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Pretty interesting take on the Crystal Ball
Posted on 12/29/13 at 10:02 pm
Posted on 12/29/13 at 10:02 pm
I wasn't aware how the points added up, looks like there is more to it than just percentage correct. If I had a choice, I think I would rather be right all the time, right?
For those who know Twitter, I just put them in order instead of the reverse order you are used to, hope its not too confusing
quote:
SB Nation Recruiting ?@SBNRecruiting 27m
One thing about the Crystal Ball is that it rewards percentage plays. For instance, I have the #1 slot from April 23 on Laurence Jones 2 LSU
quote:
SB Nation Recruiting ?@SBNRecruiting 26m
Do I give that up for a flip to where I think he'll go (Ole Miss), which would be the 11th person to pick Ole Miss?
quote:
SB Nation Recruiting ?@SBNRecruiting 26m
In this case, probably not, b/c the points gained from being the 11th correct picker are not significant. But if he did go to LSU... huge
quote:
SB Nation Recruiting ?@SBNRecruiting 24m
Travis Rudolph situation is similar. I could dump FSU pick (13th picker, 80 days in advance) for a shot at the #2 Bama picker & big points..
For those who know Twitter, I just put them in order instead of the reverse order you are used to, hope its not too confusing
This post was edited on 12/29/13 at 10:03 pm
6
Posted on 12/29/13 at 10:04 pm to RATeamWannabe
Do they get a big pizza party for winning the whole thing?
Posted on 12/29/13 at 10:06 pm to RATeamWannabe
So the ones at the last minute who make a prediction when its obvious where the player is going doesnt get as many points. Makes sense to me
Posted on 12/29/13 at 10:06 pm to RATeamWannabe
That pretty much shows why the Crystal ball predictions aren't worth much.
Posted on 12/29/13 at 10:07 pm to memphisplaya
Probably more about the publicity you get from the website even if you aren't affiliated with it. Free promotions and such
Posted on 12/29/13 at 10:07 pm to RATeamWannabe
Da fuq did I just read? My head hurts.
Posted on 12/29/13 at 10:08 pm to moneyg
I think they're good to pick out where a player might be trending to.
Posted on 12/29/13 at 10:09 pm to MrWiseGuy
quote:
Da fuq did I just read? My head hurts.
mine too.
Posted on 12/29/13 at 10:10 pm to Ride4Tigers
They should let subscribers participate in CB picks and compete with the "experts," or have a separate Fans CB and Experts CB.
This post was edited on 12/29/13 at 10:11 pm
Posted on 12/29/13 at 10:10 pm to moneyg
quote:Agreed
So the ones at the last minute who make a prediction when its obvious where the player is going doesnt get as many points. Makes sense to me
quote:
That pretty much shows why the Crystal ball predictions aren't worth much.
Depends on how you look at it I guess, casual fans or those not understanding the inner workings probably only care about the percentages, in a few seasons maybe the points thing will add up and make more sense.
Its like recruiting fantasy football, do you play by the total points at the end or the win/loss record?
Posted on 12/29/13 at 10:11 pm to MrWiseGuy
Did it frick you up that its not in traditional twitter format?
There ya go
quote:
SB Nation Recruiting ?@SBNRecruiting 33m
Travis Rudolph situation is similar. I could dump FSU pick (13th picker, 80 days in advance) for a shot at the #2 Bama picker & big points..
Retweeted by Shannon B. Terry
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SB Nation Recruiting ?@SBNRecruiting 35m
In this case, probably not, b/c the points gained from being the 11th correct picker are not significant. But if he did go to LSU... huge
Retweeted by Shannon B. Terry
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SB Nation Recruiting ?@SBNRecruiting 36m
Do I give that up for a flip to where I think he'll go (Ole Miss), which would be the 11th person to pick Ole Miss?
Retweeted by Shannon B. Terry
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More
SB Nation Recruiting ?@SBNRecruiting 37m
One thing about the Crystal Ball is that it rewards percentage plays. For instance, I have the #1 slot from April 23 on Laurence Jones 2 LSU
There ya go
Posted on 12/29/13 at 10:22 pm to RATeamWannabe
It's the new way they do it. It encourages early predictions with no penalty. It's good for not giving the last minute switches points. But you can pick someone early with the hope it sticks and get lots of points. If it's obvious your pick is wrong, just change it. That's why someone like Warren cbs Carter to LSU when he hasn't visited yet.
Posted on 12/29/13 at 10:51 pm to TheWalrus
Carter's over-the-top enthusiasm in his interview after the in-home visit from Haley, iterating LSU put 3 DE's in the league this year: Mingo, Edwards, Montgomery....as well as Carter dissing Saban, Urban Meyer, and talking highly of Miles & Staff in other interviews...putting LSU in top 2 -all seem like reasons a person would cbs Carter at this point before his OV. Mingo and Montgomery did not do their OVs until late Jan and we were confident with them. Warren made a sharp pick.
Posted on 12/29/13 at 11:38 pm to Quid Pro Quo
Meh, I didn't see anything about getting points for finishing 2nd
Posted on 12/30/13 at 4:18 am to RATeamWannabe
I get it. Score isn't solely determined by accuracy. So for the purposes we use it (figuring out where the experts think recruits are going), it's not a very good tool because the experts aren't necessarily aiming for accuracy -- they're aiming for points, so they can be deemed "top predictors" or whatever and get more web traffic.
It kinda makes sense how they weight things, you'd rather be the guy that called Hootie to LSU when no one else did over joining the herd of people jumping on the Ole Miss bandwagon from a publicity and "breaking the news" standpoint. But it doesn't help us with accuracy
It kinda makes sense how they weight things, you'd rather be the guy that called Hootie to LSU when no one else did over joining the herd of people jumping on the Ole Miss bandwagon from a publicity and "breaking the news" standpoint. But it doesn't help us with accuracy
Posted on 12/30/13 at 4:25 am to TheWalrus
It encourages knee jerk reactions to try and be the first guy to predict a school.
Posted on 12/30/13 at 4:38 am to TheWalrus
quote:
It's the new way they do it. It encourages early predictions with no penalty. It's good for not giving the last minute switches points. But you can pick someone early with the hope it sticks and get lots of points. If it's obvious your pick is wrong, just change it. That's why someone like Warren cbs Carter to LSU when he hasn't visited yet.
which kinda just encourages people to take a wild arse guess early on and then pretend they knew it all along when a couple of those longshots turn out. When you're clearly wrong then claim the guy has had a change of heart and the signs now point to __________
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