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Message
Basketball: NCAA Tournament prospects
Posted on 1/16/16 at 11:24 am
Posted on 1/16/16 at 11:24 am
quote:
Current teams on Lunardi's bubble Last Four In: Monmouth 12-4 (RPI 32) Notre Dame 11-5 (RPI 46) Texas 10-6 (RPI 29) UCLA 11-7 (RPI 61) First Four Out: Oregon State 11-4 (RPI 27) Seton Hall 12-4 (RPI 56) Wake Forest 10-6 (RPI 54) UT Arlington 13-2 (RPI 58) LSU is 10-6, listed in his "Next 4 Out" grouping.
Look, LSU is in decent shape at the moment.. Beating Kentucky nullifies the College of Charleston loss, IMO.
Marquette is 12-5 and took a loss to #6 Villanova last night. They are a good team and will definitley be in the tournament. "Quality loss"-- No shame in losing that game
NC State is 10-7 and probably wont make the tournament out of the ACC, so they should of won that game, in terms of beating teams they should.
Houston is a good team as well, better than we give them credit for and they are 13-3 in the AAC. They will probably sneak in the tournament despite a weak conference but they probably will finish with 23-25 wins. Should have won to be in better position right now, but again, no shame in losing on the road to this team... Similar to losing to Wichita State before anybody realized they were on their way to being a good Final Four team for a couple of years.
Wake Forest is 10-6 and has struggled a little bit in conference thus far. Wake is a team we will be competing with at the end of the season if it comes down to bubble teams. Currently they are in the last four in field. They have beaten two common opponents in NC State and @ Arkansas. Thus, it is imperative we beat Arkansas tomm. Obviously, not a bad loss but losing at home to a team that you likely will be competing with to secure entry in the at large field is a bit of a bummer. Needed to win this one. This loss is why we are in the "next" four out and Wake is in the "last" four out. That simple.
Florida is 10-6 with a RPI around 25. No bad losses as all the teams they have lost to thus far,will likely make the tournament. Florida is a tournament team and will probably get a 7-9 seed as it currently stands. We need to beat them at home to get a top 30 RPI win and help our cause. But, losing close to them on the road is a "quality" loss, so to speak. Need to win at home and return the favor and need to do so to prove we are tournament worthy.
With that, Charleston, NC State and maybe Houston are the games anyone should truly be disappointed with and I think we will soon see that Houston is a very good team who will have a chance to advance in the tournament.
We are ok, 1 bad loss and about 4 games (NC State, Houston, Florida, Wake) we should have won to not be having this thread, but it is what it is. I think the committee will show deference for the early season losses due to Victor and Hornsby not being there.
Moving forward, need to win all or most of the home games (9-0,8-1,7-2), have a winning record on the road (5-4,6-3 or better) in conference and win majority of the big games left (A&M, Oklahoma, Florida, Kentucky (3-2, or better)).
If we do the above-mentioned, we WILL be in the tournament. Take care of business at home, win more than lose on the road and break even or better against the remaining "big" games.
All we need to do is get in and see what happens. This team easily has Sweet 16, Great 8 talent and potential, just need to be more consistent, which they have been as of late..... GEAUX TIGERS!!!!
Current teams on Lunardi's bubble Last Four In: Monmouth 12-4 (RPI 32) Notre Dame 11-5 (RPI 46) Texas 10-6 (RPI 29) UCLA 11-7 (RPI 61) First Four Out: Oregon State 11-4 (RPI 27) Seton Hall 12-4 (RPI 56) Wake Forest 10-6 (RPI 54) UT Arlington 13-2 (RPI 58) LSU is 10-6, listed in his "Next 4 Out" grouping.
Look, LSU is in decent shape at the moment.. Beating Kentucky nullifies the College of Charleston loss, IMO.
Marquette is 12-5 and took a loss to #6 Villanova last night. They are a good team and will definitley be in the tournament. "Quality loss"-- No shame in losing that game
NC State is 10-7 and probably wont make the tournament out of the ACC, so they should of won that game, in terms of beating teams they should.
