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First Level Comparison of Arkansas v. LSU
Posted on 11/22/11 at 9:27 am
Posted on 11/22/11 at 9:27 am
Comparison of Arkansas Versus LSU Against SEC Opponents
Sometimes you know something in your gut, but you haven't seen the numbers to confirm your suspicions. This is a first level comparison of Arkansas versus LSU scoring against SEC opponents.
The Arkansas offense is remarkably similar to the LSU offense in scoring against SEC opponents.
Arkansas averaged 2.2 more points against common SEC opponents: Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Tennessee.
The Arkansas offensive advantage disappears against SEC West opponents. Both teams averaged 31.25 points on offense against SEC West teams.
(The best comparison game was Ole Miss; LSU had a 44 point plus margin of victory compared to Arkansas. The worst comparison game was State; LSU had a -14 point plus margin of victory compared to Arkansas.)
The LSU defense is vastly superior to the Arkansas defense against SEC opponents.
While the difference between the two offenses is slight, the difference between the defenses is significant.
LSU's defense averaged 13.6 less points against common SEC opponents: Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Tennessee.
LSU's defensive advantage grows against SEC West opponents. LSU averaged nearly 17 points less against SEC West teams.
LSU's significant advantage on defense and near parity on offense translates into a significant advantage against SEC opponents.
While the difference between the two offenses is slight, the difference between the defenses is significant.
LSU's margin of victory is 11.4 more points against common SEC opponents: Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Tennessee.
LSU's margin of victory grows against SEC West opponents. LSU averaged nearly 17 more points in victory against SEC West teams.
Sometimes you know something in your gut, but you haven't seen the numbers to confirm your suspicions. This is a first level comparison of Arkansas versus LSU scoring against SEC opponents.
The Arkansas offense is remarkably similar to the LSU offense in scoring against SEC opponents.
Arkansas averaged 2.2 more points against common SEC opponents: Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Tennessee.
The Arkansas offensive advantage disappears against SEC West opponents. Both teams averaged 31.25 points on offense against SEC West teams.
(The best comparison game was Ole Miss; LSU had a 44 point plus margin of victory compared to Arkansas. The worst comparison game was State; LSU had a -14 point plus margin of victory compared to Arkansas.)
The LSU defense is vastly superior to the Arkansas defense against SEC opponents.
While the difference between the two offenses is slight, the difference between the defenses is significant.
LSU's defense averaged 13.6 less points against common SEC opponents: Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Tennessee.
LSU's defensive advantage grows against SEC West opponents. LSU averaged nearly 17 points less against SEC West teams.
LSU's significant advantage on defense and near parity on offense translates into a significant advantage against SEC opponents.
While the difference between the two offenses is slight, the difference between the defenses is significant.
LSU's margin of victory is 11.4 more points against common SEC opponents: Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Tennessee.
LSU's margin of victory grows against SEC West opponents. LSU averaged nearly 17 more points in victory against SEC West teams.
9
Posted on 11/22/11 at 9:30 am to just me
if they cannot stop the run we will run all day and they will not see the ball except on kickoffs
special teams favor LSU
special teams favor LSU
Posted on 11/22/11 at 9:35 am to 756
quote:
special teams favor LSU
as long as we kick it away from Adams. We should either kick it through the endzone or just kick it really high and let them fair catch it on the 35.
Our kick return team has not been great, and he is fantastic.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 9:36 am to just me
Did you bill for this?
Posted on 11/22/11 at 9:39 am to just me
Great post. I did something similar in a different post but I think I like yours better.
Arkansas' opponents and offensive and defensive rankings
Missouri St. (FCS) 2-9 (FCS)
New Mexico (Mt West) 1-11 (117/119)
Troy (Sun Belt) 3-7 (88/110)
Alabama 10-1 (20/1)
Texas A&M 6-5 (10/76)
Auburn 7-4 (78/81)
Ole Piss 2-9 (114/94)
Vanderbilt 5-6 (69/20)
South Carolina 9-2 (47/5)
Tennessee 5-6 (101/35)
Miss State 5-6 (82/51)
Combined Opponents' Record: 55-66 Avg Rank (72/59)
LSU's Schedule:
Oregon 9-2 (3/69)
North State 5-6 (FCS)
Miss State 5-6 (82/51)
West Virginia 7-3 (16/26)
Kentucky 4-7 (117/63)
Florida 6-5 (62/18)
Tennessee 5-6 (101/35)
Auburn 7-4 (78/81)
Alabama 10-1 (to LSU) (1/20)
Western KY (Sun Belt) 6-5 (103/54)
Ole Piss 2-9 (114/94)
Combined Record: 66-54 Avg Ranking: (67/49)
LSU points scored: 417 37.9 ppg Allowed: 247.9 10 ppg
AK points scored: 432 39.3 ppg Allowed: 360.3 21.1 ppg
Tougher schedule, better competition both the offenses are even in stats, LSU's D is considerably better and we beat the one team you couldn't. The way I see it this whole post can be summed up in one sentence.
