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Message
re: Bracketology 03/09: LSU a 10 seed
Posted on 3/9/15 at 10:02 am to Pilot Tiger
Posted on 3/9/15 at 10:02 am to Pilot Tiger
quote:
Beating WVU and Arky on the road will get us in over any other bubble teams imo
And it is, right now
The key terminology here is right now. Right now we are fine, if we lose to aTm we are simply at the mercy of how many bubble busters happen. If it's just a couple, we should be fine, if it's like 4 or 5, we're more than likely OUT. It's all about how many teams steal bids in the scenario we lose to aTm for a third time.
This post was edited on 3/9/15 at 10:03 am
2
Posted on 3/9/15 at 10:04 am to Pilot Tiger
quote:
Beating WVU and Arky on the road will get us in over any other bubble teams imo
Thank you. Go look at the other teams we would be in contention with. Put their pros/cons in a list, and you'll start to see LSU really separate. 8-3 on the road, 5 wins vs Top 50, 13 wins vs Top 100
Posted on 3/9/15 at 10:06 am to nicholastiger
quote:
If LSU doesn't get in, then Alleva on the committee is useless.
Alleva cannot be a part of any discussions about LSU. In fact, he has to leave the room when LSU is discussed. For the integrity of the selection process, I would hope that he has ZERO influence when it comes to LSU.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 10:10 am to thunderbird1100
I said all along we needed 12 sec wins to be a lock. We probably still make it either way, but if we didn't beat arky, we were toast.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 10:15 am to Alt26
I immediately just thought of Ron Polk (or State's AD) getting MSU in the baseball tournament over LSU in 2005 
Posted on 3/9/15 at 10:15 am to thunderbird1100
Even if we lose to AM a 3rd time that isn't considered a bad loss. So that won't go against us on our resume. Basically we have 8-10 spots to play with and our wins are much better than any one else on the bubble. Say 4 bracket busters win their tourney and still a bid...we are still safe. Then after that the teams behind us won't jump us by just a game or two won in their conf tourney because they will also be playing teams with avg rpis like LSU will in its game and it will take 4 of those teams pulling off major upsets to get an rpi boost this late...and teams that have to play first round games are going to be playing bad teams that may actual doa slight drop to their rpi.
I guess if all hell breaks loose and LSU gets blown out we could drop to about 50/50...but it will take alot of bad shite to happen outside of just our game.
I guess if all hell breaks loose and LSU gets blown out we could drop to about 50/50...but it will take alot of bad shite to happen outside of just our game.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 10:17 am to dgnx6
quote:
I said all along we needed 12 sec wins to be a lock.
Alleva said 11 wins this year gets us in. He's involved with the committee, and that's the info he's taken from the talks.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 10:18 am to lsufan112001
quote:
They need to win a tourney game to keep their spot. If they lose they won't make it in.
I'd rather have them playing weak teams with no tourney byes, so they could pad the WL record.
The committee won't care they are an "x" seed.
WRONG!
LSU playing and beating weak teams in the SECT would do absolutely nothing for their "resume". All it would do is give LSU an opportunity to pick up one final "bad" loss. Who you play and who you beat is much, much, more important than racking up a bunch of wins against bad teams.
The committee doesn't care that LSU is a 4 seed in the SECT, nor that they have a double-bye. A potential A&M game is a great thing for LSU win or lose.
If LSU loses all it shows is something everyone already (the committee included) knew, that A&M is a bad matchup for LSU.
If A&M wins then all it show is something everyone (the committee included) already knew, that A&M can beat LSU. In fact, the ONLY notable thing on A&M's resume are their wins over LSU.
This game is a great opportunity for LSU not A&M. LSU could notch one more good win and give them wins over every team in the top half of the SEC except UK. No one else (but UK) could say that. A&M on the other hand needs to show the committee that they can beat other good teams besides LSU
Posted on 3/9/15 at 10:20 am to dgnx6
quote:
but if we didn't beat arky, we were toast.
during bracket buster games they have live update graphics from Joe and his bracket as games go on (and alot of people say its 1 man but its 1 man who has basically nailed every bracket last few years...it's some crazy number he has correct)
it showed us as a last 4 bye while in game and with a loss he still had us as a last 4 bye..so a loss wouldn't have even put us on the bubble just knocked us lower on the last 4.)
