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Hypothetical Expectations Following a HC Change
Posted on 2/5/15 at 3:35 pm
Posted on 2/5/15 at 3:35 pm
There has been a lot of noise made about the "Les Miles Clause" and the 2-year Contract for all Assistant Coaches which has led to rampant speculation that Miles is either mulling retirement or facing the possibility of losing his position following the 2016 season.
Now, while I tend to believe that Miles will stay on at least until the expiration of his contract in 2019, I thought it would be a topic for discussion following the finalization of NSD.
Following the 2004 season, Nick Saban had compiled the following recruiting classes in the years prior to the regime change.
2001 - 26 Commitments 5 - 5* 3 - 4* 1st SEC 2nd NCAA
2002 - 24 Commitments 0 - 5* 7 - 4* 8th SEC 21st NCAA
2003 - 28 Commitments 0 - 5* 17 - 4* 2nd SEC 3rd NCAA
2004 - 25 Commitments 3 - 5* 9 - 4* 1st SEC 3rd NCAA
Les Miles inherited the team in 2005 and compiled a 34-6 record with these players, including the 2007 National Championship.
Fast Forward 12 years and Miles has put together the following classes
2013 - 27 Commitments 0 - 5* 19- 4* 3rd SEC 6th NCAA
2014 - 27 Commitments 4 - 5* 13 - 4* 2nd SEC 2nd NCAA
2015 - 25 Commitments 2 - 5* 11 - 4* 3rd SEC 5th NCAA
Including a 2016 class, in which LSU is garnering serious interest from at least 8 5* prospects, the talent accrued in the last several years is simply astounding.
With this in mind, and considering that barring unforeseen circumstances, LSU would enter the 2017 season Brandon Harris in his Senior season, with Shea Patterson and/or Feleipe Franks waiting as Redshirt Freshmen, what should be the expectations in the first 3 years for a replacement for Les Miles?
However unlikely, assume this is the only HC change that takes place in the next 5 years in the Division.
Now, while I tend to believe that Miles will stay on at least until the expiration of his contract in 2019, I thought it would be a topic for discussion following the finalization of NSD.
Following the 2004 season, Nick Saban had compiled the following recruiting classes in the years prior to the regime change.
2001 - 26 Commitments 5 - 5* 3 - 4* 1st SEC 2nd NCAA
2002 - 24 Commitments 0 - 5* 7 - 4* 8th SEC 21st NCAA
2003 - 28 Commitments 0 - 5* 17 - 4* 2nd SEC 3rd NCAA
2004 - 25 Commitments 3 - 5* 9 - 4* 1st SEC 3rd NCAA
Les Miles inherited the team in 2005 and compiled a 34-6 record with these players, including the 2007 National Championship.
Fast Forward 12 years and Miles has put together the following classes
2013 - 27 Commitments 0 - 5* 19- 4* 3rd SEC 6th NCAA
2014 - 27 Commitments 4 - 5* 13 - 4* 2nd SEC 2nd NCAA
2015 - 25 Commitments 2 - 5* 11 - 4* 3rd SEC 5th NCAA
Including a 2016 class, in which LSU is garnering serious interest from at least 8 5* prospects, the talent accrued in the last several years is simply astounding.
With this in mind, and considering that barring unforeseen circumstances, LSU would enter the 2017 season Brandon Harris in his Senior season, with Shea Patterson and/or Feleipe Franks waiting as Redshirt Freshmen, what should be the expectations in the first 3 years for a replacement for Les Miles?
However unlikely, assume this is the only HC change that takes place in the next 5 years in the Division.
5
Posted on 2/5/15 at 3:42 pm to chilge1
quote:
what should be the expectations in the first 3 years for a replacement for Les Miles?
this is the rant, if he doesn't win a national championship halfway through his first season people will want him fired
Posted on 2/5/15 at 3:44 pm to chilge1
wow. this took you a hell of a lot of effort so I will give it a shot.
I believe LSU is a top job and an opening will garner a lot of attention. but, just like the bama job and recently the florida job timing is everything. assuming we will pay relative to what we are currently we should be able to attract a coach that is worthy enough to handle the job. if this coach hires good position coaches and can recruit he will do well.
what else can one say? we could get stuck with a sexy hire (like muschamp) and lay an egg or we could get a decent coach (like arky) and be an 8-10 win club. maybe, just maybe, we get a Kelly type and kick some arse. the odds are we get the 8-10 win guy just because there simply aren't very many top guys out there, must less available at any one time.
I believe LSU is a top job and an opening will garner a lot of attention. but, just like the bama job and recently the florida job timing is everything. assuming we will pay relative to what we are currently we should be able to attract a coach that is worthy enough to handle the job. if this coach hires good position coaches and can recruit he will do well.
what else can one say? we could get stuck with a sexy hire (like muschamp) and lay an egg or we could get a decent coach (like arky) and be an 8-10 win club. maybe, just maybe, we get a Kelly type and kick some arse. the odds are we get the 8-10 win guy just because there simply aren't very many top guys out there, must less available at any one time.
Posted on 2/6/15 at 10:09 am to chilge1
Post-Basketball Bump
Posted on 2/6/15 at 10:17 am to chilge1
No inside info or anything but it does seem as if Miles is pulling the pin after 2016, on his own terms. That would put him at 63 or 64 I think.
He is in good health and has plenty of money and may want to go enjoy life without the stress of running a huge program.
LSU is a top 5 job in my opinion and will be loaded with talent. If he is angling for 2016 I bet you see more effort and urgency than we have seen the last few years, Miles is a lot of things but you can bet he wants to go out a winner. All that sets up the next guy in spades.
He is in good health and has plenty of money and may want to go enjoy life without the stress of running a huge program.
LSU is a top 5 job in my opinion and will be loaded with talent. If he is angling for 2016 I bet you see more effort and urgency than we have seen the last few years, Miles is a lot of things but you can bet he wants to go out a winner. All that sets up the next guy in spades.
This post was edited on 2/6/15 at 10:20 am
Posted on 2/6/15 at 10:42 am to chilge1
No way to predict this. If you get Urban Meyer'ish coach you will maintain or even be better. You get Brady Hoke'ish coach you're doomed.
Posted on 2/6/15 at 10:48 am to The Mick
Our last two HCs came from Michigan State and Oklahoma State with a record of 34-24 (23-16) and 28-21 (16-16), respectively.
I would assume going this route again (mildly successful collegiate HC with NFL experience)... I would love to get James Franklin, but Penn State has already matched what Miles is making here, so I don't see that as realistic.
Otherwise, I don't see any names that jump out to me.
I would assume going this route again (mildly successful collegiate HC with NFL experience)... I would love to get James Franklin, but Penn State has already matched what Miles is making here, so I don't see that as realistic.
Otherwise, I don't see any names that jump out to me.
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