re: HR results from the flat seam baseball

this is fantastic

I don't even...

Do we have numbers on homers hit in Omaha? I'd be curious to see that number and then the number subtracting Florida. They probably hit as many as every team in Omaha combined.

14 this year. 3 last year.

Since you've been asking me to post in this thread so everyone can see who the moron is, lemme tell you exactly why you're wrong about expecting LSU to hit 20 more home runs this year.

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The average team has 30 homers this season over a 56-game schedule. It had 21 last season.
LSU saw an increase from 41 to 51 home runs. So we were a little below average in terms of percentage increase. The number suggest we should have had at least 58 HRs with 65 being a good guess considering we were a top 5 hitting team by average. So the preseason guess of 60 HRs was spot on. Just some bad luck didn't get us there.

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The 40% increase that you keep quoting isn't based upon LSU's 40 home runs last year, it's based upon the national average of 21 home runs going to 30 home runs. Which is an increase of 9 home runs per team. The fact that media outlets are using the "40%" number doesn't apply to every team, it's just typical sensationalist media trying to drum up excitement. The only team that the 40% increase would apply to was a team that hit exactly 21 home runs last year and 30 home runs this year.

As I said, the better way to say that "home runs over all of college baseball were up 41%" would be to say that home runs are up, on average, by 9 per team, especially when you consider the fact that 90% of college baseball teams hit between 15 and 25 home runs last year. To say it another way: implying that home runs are up by 40% per team is absolute bullshite and anyone can see that if you look at the numbers. 40% average increase when you're dealing with data distributed unevenly does not equal 40% per team unless that team is right on the average.

Saying that LSU should expect to hit 60 home runs because we hit 40 last year and the national average went from 21 to 30 is no different than saying that because the national income average is up from $50,000 to $70,000 that every person who makes $200,000 should expect to make $280,000 next year.

That being said, I don't think anybody expected LSU to only hit 51 home runs this year with our veteran leadership and improved lineup, but I had every single person in the thread that he linked telling me that I'm an idiot to not expect LSU to gain 20 home runs (double the actual national average per team) solely because the NCAA uses new baseballs now. I crunched some numbers before the season started and predicted that the new baseballs along were going to add around 10 home runs max by themselves.

Granted, some teams hit a lot more like Vandy for other reasons, but when you look the average per team across the country, it turns out that I was off by one. Since teams get better/worse year by year and some gained a ridiculous amount and some hit far less, it's better to use the national average per team. Assuming that there are 300 D1 teams (pretty sure there are actually 294) the amount of home runs went from 6,300 in 2014 to 9,000 in 2014, or around 2,700 more home runs for 300 teams, so it's fair to infer that exactly 9 per team on average can be directly attributed to the baseballs

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LSU saw an increase from 41 to 51 home runs. So we were a little below average in terms of percentage increase. The number suggest we should have had at least 58 HRs with 65 being a good guess considering we were a top 5 hitting team by average. So the preseason guess of 60 HRs was spot on. Just some bad luck didn't get us there.

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This is an idiotic breakdown of what those the numbers I quoted earlier imply. If you follow the national average by using the +9 number and not a pointless percentage that only applies to the national average of 21 to 30, you can use the data that we have after this season to say that it was fair to predict that, just off of the new balls, LSU was going to go from 41 to 50 home runs if all things stayed the same (which considering how similar our lineup was in 2014 and 2015, I'd say that's fair). We actually outperformed the national average and gained 10 home runs instead of the predicted 9.

Was it possible for LSU to hit 60 home runs as a team this year? Sure. The NCAA leader hit 90 this year so I don't see why we couldn't do the same. Should it have been expected considering the fact that the balls have been proven to only add 9-10 home runs per team? Nope, so quit telling everybody that, if you can't see why you're wrong now then reread this post over and over until it sinks in. Maybe you should check again on who the idiot that doesn't understand simple math is, Ell

Lol ell whipped your arse on that anchored thread... just saying.

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post in this thread so everyone can see who the moron is

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Mission accomplished.

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Since you've been asking me to post in this thread so everyone can see who the moron is

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Well you definitely showed everyone that you are the moron.

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The 40% increase that you keep quoting isn't based upon LSU's 40 home runs last year, it's based upon the national average of 21 home runs going to 30 home runs. Which is an increase of 9 home runs per team. The fact that media outlets are using the "40%" number doesn't apply to every team, it's just typical sensationalist media trying to drum up excitement. The only team that the 40% increase would apply to was a team that hit exactly 21 home runs last year and 30 home runs this year.

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Well yeah. There are teams that do better and teams that do worse. On average a team increased their HRs by 40%. LSU did worse than the average.

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As I said, the better way to say that "home runs over all of college baseball were up 41%" would be to say that home runs are up, on average, by 9 per team, especially when you consider the fact that 90% of college baseball teams hit between 15 and 25 home runs last year. To say it another way: implying that home runs are up by 40% per team is absolute bullshite and anyone can see that if you look at the numbers. 40% average increase when you're dealing with data distributed unevenly does not equal 40% per team unless that team is right on the average

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Good job pulling numbers out your arse. 105 teams hit between 15 and 25 HRs last year. Good for 35% of the teams. Those teams were ranked 95-199. This year, 84 teams hit between 15 & 25 HRs. These teams were ranked 170-253. Bit of a difference, eh?

Another stat for you, of the top 50 teams in HRs this year, 34 of them increased their HR total by at least the 19 we needed to hit 60. The average percentage increase for the top 50 teams was 80%. 39 out of the top 50 teams increased by more than 40%. LSU was in the top 50, while only increasing by 24%.


I'd continue, but it doesn't seem like you will understand it anyway. Your whole post is just a poor understanding of statistics and pulling shite out of thin air.

The home runs in the CWS are somewhat inflated because of the wind change for a couple of days caused by hurricane bill to the south resulting in the wind blowing out. While there are definitely many more than they past couple of years, there were quite a few hit over the days that the wind was blowing out, which never happens

It's blowing out today... no hurricane. 1 HR.