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re: For those complaining about Maineri and his lack of bunting
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:18 am to lsupride87
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:18 am to lsupride87
quote:
Link me to it. I am not trying to be dishonest. That was the only data I could find on single run expectancy
I will when I can get home
quote:
I have already admitted there are certain situations to bunt. It is just less than times to not bunt
That's nothing revolutionary. Anyone who has followed advanced metrics for the last 10 years or so has known that.
1
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:19 am to LSUTygerFan
quote:
#TeamNoBunt
More like #teamdoubleplay
Yeeeaaaahhh, let's not bunt Deichman. Or let's hit and run Stevie.
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:19 am to TigerCub
Good! Probability is 0.660 with bases loaded, one out. Even better.
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:21 am to josh336
quote:Correct. But alot of people dont. Like I said guys like redfield and ell are not the people this thread was actually intended for. It was for the numerous bashers in the baseball game thread that "you always bunt!!!!!!" But of course, it is actually the smarter posters like redfield and ell and you that will join the discussion, while the tards wont and will stick to their ways
That's nothing revolutionary. Anyone who has followed advanced metrics for the last 10 years or so has known that.
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:22 am to lsupride87
#teambunt
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:22 am to ell_13
quote:
You realize that your numbers are total runs and not single run? Bunting is for a single run... hitting away is usually for a multiple run inning. You also have to take into account who's hitting
This. Bunting is the right play in certain situations...otherwise, why would any professional manager ever call for it? Are they all morons?
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:23 am to Choupique19
quote:Deichmans numbers actually show he should bunt in every single situation no matter the inning
Yeeeaaaahhh, let's not bunt Deichman
Deichman avg: .000
quote:
"one should always bunt with an avg on .045 or worse"
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:25 am to lsupride87
quote:
It has been proven sac bunting gives your team a worse chance of scoring
Dude. You have the fastest guy in the conference and a good bunter at the plate in a tie game with men on first and second with no outs in the 8th inning wasn't it? YOU BUNT EVERY MOTHER ******** TIME!!! Any other time I agree I hate bunting.
This post was edited on 4/24/15 at 9:28 am
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:25 am to jose canseco
quote:I have posted the scenarios where only one run is needed..........
This. Bunting is the right play in certain situations.
quote:No, I have already posted that professional managers have all but abandoned the sac bunt. They only use it in the specific scenarios where it applies.
why would any professional manager ever call for it? Are they all morons?
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:27 am to ell_13
If the goal is maximising one run scored probability you are statistically right to bunt
1. With runner on second no outs
2. Runners second and third no outs
These situations are close to a Tossup, numbers slightly favor hit away
1. Runner on first no outs
2. Runner on first one out
These situations you still hit away
1. Runner on 2nd one out
2. Runners on first and 2nd one out
None of this takes into account individual player trends like batter avg righty lefty match ups, etc
Straight probability over a 160 season
To prides credit it is a very narrow window. Most of the time you don't bunt
1. With runner on second no outs
2. Runners second and third no outs
These situations are close to a Tossup, numbers slightly favor hit away
1. Runner on first no outs
2. Runner on first one out
These situations you still hit away
1. Runner on 2nd one out
2. Runners on first and 2nd one out
None of this takes into account individual player trends like batter avg righty lefty match ups, etc
Straight probability over a 160 season
To prides credit it is a very narrow window. Most of the time you don't bunt
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:28 am to RichardCranium
quote:Actually, lets discuss the exact situation. It appears there is slightly better chance to score a single run in the situation where you bunt there. However, for Stevenson in particular, he drives a ton of balls into the gound for high bouncing infield singles. So redfield and ell, would you think if we broke down the individual metrics for just Stevenson, do you think it may actually favor the hit and run specifically? I think it would be interesting to see. I dont think we are far away from MLB managers having saber metrics on each individual player
Dude. You have the fastest guy in the conference and a good bunter at the plate in a tie game with men on first and second with 1 out in the 8th inning wasn't it? YOU BUNT EVERY MOTHER ******** TIME!!! Any other time I agree I hate bunting
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:29 am to extremetigerfanatic
quote:Thank you. I came out guns blazing and was way to "you dont bunt". Once i settled into the discussion my main point to take way is not bunting on average is the better play
If the goal is maximising one run scored probability you are statistically right to bunt
1. With runner on second no outs
2. Runners second and third no outs
These situations are close to a Tossup, numbers slightly favor hit away
1. Runner on first no outs
2. Runner on first one out
These situations you still hit away
1. Runner on 2nd one out
2. Runners on first and 2nd one out
None of this takes into account individual player trends like batter avg righty lefty match ups, etc
Straight probability over a 160 season
To prides credit it is a very narrow window. Most of the time you don't bunt
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:30 am to extremetigerfanatic
The times I have ever bitched about bunting have been those narrow bunting situations. Ole Miss, Kentucky, and IMO, last night.
I say that college statistics would be much more relevant. And solely LSU's even more so. Say we go back to 2005 and look at the results in innings 7, 8, and 9 in 1-run situations. I'd like to see the outcome percentages.
I say that college statistics would be much more relevant. And solely LSU's even more so. Say we go back to 2005 and look at the results in innings 7, 8, and 9 in 1-run situations. I'd like to see the outcome percentages.
This post was edited on 4/24/15 at 9:32 am
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:31 am to RichardCranium
quote:No. The 6th.
in the 8th inning wasn't it
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:33 am to JP_Tiger
quote:This would be the best way for us to properly discuss and know when to CORRECTLY bash CPM
And solely LSU's even more so. Say we go back to 2005 and look at the results in innings 7, 8, and 9 in 1-run situations. I'd like to see the outcome percentages.
But I sure as hell aint taking the time to do it Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:35 am to lsupride87
quote:
Dude. You have the fastest guy in the conference and a good bunter at the plate in a tie game with men on first and second with 1 out in the 8th inning wasn't it? YOU BUNT EVERY MOTHER ******** TIME!!! Any other time I agree I hate bunting.
You would really have to feel your individual match-up percentages overwhelm the overall probabilities. Because the probability on scoring that one run drops off a ton from 1&2 one out v 2&3 two outs. It's like a 40 percent drop in probability.
And whether or not the batter is a good bunter is irrelevant to these metrics. They usually assume 100% of the time the bunt is laid down.
If you want to add how good the bunter is to the discussion it actually helps the don't bunt argument because no one is 100‰
This post was edited on 4/24/15 at 9:40 am
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:36 am to lsupride87
who in the hell would complain that p.m. doesn't bunt enough?
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:37 am to OneMoreTime
#teamwalkoffinthe9th
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:43 am to tigerdup07
We aren't arguing that PM doesn't bunt enough.
Pride stated and put forth some metrics proof that say you should essentially never bunt. Ever.
Just showing there are small specific windows where even metrics show you should still bunt, but that usually it's better not to bunt.
Pride stated and put forth some metrics proof that say you should essentially never bunt. Ever.
Just showing there are small specific windows where even metrics show you should still bunt, but that usually it's better not to bunt.
This post was edited on 4/24/15 at 9:44 am
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:46 am to extremetigerfanatic
quote:
We aren't arguing that PM doesn't bunt enough. Pride stated and put forth some metrics proof that say you should essentially never bunt. Ever. Just showing there are small specific windows where even metrics show you should still bunt, but that usually it's better not to bunt.
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