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Started By
Message
re: Betting line continues to move (Update)
Posted on 9/4/19 at 12:45 pm to KC Tiger
Posted on 9/4/19 at 12:45 pm to KC Tiger
quote:
Something has to be the impetus for money to flow one direction and cause the line to move. If you will look at my original post you will see that my conclusion, like your most recent one, was that people saw both teams and, using the eye test, started betting on LSU (my further point was it likely had nothing to do with injuries).
The problem with your original post (and the first sentence of this post) was that you made the false assumption that the line automatically moves in the same direction that the money is coming in. There are plenty of instances of the line staying the same or moving in the opposite direction of the money. That is why it is worded incorrectly and caused confusion:
quote:
There are guys on Texas' roster that are nicked-up, but no major injuries that would cause a line to move that much in such a short period of time.
1
Posted on 9/4/19 at 1:08 pm to KC Tiger
The preseason line doesn’t really matter much because the market hadn’t matured yet. Limits were only a couple hundred dollars and they were mostly just openers on BetOnline and Bovada. Any guy with a couple hundred bucks could move the line.
Now that the game is 4 days away, CRIS and Pinnacle are beginning to up their limits, and actual sharp money is pushing the line higher (-6 now). Remember, all these books such as Bovada and BetOnline just move their lines on air with CRIS because they won’t to shade the sharper side which CRIS does well.
But line is moving in our favor even as the market continues to mature. Which is a good thing ultimately. We’ll see where it ends up Saturday morning when limits hit their peak.
Now that the game is 4 days away, CRIS and Pinnacle are beginning to up their limits, and actual sharp money is pushing the line higher (-6 now). Remember, all these books such as Bovada and BetOnline just move their lines on air with CRIS because they won’t to shade the sharper side which CRIS does well.
But line is moving in our favor even as the market continues to mature. Which is a good thing ultimately. We’ll see where it ends up Saturday morning when limits hit their peak.
Posted on 9/4/19 at 1:10 pm to lapistola
quote:
The problem with your original post (and the first sentence of this post) was that you made the false assumption that the line automatically moves in the same direction that the money is coming in. There are plenty of instances of the line staying the same or moving in the opposite direction of the money. That is why it is worded incorrectly and caused confusion:
There is nothing about your statement that is true. Please tell me this was your attempt at humor.
There is never a scenario where money comes in heavy on the favorite and yet the line goes down. If money comes in heavy on the favorite the line increases.
If money comes in heavy on the dog the line decreases. It never works the other way. Never.
There are two things that will make the line move (a heavy flow of money in one direction OR an external or unexpected factor. Examples would be injuries to a key player, suspensions, weather, unexpected change of venue, etc.).
None of these external/unexpected forces are at play here. Consequently it is likely a heavy flow of money influencing the line. My hypothesis, as stated in my original post, is that the 'eye test' from Saturday influenced the money.
This post was edited on 9/4/19 at 1:16 pm
Posted on 9/4/19 at 1:10 pm to Prominentwon
quote:
Eight new starters on defense
One scholarship RB vs this defense.
I can understand why
All this was known before.
Posted on 9/4/19 at 1:11 pm to Penrod
It all has to do with LSU not looking like LSU normally looks against a mid-major team in the first game.
We actually looked competent and explosive on offense to along with our usually great defense.
People took notice.
We actually looked competent and explosive on offense to along with our usually great defense.
People took notice.
Posted on 9/4/19 at 1:18 pm to Monkey business
quote:Betus offers 25% more bonus for using bitcoin
Do you use bitcoin on bovado or do you use cash/check
I keep hearing bitcoin method is better
Posted on 9/4/19 at 4:27 pm to cheeser
Minus 6.5.
Wow.
Wow.
Posted on 9/5/19 at 11:30 am to KC Tiger
I don't think the line is finished moving.
Posted on 9/5/19 at 11:31 am to JudgeHolden
quote:
Minus 6.5.
Wow.
Nuts. Vegas likes us.
Posted on 9/5/19 at 12:02 pm to KC Tiger
quote:
There is never a scenario where money comes in heavy on the favorite and yet the line goes down. If money comes in heavy on the favorite the line increases.
If money comes in heavy on the dog the line decreases. It never works the other way. Never.
I respectfully disagree. There are reverse line movements all time in sports betting. Take this game for instance: 95% of money line bets are on Texas. Why would Vegas continue to move the line in the opposite direction, increasing the odds on such bets, when all the money appears to be on Texas?
Sports books are no different than casinos, they're in it to make money and not just from the juice. I've been burned too many times to be convinced otherwise
Posted on 9/5/19 at 12:04 pm to Vaquero
quote:
There are reverse line movements all time in sports betting
Nope
Posted on 9/5/19 at 6:32 pm to KC Tiger
quote:
This is why Sports Books do not like having to move the line a lot. Yes, they can equal out the money on both sides, but they leave themselves vulnerable to losing both sides of the bet if the score happens to fall just right.
7 is a key number. They never like to have the line cross a key number.
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