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re: Insane housing market in TN
Posted on 2/23/22 at 7:27 pm to STLhog
Posted on 2/23/22 at 7:27 pm to STLhog
quote:
Equity funds aren’t buying houses and flipping them or renting them. Are you talking about when the actual mortgages are traded off the banks book? Bank risk and capital is pretty solid.
Most of the cash buyers that are paying over list are from large investments funds. There are many of these funds out there that have been buying single family and multi family for the last few years and they have tens of thousands of properties in their portfolio inventory.
There are also lots of new Fintech and Proptech startups that have entered the Real Estate financing and investment scene over the last 3-5 years. These are all being funded by Equity Funds. These techs are filling in the void for the old Subprime and Hard money lenders with niche Real Estate financing offerings.
Bank risk and capital is not solid. Banks have not had to report their defaults since Covid started so no one really knows the true risk that the banks are holding onto at this time. Also, the banks are at high risk if another housing crash happens because they are the ones who are holding the mortgages on the inflated market values that individual buyers have been buying. If there is a little hiccup there is a great potential for a domino affect to run through the housing market.
The catch 22 for the banks is that with the hot market there likely are not many defaults and those that they have can be mitigated without much of a loss. However, all those new loans they are originating over the last couple years is a problem if interest rates rise and values crash.
This post was edited on 2/23/22 at 7:40 pm
1
Posted on 2/23/22 at 8:12 pm to STLhog
quote:
Inventories aren’t that low? You joking?
No I’m not. I don’t think inventories are low, I think the amount of buyers is high. If you want to call that inventories low that’s fine I get it. I think there’s a record number of homes being bought as investments and maybe by institutions, but otherwise not as primary residences. Tons of people now own 2nd homes. I also don’t think people sold their homes in the cities but have now bought homes in vacation or other destinations.
Builders are knocking out homes and it’s not like we are knocking out record numbers of new kids and no one is dying. Millennials are supposedly still staying home forever.
Posted on 2/23/22 at 8:24 pm to fwtex
quote:
Most of the cash buyers that are paying over list are from large investments funds.
Saw a stat the other day that 40% of the purchases in Austin are by investment funds.
Posted on 2/24/22 at 6:25 am to Zappas Stache
quote:
Saw a stat the other day that 40% of the purchases in Austin are by investment funds.
This has to be a bubble right? What’s their play? Hold and resell for 10-20% profit? Are they renting them out to pay some bills?
Posted on 2/24/22 at 10:12 am to baldona
quote:
This has to be a bubble right? What’s their play? Hold and resell for 10-20% profit? Are they renting them out to pay some bills?
While the majority of the population has been relying on the fraudulent media to report accurate economic data and forecast, these large fund managers were hedging the oncoming inflation and globalist economy.
These large funds can park their funds in residential housing and anything over 4% yield is good for them. Its a win win for them if the progressive vision of the future is implemented. Remember, a few months ago they were gleefully outlining a future where people would no longer own anything. Well, someone has to own it --- just not you.
Posted on 2/24/22 at 10:56 am to fwtex
Update on our buy. The selling agent had to remove the listing; they are getting constant calls and unsolicited offers on the house even though its under contract now and marked that way online. Its nuts. They are harassing the seller with enticements to break our contract by throwing cash at him and us. 
This is ridiculous. I'm now not 100% sure we have the house because I'm guessing if they throw enough money at him, he'll pay us to go away and break the contract.
So far he's told them the deal is already done but I'm not so sure given enough cash that it wouldn't be worth it to break the deal and pay us off.
Its just a house.
This is ridiculous. I'm now not 100% sure we have the house because I'm guessing if they throw enough money at him, he'll pay us to go away and break the contract.
So far he's told them the deal is already done but I'm not so sure given enough cash that it wouldn't be worth it to break the deal and pay us off.
Its just a house.
This post was edited on 2/24/22 at 11:02 am
Posted on 2/24/22 at 3:54 pm to Cracker
si
Posted on 2/24/22 at 5:10 pm to baldona
quote:
Hold and resell for 10-20% profit? Are they renting them out to pay some bills?
Both, rents are going up just like prop values so the investors can get a damn good return by renting these houses. Is it a bubble? I've been a small time real estate investor for 20 years and I've thought we were in a bubble 7 or 8 years ago but sales and prices keep going to the moon. I'm considering selling now but I sold a duplex for a 100k profit back in 2014 because I thought the market was overheated. If I would have held onto that duplex I could sell it today for a 600k profit. What I'm saying is, I have no clue.
Posted on 2/24/22 at 5:20 pm to CAD703X
If you have a signed written contract then you are fully in the drivers seat. If the seller tries to back out you can force specific performance, and if another party is knowingly interfering in your legal contract then you can sue them for Tortious interference. Of course these are remedies after its all gone to hell and adds stress but its your recourse.
Posted on 2/25/22 at 7:51 am to fwtex
Update on ours in Dallas, dear Facebook.
Found a house in coming soon status, love it, wanted to get ahead, drove by, everything is great. Our agent talks to theirs and they want a lease back for FREE until May 31. We’re signed on a short term lease until End of May anyway so we said fine, this will give us a leg up. We offer 85 over, super clean contract, lease back etc.
And the buyer still wants to list. Un-effing believable.
We’re hoping the come crawling back after this weekend, I don’t see a ton of buyers offering well over list with that ridiculous lease back ask but we shall see.
I’m also tempted to say F off if they do come back just in principal. Idiots.
Found a house in coming soon status, love it, wanted to get ahead, drove by, everything is great. Our agent talks to theirs and they want a lease back for FREE until May 31. We’re signed on a short term lease until End of May anyway so we said fine, this will give us a leg up. We offer 85 over, super clean contract, lease back etc.
And the buyer still wants to list. Un-effing believable.