Houston is a good team as well, better than we give them credit for and they are 13-3 in the AAC. They will probably sneak in the tournament despite a weak conference but they probably will finish with 23-25 wins. Should have won to be in better position right now, but again, no shame in losing on the road to this team... Similar to losing to Wichita State before anybody realized they were on their way to being a good Final Four team for a couple of years.
Wake Forest is 10-6 and has struggled a little bit in conference thus far. Wake is a team we will be competing with at the end of the season if it comes down to bubble teams. Currently they are in the last four in field. They have beaten two common opponents in NC State and @ Arkansas. Thus, it is imperative we beat Arkansas tomm. Obviously, not a bad loss but losing at home to a team that you likely will be competing with to secure entry in the at large field is a bit of a bummer. Needed to win this one. This loss is why we are in the "next" four out and Wake is in the "last" four out. That simple.
Florida is 10-6 with a RPI around 25. No bad losses as all the teams they have lost to thus far,will likely make the tournament. Florida is a tournament team and will probably get a 7-9 seed as it currently stands. We need to beat them at home to get a top 30 RPI win and help our cause. But, losing close to them on the road is a "quality" loss, so to speak. Need to win at home and return the favor and need to do so to prove we are tournament worthy.
With that, Charleston, NC State and maybe Houston are the games anyone should truly be disappointed with and I think we will soon see that Houston is a very good team who will have a chance to advance in the tournament.
We are ok, 1 bad loss and about 4 games (NC State, Houston, Florida, Wake) we should have won to not be having this thread, but it is what it is. I think the committee will show deference for the early season losses due to Victor and Hornsby not being there.
Moving forward, need to win all or most of the home games (9-0,8-1,7-2), have a winning record on the road (5-4,6-3 or better) in conference and win majority of the big games left (A&M, Oklahoma, Florida, Kentucky (3-2, or better)).
If we do the above-mentioned, we WILL be in the tournament. Take care of business at home, win more than lose on the road and break even or better against the remaining "big" games.
All we need to do is get in and see what happens. This team easily has Sweet 16, Great 8 talent and potential, just need to be more consistent, which they have been as of late..... GEAUX TIGERS!!!!
This post was edited on 1/16/16 at 11:26 am
4
Posted on 1/16/16 at 11:33 am to irvchilichill1
Top 50 wins matter more than bad losses.
Yes, NC State, Charleston, and Houston might be considered "bad losses" at the end of the season. But if we go 6-3 against top 50 teams, that will carry more weight.
Yes, NC State, Charleston, and Houston might be considered "bad losses" at the end of the season. But if we go 6-3 against top 50 teams, that will carry more weight.
Posted on 1/16/16 at 11:34 am to irvchilichill1
I'm totally confident in our team right now. Each game makes me nervous, but we've been finding ways to win lately. I believe we're 6-2 or 7-2 since Hornsby and Victor have both been back.
Also, people who worry about RPI need not to. It will get sorted out soon enough. Teams like Monmouth who play St Peters twice will fall below us when we play teams like A&m twice, UK again, USCe, etc etc.
Also, people who worry about RPI need not to. It will get sorted out soon enough. Teams like Monmouth who play St Peters twice will fall below us when we play teams like A&m twice, UK again, USCe, etc etc.
