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Message
The most important aspect of recruiting is talent evaluation.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:21 pm
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:21 pm
I know there is a feeling about star value. While this is a simplistic approach, it can be effective by accumulating volume. Therefore, if you get five, five stars a year, you can offset the bust with the boom/ones that hit.
There is no question there have been many five star busts. I can go all the way back to chris pettaway, to as recent as sopher or emery/ryan.
The key to building a championship team isn’t the five stars. It’s the evaluation of those that play above their rating.
Now, it’s easier said than done. However, it’s the ability to identify guys like Cushenberry, Damien Lewis, ceh, Jefferson, moss, queen, etc. even burrow played well above his ranking.
You will have recruiting stars that play to their level like chase and Marshall. How what makes the championship team are those that play above their rating. Every championship team has it. Stetson Bennett at UGA is an example.
It’s not just finding the three stars like Mason Taylor, it’s also finding the stud like chase that will play like a stud and avoid the five star bust like sopher.
So, while you are disappointed with our replacement db, keep in mind. Let’s see how all this plays out.
I don’t think Washington has had top five classes. Michigan usually recruits at a top 10 level but not a top five level. The most consistent nfl programs are those that hit on their drafted players.
So, instead of focusing on stars. Pay attention to who we recruit that play above their ranking. That’s the key to our program.
There is no question there have been many five star busts. I can go all the way back to chris pettaway, to as recent as sopher or emery/ryan.
The key to building a championship team isn’t the five stars. It’s the evaluation of those that play above their rating.
Now, it’s easier said than done. However, it’s the ability to identify guys like Cushenberry, Damien Lewis, ceh, Jefferson, moss, queen, etc. even burrow played well above his ranking.
You will have recruiting stars that play to their level like chase and Marshall. How what makes the championship team are those that play above their rating. Every championship team has it. Stetson Bennett at UGA is an example.
It’s not just finding the three stars like Mason Taylor, it’s also finding the stud like chase that will play like a stud and avoid the five star bust like sopher.
So, while you are disappointed with our replacement db, keep in mind. Let’s see how all this plays out.
I don’t think Washington has had top five classes. Michigan usually recruits at a top 10 level but not a top five level. The most consistent nfl programs are those that hit on their drafted players.
So, instead of focusing on stars. Pay attention to who we recruit that play above their ranking. That’s the key to our program.
9
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:27 pm to dos crystal
quote:
I don’t think Washington has had top five classes. Michigan usually recruits at a top 10 level but not a top five level. The most consistent nfl programs are those that hit on their drafted players.
And they also don’t win championships :-)
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:33 pm to dos crystal
The Star conversation is nuanced. Stars certainly matter. But it’s not all that matters.
Coach evaluations matter. Character and other intangibles matter. Academics matter.
Coach evaluations matter. Character and other intangibles matter. Academics matter.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:34 pm to Old Money
quote:
And they also don’t win championships :-)
They are in line to play for it.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:35 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
Exactly all these people that bitch about stars are the slapdicks that leave in the second quarter.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:37 pm to Old Money
Washington has the same amount of playoff appearances as LSU. Michigan has more.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:39 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
quote:
Washington has the same amount of playoff appearances as LSU. Michigan has more.
So what? Washington has 1 national title in their programs history, and Michigan has won 1 in 50 years.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:41 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
How many championships has that won them?
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:51 pm to dos crystal
It’s been proven over and over. The most talented (highest rated) win. You have to get 4 and 5 stars
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:52 pm to TigerLifer18
quote:
So what? Washington has 1 national title in their programs history, and Michigan has won 1 in 50 years.
The point is. They did a good job at evaluating talent. Talent that is playing above their ranking to compete for n.c. Once you start doing this, it allows you to start recruiting at an even higher level. Even recruiting in top 5, you have to be good at evaluation. See atm.
The post is about importance of talent evaluation in recruiting.
This post was edited on 10/23/23 at 6:56 pm
Posted on 10/23/23 at 7:25 pm to dos crystal
But they don't do a great job at developing it
Posted on 10/23/23 at 7:44 pm to floyd13
quote:
But they don't do a great job at developing it
Wtf are you talking about? We have had two entirely new secondaries in two consecutive years. This group has been with the coaching staff for a total of seven games. It’s not like they have had these guys for three years and they suck.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 8:22 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
quote:
Washington has the same amount of playoff appearances as LSU. Michigan has more.
How many years have they been in the same conference and division as Alabama?
Posted on 10/23/23 at 8:44 pm to HighRoller
quote:
It’s been proven over and over. The most talented (highest rated) win. You have to get 4 and 5 stars
No one is saying different.
There are other factors, though.
Posted on 10/24/23 at 5:46 am to dos crystal
Talent evaluation is a must. But show me a team that has won a championship with 2 and 3 star overachievers. You need 4 and 5 star studs to win championships. If you get one 5 star and he's a bust it will hurt your team. But if you get two 5 stars and 1 is a stud and 1 is a bust it doesn't hurt your team. And that 5 star stud could be the difference maker. Bama doesn't hit on every 5 star the sign. But they have so many that they have a better chance at finding the stud 5 stars.