LSU will give AR a
**All stats provided from cfbstats.com
Arkansas' opponents and offensive and defensive rankings
Missouri St. (FCS) 2-9 (FCS)
New Mexico (Mt West) 1-11 (117/119)
Troy (Sun Belt) 3-7 (88/110)
Alabama 10-1 (20/1)
Texas A&M 6-5 (10/76)
Auburn 7-4 (78/81)
Ole Piss 2-9 (114/94)
Vanderbilt 5-6 (69/20)
South Carolina 9-2 (47/5)
Tennessee 5-6 (101/35)
Miss State 5-6 (82/51)
Combined Opponents' Record: 55-66 Avg Rank (72/59)
LSU's Schedule:
Oregon 9-2 (3/69)
North State 5-6 (FCS)
Miss State 5-6 (82/51)
West Virginia 7-3 (16/26)
Kentucky 4-7 (117/63)
Florida 6-5 (62/18)
Tennessee 5-6 (101/35)
Auburn 7-4 (78/81)
Alabama 10-1 (to LSU) (1/20)
Western KY (Sun Belt) 6-5 (103/54)
Ole Piss 2-9 (114/94)
Combined Record: 66-54 Avg Ranking: (67/49)
LSU points scored: 417 37.9 ppg Allowed: 247.9 10 ppg
AK points scored: 432 39.3 ppg Allowed: 360.3 21.1 ppg
Tougher schedule, better competition both the offenses are even in stats, LSU's D is considerably better and we beat the one team you couldn't. The way I see it this whole post can be summed up in one sentence.
LSU will give AR a
**All stats provided from cfbstats.com
Posted on 11/22/11 at 9:39 am to Ice Cold
quote:Did you have someone in mind?
Did you bill for this?
If you give me a minute, I'm sure I could whip something out.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 9:43 am to just me
I posted something similar yesterday. Was surprised the consistency that LSU plays both at home and on the road/neutral sites especially considering where we played Oregon, WVU and Bama.
Offense Points Per Game:
Arkansas Home - 45
LSU Home - 42
Arkansas Road/Neutral - 29
LSU Road/Neutral - 34
Defense Points Per Game:
Arkansas Home - 15
LSU Home - 8
Arkansas Road/Neutral - 32
LSU Road/Neutral - 12
Common Opponents Points Per Game:
Arkansas Offense - 35
LSU Offense - 33
Arkansas Defense - 20
LSU - 6
Both teams get pretty similar results but I think it will come down to if the Arkansas defense can break trends and come up with a big game on the road.
Offense Points Per Game:
Arkansas Home - 45
LSU Home - 42
Arkansas Road/Neutral - 29
LSU Road/Neutral - 34
Defense Points Per Game:
Arkansas Home - 15
LSU Home - 8
Arkansas Road/Neutral - 32
LSU Road/Neutral - 12
Common Opponents Points Per Game:
Arkansas Offense - 35
LSU Offense - 33
Arkansas Defense - 20
LSU - 6
Both teams get pretty similar results but I think it will come down to if the Arkansas defense can break trends and come up with a big game on the road.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 10:21 am to just me
quote:SFP says confirmation bias
Sometimes you know something in your gut, but you haven't seen the numbers to confirm your suspicions.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 10:28 am to just me
It would be interesting to see how many TDs were scored by each team on special team and defense. I think those TDs will prop up our offense more than it should. I do think the defensive stats are significant.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 10:31 am to just me
polemical and analytical... 
Posted on 11/22/11 at 10:49 am to just me
Arky offense will not be on the field much, this could really help us out.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 10:54 am to AlxTgr
quote:He would be wrong in this instance if he called that confirmation bias.