Posted on 1/16/16 at 11:44 am to LSUButt
1. We need to avoid any more BAD LOSSES.
Potential bad losses
Arkansas
@Arkansas (maybe not if Arkie keeps winning)
@Auburn
Miss State
Mizzou
2. We need a couple of good wins
Potential good wins
@Texass A&M
Texass A&M
@Kentucky
Oklahoma
3. The more decent wins we can get the better
Potential decent wins
@alabama
@Carolina
@Tennessee
4. We need to win our home games especially versus Arkansas, State, Georgia, Florida, alabama, and Mizzou
Potential bad losses
Arkansas
@Arkansas (maybe not if Arkie keeps winning)
@Auburn
Miss State
Mizzou
2. We need a couple of good wins
Potential good wins
@Texass A&M
Texass A&M
@Kentucky
Oklahoma
3. The more decent wins we can get the better
Potential decent wins
@alabama
@Carolina
@Tennessee
4. We need to win our home games especially versus Arkansas, State, Georgia, Florida, alabama, and Mizzou
Posted on 1/16/16 at 11:52 am to GeorgeWest
Houston will not be considered a bad loss... They might get a 7 on down seed if they win out pretty much. They are legit and the type of team that gets to the 2nd weekend unexpectedly, to those who havent seen them, but once u do your like oh ok theyre solid.
Posted on 1/16/16 at 11:54 am to irvchilichill1
quote:
They might get a 7 on down seed if they win out pretty much.
Why on earth would you expect Houston to win out?
quote:
They are legit and the type of team that gets to the 2nd weekend unexpectedly, to those who havent seen them, but once u do your like oh ok theyre solid.
Houston isn't making the NCAA Tournament.
Posted on 1/16/16 at 12:04 pm to BayouBengals03
I don't think they end up making the tourney either but they are 13-3 so they aren't complete garbage, I think people are over exaggerating our losses right now. Last year we had bad losses, like awful losses. NC state is our worse lost this year and they aren't nearly as bad a Mizzou was last year.
Posted on 1/16/16 at 12:06 pm to BayouBengals03
FYI, NC State is tied with UNC @UNC at half right now.
Houston will NOT win out, and if they did, they would be like a 3-4 seed because they will have beat SMU twice, Uconn twice, and Memphis. But they do have a legit shot to win the AAC because SMU is ineligible for postseason. Which begs the question, if SMU wins the AAC Championship game, is the runner-up automatically in the tourney?
Houston will NOT win out, and if they did, they would be like a 3-4 seed because they will have beat SMU twice, Uconn twice, and Memphis. But they do have a legit shot to win the AAC because SMU is ineligible for postseason. Which begs the question, if SMU wins the AAC Championship game, is the runner-up automatically in the tourney?
Posted on 1/16/16 at 12:06 pm to Pnels08
I've been a defender of the Houston loss on here. It's not really a bad loss, as of now. They have a pretty decent team.
But they're gonna lose 5-6 more games in their league. That won't be nearly enough to get them in the dance. They played a weak OOC schedule.
But they're gonna lose 5-6 more games in their league. That won't be nearly enough to get them in the dance. They played a weak OOC schedule.
Posted on 1/16/16 at 12:06 pm to Pnels08
Well...Charleston is the worst loss. RPI may not say so currently, but that is the case
Posted on 1/16/16 at 12:07 pm to LSUButt
quote:
Which begs the question, if SMU wins the AAC Championship game, is the runner-up automatically in the tourney?
SMU is ineligible for the AAC tourney, I'm sure.
Posted on 1/16/16 at 12:07 pm to Pnels08
The committee factors who you have so we will get the benefit of the doubt for not having Craig and Hornsby. Plus the field is very weak this year, won't take much to get in.9
Posted on 1/16/16 at 12:08 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:
SMU is ineligible for the AAC tourney, I'm sure.
I guess that makes sense.
I also want to point out that I'm still pissed we scheduled Charleston at Charleston. That was so...so dumb.
Posted on 1/16/16 at 12:10 pm to barry
If LSU goes 13-5 in conference, they'll get like a 10 seed.
If they do that and beat Oklahoma, they'll be an 8-9 seed.
if they do all of that and win the SEC tournament tournament, they'll be a 6-7 seed.
If they do that and beat Oklahoma, they'll be an 8-9 seed.
if they do all of that and win the SEC tournament tournament, they'll be a 6-7 seed.
This post was edited on 1/16/16 at 12:12 pm
Posted on 1/16/16 at 12:11 pm to LSUButt
The only reason a team that is ineligible for the NCAA tournament would get to play in the conference tournament would be if it was a situation like the SWAC had last season.
