a whole but individual games are kind of a crap shoot, especially in basketball and even more so in baseball.
Vegas does the balancing act of trying to get relatively balanced betting from the average gamblers without putting too attractive a bet out for the sharps. At least that is my understanding as a nongambler.
Posted on 1/19/24 at 8:56 pm to TigerAttorney
quote:
Because LSU isn’t that good
Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe frick yourself.
Posted on 1/19/24 at 9:27 pm to mdomingue
quote:This here could be one of the best posts ever.
Yep. Vegas does a relatively good job with predictions taken as a whole but individual games are kind of a crap shoot, especially in basketball and even more so in baseball.
Vegas does the balancing act of trying to get relatively balanced betting from the average gamblers without putting too attractive a bet out for the sharps. At least that is my understanding as a nongambler.
"Preface to say, I'm not a degenerate gambler, however..."
I know what you meant and understand, but that's funny to me.
Posted on 1/19/24 at 10:01 pm to drizztiger
quote:
Preface to say, I'm not a degenerate gambler, however
Posted on 1/20/24 at 12:18 am to mhc4tigers
quote:
They beat Kentucky this week
They also got beat by a shitass Arkansas team in another game they were favored in.
Posted on 1/20/24 at 12:26 am to mhc4tigers
quote:
They were an 1.5 favorite when we beat them
Wrong
Posted on 1/20/24 at 6:59 am to GCTiger11
They are the better team.
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