SFP says confirmation bias
Posted on 11/22/11 at 11:00 am to Tiger_n_ATL
I'm gonna tell you what alot of Arkie fans are gonna hang their hat on. Alabama (while whipping us well) only scored 17 points on offense. The others were a pick-6 and 2 special teams TD's. Excuse?...yes, 'cause that' how you win. But that is giving Arkansas some confidence. If, as I've said before, our lines can play like they have the last three weeks (or probably need to play better), do not go to sleep on Arkansas. All we need to do is run for 2.5-3 yds a play and hold our pass blocks for 2.5-3 seconds and we'll be OK on offense. Now, on defense, uh, we gotta play lights out.....i.e. Florida a couple of years ago. We can certainly do it, but with our preparation time kinda cut back because of the tragedy that happened Sunday, we're just gonna have to butch up and see what we can do.
One good thing being talked about in Arkansas is it's LSU's game to lose and not Arkansas' game to win. Miles is always good in these games / and Petrino has had LSU's number for the past few years. I'm hoping for the game of the decade (Hogs win, of course).
One good thing being talked about in Arkansas is it's LSU's game to lose and not Arkansas' game to win. Miles is always good in these games / and Petrino has had LSU's number for the past few years. I'm hoping for the game of the decade (Hogs win, of course).
Posted on 11/22/11 at 11:26 am to Trashy Hog
So their scoring ability on away games sucks. Its +1 for LSU 
Posted on 11/22/11 at 11:36 am to Ice Cold
quote:
Did you bill for this?
Posted on 11/22/11 at 11:48 am to Chicken
quote:
polemical and analytical...
Up-voted for usage of polemical to describe the argument
Posted on 11/22/11 at 12:08 pm to just me
you must be an accountant
Posted on 11/22/11 at 12:13 pm to TwinkleToez
quote:
you must be an accountant
Nope, probably just stayed at a Holiday Inn
Posted on 11/22/11 at 12:35 pm to CalTiger
quote:
polemical and analytical...
Up-voted for usage of polemical to describe the argument
Dammit you just made me break out the dictionary!
Thank you sir for conditioning my mind.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 12:35 pm to TwinkleToez
All of these stats are nice, but the reason they are just stats and are not conclusive, is that they do not take into account the specific match ups and circumstances.
For example: with the return of certain players recently, how much adjustment should be made to earlier stat for the pigs to reflect the current strength of the team? Also, it's very difficult to account for the flexible nature of a game plan based on the strengths of each team. LSU's offensive game plan at bama was conservative, and could afford to be so, because bama was doing the same thing (both to protect against having the opposing defense make a big play.) Bama did not have to worry about that when they played the pigs because of the weaker defense they faced, and the same will be true for LSU against the pigs.
There are too many individual match ups and circumstances to let stats really tell you much when two teams are vastly different like these two are.
I'm looking at the pigs and seeing that they have gotten it done all year but once, but they sure have played with fire, and if they do that Friday they will get smoked and torched. LSU, on the other hand, has taken care of business all year long in a very crisp manner, and nothing seems to affect them at all. The outcome of every game has been dictated fully by the Tigers, and I see no reason to not expect more of the same Friday.
To put it another way, as I've seen elsewhere lately (or close to it) nobody else in CFB controls their destiny - the Tigers control it all!
For example: with the return of certain players recently, how much adjustment should be made to earlier stat for the pigs to reflect the current strength of the team? Also, it's very difficult to account for the flexible nature of a game plan based on the strengths of each team. LSU's offensive game plan at bama was conservative, and could afford to be so, because bama was doing the same thing (both to protect against having the opposing defense make a big play.) Bama did not have to worry about that when they played the pigs because of the weaker defense they faced, and the same will be true for LSU against the pigs.
There are too many individual match ups and circumstances to let stats really tell you much when two teams are vastly different like these two are.
I'm looking at the pigs and seeing that they have gotten it done all year but once, but they sure have played with fire, and if they do that Friday they will get smoked and torched. LSU, on the other hand, has taken care of business all year long in a very crisp manner, and nothing seems to affect them at all. The outcome of every game has been dictated fully by the Tigers, and I see no reason to not expect more of the same Friday.
To put it another way, as I've seen elsewhere lately (or close to it) nobody else in CFB controls their destiny - the Tigers control it all!
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