ETA: It's just not in the best interest of the conference
ETA: It's just not in the best interest of the conference
This post was edited on 1/16/16 at 12:16 pm
Posted on 1/16/16 at 12:12 pm to irvchilichill1
The biggest thing working in our favor is Ben Simmons. I think that if we can get anywhere inside of the bubble, the committee will pick us just so they can showcase him.
Posted on 1/16/16 at 12:15 pm to irvchilichill1
Just wish we would stop playing so many teams, early in a season, that are considered mid major or less, like the Charelston's or Gulf Coast of the world.
Losing to those teams, even if theyre somewhat decent, causes us and power 5 schools to be on the bubble despite good conference records and a few quality wins.
I rather lose to a mid to lower power 5 conference team or even a highly ranked team because the loss is not so damaging when it comes to RPI and if its a close loss to a Top 10 type school, Id imagine committee members who might have watched the game will keep that in mind when it comes to equal teams on the bubble.
Need to start scheduling a few more early season big games to prepare for the tournament and to show our players where we need to go to compete with the nation.
Going 9-0 or losing 1 or 2 games before conference play but not playing anybody causes teams to get an overinflated confidence about themselves and\or doesnt mean squat when u end up .500 or a little better, in conference play, but fail to make the tourney because a team you beat gets the spot due to them playing more quality teams and winning 1 or 2 of them.
The reward of winning a quality out of conference big win is always outweighed versus losing to fledgling mid majors that sneak a win on us.
If we would of played say a Duke, Louisville, or West Virginia, like we did in recent past, and won, we would be in the projected field today instead of out because we lost to Charleston or GC....
The way I see it, Cant be scared to play those games because of the potential loss because you still have the potential to lose to any other team too, especially if they have decent talent but considered an inferior school.
Losing to those teams, even if theyre somewhat decent, causes us and power 5 schools to be on the bubble despite good conference records and a few quality wins.
I rather lose to a mid to lower power 5 conference team or even a highly ranked team because the loss is not so damaging when it comes to RPI and if its a close loss to a Top 10 type school, Id imagine committee members who might have watched the game will keep that in mind when it comes to equal teams on the bubble.
Need to start scheduling a few more early season big games to prepare for the tournament and to show our players where we need to go to compete with the nation.
Going 9-0 or losing 1 or 2 games before conference play but not playing anybody causes teams to get an overinflated confidence about themselves and\or doesnt mean squat when u end up .500 or a little better, in conference play, but fail to make the tourney because a team you beat gets the spot due to them playing more quality teams and winning 1 or 2 of them.
The reward of winning a quality out of conference big win is always outweighed versus losing to fledgling mid majors that sneak a win on us.
If we would of played say a Duke, Louisville, or West Virginia, like we did in recent past, and won, we would be in the projected field today instead of out because we lost to Charleston or GC....
The way I see it, Cant be scared to play those games because of the potential loss because you still have the potential to lose to any other team too, especially if they have decent talent but considered an inferior school.
This post was edited on 1/16/16 at 12:20 pm
Posted on 1/16/16 at 12:18 pm to LSUButt
Yea I was going by rpi,
I think 13-5 plus a win over OU can get you a 6 seed. Then a good sec tourney could move you up. We would be like 20-7 with our full roster. We had to start elberto and Sampson to start the season and I think they'll be weighted heavily
I think 13-5 plus a win over OU can get you a 6 seed. Then a good sec tourney could move you up. We would be like 20-7 with our full roster. We had to start elberto and Sampson to start the season and I think they'll be weighted heavily
Posted on 1/16/16 at 12:22 pm to Pnels08
quote:
I think 13-5 plus a win over OU can get you a 6 seed.
Eh that's too high.
I know they'll account for games we played without our full roster, but that still puts us at 20-10. And we only lost 3 games without Victor and Hornsby.
Posted on 1/16/16 at 12:24 pm to BayouBengals03
We will see, hopefully the team just keeps playing good ball and we get in a spot to do damage.
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