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If I've done the math correctly, and that's a big IF, best we'll finish this class is 7th
Posted on 7/21/22 at 1:48 pm
Posted on 7/21/22 at 1:48 pm
Feel free to correct me if I am wrong. Just looking through all of the CBs and leanings, assuming everyone goes where they are CB'd, 7th is our ceiling without some major flips or surprises. I would be glad to be wrong and end up higher--I just don't see a path to top 5 with the current options/projections and CBs right now. If Kelly could flip a couple 5-stars that would be epic.
Again, feel free to correct me.
Again, feel free to correct me.
24
Posted on 7/21/22 at 1:49 pm to jbraua
You're going to get major flips and surprises alongside decommits so no point doing it now. Happens every class. This one maybe more so with the spending.
Posted on 7/21/22 at 1:49 pm to jbraua
7th would be fine 
Posted on 7/21/22 at 2:00 pm to jbraua
My prediction based on nothing has been 4-8th
Posted on 7/21/22 at 2:01 pm to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
7th would be fine
CBK's first year? Sure. But I want a top 5 class.
Posted on 7/21/22 at 2:02 pm to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
7th would be fine
7th is "fine" every now and then, but not--statistically speaking--when 3-4 of the 6 teams consistently in front of you are in your own conference.
Posted on 7/21/22 at 2:04 pm to jbraua
This year 5-7 imo with next year and years throughout 3-5. The difference will be roster management and more attention to fitting the culture. With those rankings and that system in place, LSU will be contenders every year under Kelly. Any higher and they will be favorites every year.
Posted on 7/21/22 at 2:05 pm to GumboPot
You can’t tell me the difference between 4th and 7th is all that dramatic.
Now top 2 or 3 yeah those are usually a cut above. But I firmly believe that with a competent coach and consistent top 10 classes we can win big.
Now top 2 or 3 yeah those are usually a cut above. But I firmly believe that with a competent coach and consistent top 10 classes we can win big.
Posted on 7/21/22 at 2:07 pm to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
But I firmly believe that with a competent coach and consistent top 10 classes we can win big.
For sure, especially if we are getting 4-5 OL players a year and the same for DL. LSU has not done that consistently, basically ever, the last 15 years. We are starting to see that with Kelly.
Posted on 7/21/22 at 2:13 pm to jbraua
With the transfer portal recruiting rankings are not the end all and be all that they used to be. Still majorly important and if you’re not top 10 you’re not in contention but some of these classes will be supplemented by the transfer portal for sure. We have a legitimate free agency every year now.
10 years ago it would have been a 3-4 year project to fix the mess Coach O left. BK came in and immediately plugged holes with transfers to at least keep the program afloat and potentially even be competitive in year 1 or 2.
10 years ago it would have been a 3-4 year project to fix the mess Coach O left. BK came in and immediately plugged holes with transfers to at least keep the program afloat and potentially even be competitive in year 1 or 2.
This post was edited on 7/21/22 at 2:16 pm
Posted on 7/21/22 at 2:23 pm to jbraua
quote:
Feel free to correct me if I am wrong
Anything at this point is just an estimated guess anyways
Posted on 7/21/22 at 2:41 pm to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
You can’t tell me the difference between 4th and 7th is all that dramatic.
There is no difference. There are only subtle differences in 1-10, and meeting needs is more important. Recruiting class rankings can be extremely skewed, such as signing multiple QBs that artificially boost your rankings, or signing specialists which artificially lower your rankings.
I'm a firm believer that stars matter, but rating players is much more accurate than rating classes.
Posted on 7/21/22 at 2:55 pm to Jb1994
quote:
My prediction based on nothing has been 4-8th
This.
Posted on 7/21/22 at 2:59 pm to jbraua
Top 10 is great for the first full class. Let’s chill out.
Toviano and other surprises might increase our class rank
Toviano and other surprises might increase our class rank
Posted on 7/21/22 at 3:02 pm to jbraua
quote:
7th is "fine" every now and then, but not--statistically speaking--when 3-4 of the 6 teams consistently in front of you are in your own conference.
There's basically no difference between 7th and 3rd, 4th and 5th in most years, and the rankings are 100% subjective, so to say that it matters if 3 teams finish ahead of us is just wrong. You really think it matters if some other SEC team finishes a few points ahead of us in made up player rankings? The recruiting service do an ok job ranking guys within tiers, but they can't rank guys within tiers with any certainty. How can they predict the 100th ranked recruit is going to be better than the 125th ranked guy? Say one guy gets a rating of .9402 and the other guy is .9289. The second guy commits to us the other guy goes to A&M. Those ratings are going to impact the class rankings, but there's no way they can determine that the first guy is better than the other guy.
I understand it's the off season, but the entire premise of this thread is crazy. If everyone goes where they're supposed to based on current CBs? Come on, man. Is this your first year following recruiting?
I'm pretty sure our 2017 class ended up being ranked 7th and that class was the cornerstone of our 2019 run.
Posted on 7/21/22 at 3:06 pm to OKtiger
quote:
Top 10 is great for the first full class. Let’s chill out.
This mofo just told the rest of the board to chill out
Taking a break from shitting on current commits and the staff?
Posted on 7/21/22 at 3:09 pm to jbraua
Evaluation is what separates the top teams imo. The recruiting services aren't the experts...or at least they shouldn't be.
Identifying talent is what separates the classes after a few years.
Identifying talent is what separates the classes after a few years.
Posted on 7/21/22 at 3:11 pm to jbraua
If we go 7-5 during the season like many predict, I suspect we’ll land the guys we’re CB’d to get and nothing more. Top 7 to 10 class.
However, if they exceed expectations like I personally feel we will, you’ll see some big flips much the way we got some surprise commits during our 2019 season.
I think guys like Derek Williams (Texas commit) Jaiden Ausberry (CB’d to ND) and Kylin Jackson (currently considered an 8&4 lean) will have a different feel for our program once they see the product on the field.
However, if they exceed expectations like I personally feel we will, you’ll see some big flips much the way we got some surprise commits during our 2019 season.
I think guys like Derek Williams (Texas commit) Jaiden Ausberry (CB’d to ND) and Kylin Jackson (currently considered an 8&4 lean) will have a different feel for our program once they see the product on the field.
Posted on 7/21/22 at 3:11 pm to RussellSheppardsPie
quote:
This mofo just told the rest of the board to chill out
Taking a break from shitting on current commits and the staff?
He's actually been a pretty decent poster lately.
He dropped the chicken little schtick. Some other people on this board are incapable of doing that. I give him credit for that.
Posted on 7/21/22 at 3:13 pm to jbraua
In this era of college sports, you have to factor in the transfer additions to your signing classes. I’ll gladly take a #7 high school class along with some big names in the portal.
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