re: how many wins

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i think we need more help than most of you realize. our rpi is in the 50s and there are 5 sec teams with better rpi than us

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This.

There is no set amount of games LSU needs to win to be "in" or "safe". A win Saturday against a good Ole Miss team would help the RPI. Wins over Ark and Ole Miss would REALLY help the RPI.

The selection committee doesn't really care where you finished in your conf standings. They look at the season as a whole. The "bad" for LSU is that their SOS (especially non-Conf) is pretty weak. That, coupled with the 3 RPI killing losses to AU,Mizzou and MSU is why LSU has a 52 RPI ranking.

The good is that LSU has won 4 games against the RPI top 50 with a chance to pick up at least two more. Compare to A&M who has zero top 50 wins at the moment (though sadly LSU getting into the RPI top 50 also helps A&M)

Any combination that makes up 23.

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Any combination that makes up 23.

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Agreed. Winning 2 out of 3 to finish the regular season, and then winning our first SEC tournament game, should be plenty.

I think people trust KenPom even more than BPI... We are 29th in KenPom.

RPI is so frustrating because playing 5 good teams and 5 bad teams shouldn't equal playing 10 mediocre teams, but that is how RPI works.

Whether a team is 350th or 200th, LSU should win, but the game vs 200 is so much better for RPI than 350. That just doesn't make logical sense. I think the committee looks at LSU and see's a team that is a top 40 team without very much doubt.

They don't do blind resume's. They allow the eye test to make it's way into selections, and you cannot watch LSU vs UK, WVU, Aub, Tenn, OleMiss, etc and not see a team that deserves to be in the tournament.

You have to realize, it's not the losses to Auburn, Missouri, and Miss St that are hurting our RPI, its the wins over College of Charleston, Southern Miss, McNeese St, and Savannah St that are hurting our RPI... That is stupid.

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Win 2 of the next 3= Probably in
Win the next 3= In
Win 1 of the next 3 and 1 in the SECT= Probably in
Win 2 of the next 3 and 1 in the SECT= In

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This.

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Winning 2 of the last 3 and flaming out first game in the SEC Tournament could be bad news for the Tigers.

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Winning 2 out of 3 should lock us in. That would mean we are 22-10 even if we are one and done in Nashville. UGA looks like they will lose to OM & Kentucky down the stretch. Best case scenario for UGA is 10-8 in conference and barely cracking 20 wins. I cant see the committee voting in UGA over LSU in that scenario.

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I doubt the NCAA gives the SEC 6 teams, so we have to start moving ahead of some of the teams ahead of us in the SEC standings. Although, the NCAA selection committee does not always follow only the final conference standings.

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That's right. If UGA pulls off an upset, or makes a run in Nashville, we could get bumped. The only thing in UGA's pocket right now is RPI. Lets all hope the committee does more than just look at RPI (which we all probably agree they do).

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Any 2 of the next 3.

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Agreed. No way they get in if they go 1 - 3 down the stretch.

To simplify it even further: With the tough road game at Arky, you could say that Ole Miss is the key. We should beat UT.

Then it comes down to Ole Miss and LSU as the last SEC team in. We should get the nod with the sweep, unless something crazy happens in the SEC Tourney.

Ya utah state and smu come to mind thinkijg of ranked teams that were left out of tourney. They dont look at polls one bit

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Maybe, but rpi and the polls are the 2 biggest factors the committee actually considers. And I have a really tough time believing the SEC will get 5-6 teams in because of recent history. LSU is squarely on the bubble at this point and a likely snub candidate without a really strong finish.

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Here is a good article from Jerry Palm that helps give insight into what the selection committee looks at

Link

The RPI is the only "poll" they look at. The voter polls mean nothing. Same for KenPom and the others (though KenPom is a much better predictor of success)

Conference standings also mean very little. Just last year UGA finished ahead of Tenn. in the final SEC standings and had virtually the same overall record. Yet Tenn made it in while UGA didn't. Why? Tenn had a higher RPI and much better SOS

Being "hot" at the end doesn't count for much (if anything) anymore. In 2003 an 8-8 (SEC) LSU team gets in because they were red hot down the stretch. That same team doesn't come close to getting in these days. The committee looks at the ENTIRE season, without placing more emphasis on any one stretch.

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Do you people not remember a 26-7 SEC champ squad getting an 8 seed?

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LSU might have deserved better than an 8 seed, but not much better. 08-09 was a horrible year for the SEC. Only 3 teams got into the tournament and 1 (Miss. St.) only because they unexpectedly won the SECT. Unlike this year, LSU only had 2 wins against teams that made it to the tournament (one being against MSU) They didn't play many good teams that year, but they lost to every one they played (Xavier, A&M, Utah). In fact, that LSU team's resume looks very similar to A&M's this year. Great in SEC play, but couldn't beat good teams. LSU is A&M's ONLY good wins this year

EDT: People think that the losses to AU/MSU/Mizzou are the biggest knock against LSU. While they certainly aren't good, the biggest killer for LSU is their terrible SOS (especially the non-conf) Anyone who follows this team and CBB closely knew that from the outset LSU did themselves no favors with that OOC schedule. Jones has loaded up Nov and Dec with some crappy opponents in his time here. He CAN'T keep doing it.