We’re hoping the come crawling back after this weekend, I don’t see a ton of buyers offering well over list with that ridiculous lease back ask but we shall see.
I’m also tempted to say F off if they do come back just in principal. Idiots.
This post was edited on 2/25/22 at 7:55 am
Posted on 2/25/22 at 7:54 am to baldona
Dude no one is buying “vacation” homes in Dallas and Nashville and some of the other core markets.
Way too many people are moving to these places that have no infrastructure or housing.
DFW is the 3rd largest metro now and there are no houses. Anything decent is gone in 2 days. It’s a fact. Same thing in Nashville, look on the MLS.
We’re not talking about bum frick Alabama, we’re talking about 2 of the hottest markets in the entire country.
Way too many people are moving to these places that have no infrastructure or housing.
DFW is the 3rd largest metro now and there are no houses. Anything decent is gone in 2 days. It’s a fact. Same thing in Nashville, look on the MLS.
We’re not talking about bum frick Alabama, we’re talking about 2 of the hottest markets in the entire country.
This post was edited on 2/25/22 at 7:58 am
Posted on 2/25/22 at 7:56 am to STLhog
Funds may be heavy in ATX but core markets are single family buyers.
The only thing that “blows” this up is a gigantic recession where no one can pay their mortgages and they default.
Problem is a ton of people are buying with a ton of cash at super low rates so their payments aren’t that insane.
It’s nowhere near what 2008 was with variable rates and folks in houses they had no business being in.
The only thing that “blows” this up is a gigantic recession where no one can pay their mortgages and they default.
Problem is a ton of people are buying with a ton of cash at super low rates so their payments aren’t that insane.
It’s nowhere near what 2008 was with variable rates and folks in houses they had no business being in.
Posted on 2/25/22 at 8:02 am to Zappas Stache
I honestly don’t see why anyone who owns secondary real estate doesn’t sell it right now and just chill.
Definitely get your point of stuff continually going up but something has to give this year.
I say that as I’m buying in what will likely be the top haha.
But as you said, rent is so high, I’d rather just have an asset putting a lot of money down.
Definitely get your point of stuff continually going up but something has to give this year.
I say that as I’m buying in what will likely be the top haha.
But as you said, rent is so high, I’d rather just have an asset putting a lot of money down.
Posted on 2/25/22 at 12:57 pm to STLhog
Sorry to hear about your house experience. It's nuts out there. We are going to ask for a lease back but we're not making it a requirement and would absolutely pay to stay for a couple weeks if they agreed.
I don't really plan to play games with buyers. Make a legit offer and if it's at least what we want we'll take it and never look back.
I don't really plan to play games with buyers. Make a legit offer and if it's at least what we want we'll take it and never look back.
Posted on 2/25/22 at 1:15 pm to CAD703X
Currently doing just that. Under contract in a few hours, cash, no appraisal, pass/fail inspection. Could have gone through the weekend for more offers but had multiple the instant it went live and was blown away so went with highest/best. (No games like you said) Leaseback for a month. Now if only I was moving to a buyers market if there is such a thing these days haha. Can’t celebrate too much due to taxes and having to move into a similar market.
Posted on 2/25/22 at 2:10 pm to xraytiger
quote:
Currently doing just that. Under contract in a few hours, cash, no appraisal, pass/fail inspection. Could have gone through the weekend for more offers but had multiple the instant it went live and was blown away so went with highest/best. (No games like you said) Leaseback for a month. Now if only I was moving to a buyers market if there is such a thing these days haha. Can’t celebrate too much due to taxes and having to move into a similar market.
nuts huh? i wonder if we looked at your house?
my wife was obsessively pounding zillow for the last 3 months looking for one that would fit our needs so she looked at literally every single one in williamson county that went up on MLS. we tried for a new build in both stephens valley & westhaven but they have literally nothing to sell until late summer/early fall at the earliest and there's already waiting lists for those 2 or 3 that will be trickling out at that time. they won't even talk to you about it until the drywall is up on the build; the price is going up several hundred thousand dollars in 2-3 months so they were pissing people off after telling them how much it was likely going to sell for and accepting a HOLD on the house then when it finally reached the point where they wanted to close the price was 300k higher than what the buyers were told 4 months earlier.
The person holding the house can't afford that huge increase so the house goes back onto the open market where a feeding frenzy takes place and the builder ends up with a nice fat margin accepting an offer for 25-50% over what they listed (which is already inflated).
FYI the crazy house i'm talking about is in Fairview so its not just limited to the heart of Williamson county either.
Where are you moving?
This post was edited on 2/25/22 at 2:23 pm
Posted on 2/25/22 at 2:25 pm to CAD703X
Moving to Denver.
Sold in Keystone in Franklin. Williamson County. Absolutely nuts!
Sold in Keystone in Franklin. Williamson County. Absolutely nuts!
Posted on 2/25/22 at 3:02 pm to xraytiger
i see you does this sound right?
you have the holy trinity like we do; sf, acreage & location.
eta i'm scared about the tax implications as well.
does this sound right? quote:
Time on Zillow
6 days
|
Views
2,228
|
Saves
62
you have the holy trinity like we do; sf, acreage & location.
eta i'm scared about the tax implications as well.
This post was edited on 2/25/22 at 3:04 pm
Posted on 2/25/22 at 3:25 pm to kisatchie53
quote:
I wish people from California and New York would stay in California and New York.
i'm sure it's not legal, but if i found out somebody was moving to my town from CA or NY and made an offer, i'd say no. same as if i found out blackrock was making the offer.
hell, we did a remodel of a historic home in 20/21, and afterwards had people from Austin contact us seeing if we'd sell and i said no. we live north of Georgetown and a decent amount of people i've met that moved here from Austin are the same as people from CA/NY.
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