single games aren't as big right now when playing high rpi teams in terms of a loss...and it even isn't huge for a big boost on a win...it can lock you in like I think it did us...but its hard to make any sig. movement right now and thats why even with the win we are about where we were before.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 10:20 am to Alt26
quote:
All it would do is give LSU an opportunity to pick up one final "bad" loss
The only way LSU has a "bad loss" is if Rick Ray's crew pulls the unthinkable and makes the SEC semis. A&M is desperate so I just don't see that happening
Posted on 3/9/15 at 10:24 am to The Truth 34
Records against:
LSU (RPI 50):
1-25: 2-1
26-50: 1-1
51-100: 9-3
101-200: 5-2
200+: 5-2
Ole Miss (RPI 51):
1-25: 1-2
26-50: 2-5
51-100: 5-1
101-200: 5-3
200+: 7-0
TAMU (RPI 55):
1-25: 0-3
26-50: 2-2
51-100: 5-5
101-200: 5-0
200+: 8-0
UCLA (RPI 52):
1-25: 1-6
26-50: 1-1
51-100: 2-2
101-200: 9-3
200+: 6-0
OK St (RPI 46):
1-25: 3-8
26-50: 3-0
51-100: 2-2
101-200: 4-2
200+: 5-0
Tulsa (RPI 47):
1-25: 0-4
26-50: 2-2
51-100: 3-1
101-200: 4-1
200+: 12-0
None of these teams (who are all right in our RPI range) have even 10 wins against the Top 100. We have 12.
LSU (RPI 50):
1-25: 2-1
26-50: 1-1
51-100: 9-3
101-200: 5-2
200+: 5-2
Ole Miss (RPI 51):
1-25: 1-2
26-50: 2-5
51-100: 5-1
101-200: 5-3
200+: 7-0
TAMU (RPI 55):
1-25: 0-3
26-50: 2-2
51-100: 5-5
101-200: 5-0
200+: 8-0
UCLA (RPI 52):
1-25: 1-6
26-50: 1-1
51-100: 2-2
101-200: 9-3
200+: 6-0
OK St (RPI 46):
1-25: 3-8
26-50: 3-0
51-100: 2-2
101-200: 4-2
200+: 5-0
Tulsa (RPI 47):
1-25: 0-4
26-50: 2-2
51-100: 3-1
101-200: 4-1
200+: 12-0
None of these teams (who are all right in our RPI range) have even 10 wins against the Top 100. We have 12.
This post was edited on 3/9/15 at 10:30 am
Posted on 3/9/15 at 10:28 am to fightingtiger2335
quote:
during bracket buster games they have live update graphics from Joe and his bracket as games go on (and alot of people say its 1 man but its 1 man who has basically nailed every bracket last few years...it's some crazy number he has correct)
it showed us as a last 4 bye while in game and with a loss he still had us as a last 4 bye..so a loss wouldn't have even put us on the bubble just knocked us lower on the last 4.)
single games aren't as big right now when playing high rpi teams in terms of a loss...and it even isn't huge for a big boost on a win...it can lock you in like I think it did us...but its hard to make any sig. movement right now and thats why even with the win we are about where we were before.
I think the worst case scenario is we are in a play-in game.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 10:51 am to tigerbait2010
I'd love to have a chance to knock aTm out of the NCAAT. And finally get a win against those Aggies.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 11:00 am to thunderbird1100
We are in I'm not even sweating that anymore. I was ereally concerned we'd get left out after Tennessee but I can't see us not making it now.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 11:04 am to fightingtiger2335
quote:
Even if we lose to AM a 3rd time that isn't considered a bad loss. So that won't go against us on our resume
It will most definitely affect us if enough bracket busters happen, we will go to the play in game. Other teams will improve their stock (you're really not taking this into account), most specifically aTm winning 2 in a row being just SLIGHTLY behind us right now.
This post was edited on 3/9/15 at 11:05 am
Posted on 3/9/15 at 11:05 am to nicholastiger
quote:
Even with 2 A&M wins LSU resume is still a lot better. If you use head to head fine but than LSU trumps Ole Miss too
A Loss to A&M is a little scary, especially if A&M goes on to do the unthinkable and knock of UK. Then you have a hot A&M team and in that scenario, Ole Miss or LSU could possibly be on the outside looking in, especially considering A&M would then have 3 wins against us.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 11:06 am to Pelican fan99
Beating Arkansas is actually better than beating Tenn
With the way A&M is playing down the stretch, would not be shocked to see Auburn again
With the way A&M is playing down the stretch, would not be shocked to see Auburn again
Posted on 3/9/15 at 11:06 am to SouthOfSouth
We are in currently, but by a slim margin. For people to think we are absolute locks is a bit crazy.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 11:06 am to thunderbird1100
I accounted for teams padding their resumes but they would all have to advance to atleast semis and get a huge rpi win to jump us. Teams getting a win against a bad team wont get us jumped.
Its gonna take a lot to go wrong
Its gonna take a lot to go wrong
Posted on 3/9/15 at 11:11 am to fightingtiger2335
quote:
Its gonna take a lot to go wrong
Probably not as much as you think, like I said, lose to aTm, watch 4-5 bubble busters happen, we're out. the good news for us is this might be the weakest year in a long time for bubble busters. There might be only 1 or 2 total. The big conference tournaments will be the ones to watch though. Specifically the P12, ACC, B10...need to watch for teams like UCLA, Illinois and Miami.
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