Posted on 10/24/23 at 6:06 am to uptowntiger84
quote:
But show me a team that has won a championship with 2 and 3 star overachievers.
You’re arguing with yourself. No one is suggesting that at all.
Posted on 10/24/23 at 6:36 am to uptowntiger84
Why is everyone acting like our whole recruiting class is 2 and 3 stars. Our class currently has 16 4 stars and 8 3 stars.
Looking at the top 15 classes according to On3. Georgia, Florida, and Tennessee have 5 3 stars. Ohio State, Oregon, and Texas have 6 3 stars. Alabama and Texas A&M have 7 3 stars. LSU and Notre Dame have 8 3 stars. Florida State has 9 3 stars. Penn State 10 3 stars. Michigan 11 3 stars. Oklahoma 13 3 stars. Miami 14 3 stars.
This was a down year for Louisiana with top end talent. For 2025 we currently have the number 1 Wr, we will get the number 1 running back, and we are in serious contention for the number 1 overall player.
Looking at the top 15 classes according to On3. Georgia, Florida, and Tennessee have 5 3 stars. Ohio State, Oregon, and Texas have 6 3 stars. Alabama and Texas A&M have 7 3 stars. LSU and Notre Dame have 8 3 stars. Florida State has 9 3 stars. Penn State 10 3 stars. Michigan 11 3 stars. Oklahoma 13 3 stars. Miami 14 3 stars.
This was a down year for Louisiana with top end talent. For 2025 we currently have the number 1 Wr, we will get the number 1 running back, and we are in serious contention for the number 1 overall player.
Posted on 10/24/23 at 7:19 am to dos crystal
Of course evaluation is the key. No one argues that. The rankings are a form of evaluation as well. Who determines which evaluation is correct before hindsight applies? Meaning they are opinions, just like the posts you read here and on other message boards. Who determines who is more qualified? Millions of dollars, a job title, etc? They all make mistakes and miss on evaluations. They all get lucky with a surprise here and there as well. It's not a science just educated guesses.
The problem with this class and evaluations is the staff did them and determined a board. That board has a top, middle and bottom. The coaches, who we are being asked to trust, themselves determined others were higher on the board than many of the kids we have committed. Are we supposed to be satisfied with kids our own trusted staff determined to be lesser talents? Fall backs? I think some disappointment is warranted. Doesn't mean doom and gloom as it's described. Just the reality of the situation is below expectations.
The Washington/Michigan evidence begs another question, do we strive to be them, a once in a while contender(our norm) or a perennial one? I assumed 100 mil came with perennial expectations. Miles set our norm, Orgeron massaged a title out of it. Kelly was brought in to take the next step. If that isn't the goal then what was the point?
The problem with this class and evaluations is the staff did them and determined a board. That board has a top, middle and bottom. The coaches, who we are being asked to trust, themselves determined others were higher on the board than many of the kids we have committed. Are we supposed to be satisfied with kids our own trusted staff determined to be lesser talents? Fall backs? I think some disappointment is warranted. Doesn't mean doom and gloom as it's described. Just the reality of the situation is below expectations.
The Washington/Michigan evidence begs another question, do we strive to be them, a once in a while contender(our norm) or a perennial one? I assumed 100 mil came with perennial expectations. Miles set our norm, Orgeron massaged a title out of it. Kelly was brought in to take the next step. If that isn't the goal then what was the point?
Posted on 10/24/23 at 7:48 am to lsufanva
quote:
Kelly was brought in to take the next step.
I’d define “the next step” as having a really strong, consistent program that is in the hunt for national titles. Do you not believe Kelly can do that based on his history and what you’ve seen him do so far here?
Jumping to conclusions two months before signing day in year 2 of a rebuilding job seems a little premature to me but that’s just my opinion of course.
The reality, based on the evidence and body of work, is that Kelly is the best coach we’ve had since Saban and it’s not even close. Kelly is by the most accomplished football coach we’ve hired in a very long time, maybe ever.
Forecasting subpar results because we don’t have a top 5 recruiting class at the moment is irrational.
Is it a disappointment that we’ve missed on some guys? Sure. Does that mean we are screwed? We don’t know that. The “fallbacks” are kids who also hold very good offers from our competitors. It’s not like we just took a kid that only had offers from ull or grambling
I think it’s fair to say yes there’s some disappointment over some misses AND there’s an awful lot of overreacting going on around here when we still have a long way to go until signing day and we don’t know what the portal will bring.
I think “next level” means sustained success at a national level. Kelly has surpassed expectations with how quickly he’s been able to make this program relevant again in the sec and personally I have no doubt he will win at a high level for many years.
The goal is obviously a national title but that also comes with lots of good fortune as we know so who is to say if that happens. All you can reasonably ask is that your coach build a program that gives you a chance to be in the mix. Kelly does that historically and has shown already that he can do so here with nowhere near elite talent so I’m optimistic.
I know most won’t bother reading all that and that’s too bad because it’s an amazing post lol
Posted on 10/24/23 at 8:38 am to dos crystal
quote:
They are in line to play for it.
Good! Each of them have great coaching and they are both about 30 years removed from a natty. I'd hope they would finally get close to winning one again. I don't think we would be too happy with another 30 year drought.
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