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re: Who would you rather keep?
Posted on 7/30/15 at 12:17 pm to Lester Earl
Posted on 7/30/15 at 12:17 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
when? I know he had 1 long run last year(which was 20% of his rushing total, btw), but c'mon.
dude had 80 carries, really hasn't proven anything.
take away his 90yd run and he is a 4.1 guy. Take away his 2nd longest run, and he is at 3.8 YPC. Very very small sample size.
I hate when people use this. (Although I will admit it's a tad more sensible in this case, but I still don't agree with it.) Big gains are part of his draw and repertoire. He's huge with blazing fast speed. I think you can expect a few of these big gains to continue, not be the anamoly. He's proven he has the talent and physical skills to be successful at the NFL level. Now will he capitalize on that and his opportunity? That's yet to be seen. But to say he hasn't shown more potential than player X you'd draft in the 13th to creep in that scoring range - which was my original sentiment - is wrong IMO.
You can't just start docking people of stuff they've done. Eventually you take away his 4 biggest runs and he might drop below 3.0 ypc. So on and so forth. And after the 90 yarder 4.1 really isn't that bad. 250 carries and he's over 1000 yards with that. But that's besides the point.
Since his sample size is smaller, taking away one or two of his biggest runs is more detrimental to his average than if you took away one or two of Lacy's biggest runs, or Bell, etc. To be fair if you extrapolated his 80 carries to a modest 240 over a full season, using the same percentage of runs, you'd essentially be taking away 6 of his biggest carries. I would think any RB's YPC would suffer decently if you took away their 6 biggest runs.
This is the same argument I see a lot of people (mainly on reddit) use against Hill this year. "Yeah well if you took away his X amount of 20yd runs and his longest run each game he'd only be this good". Like, being able to break to the second level for big gains is one of the things that should attract you to him. He routinely showed he could do it. No RB gets only 4.5 yards every single carry no more, no less. They're averages and the runs will fluxuate. He might have a string of 2,3 or 4 yard carries and then a 20ish yarder to bring it back up.
3
Posted on 7/30/15 at 12:52 pm to PokerChamp21
quote:
Who would you rather keep? by PokerChamp21
quote:I just read this thread, and I disagree with all the posts that picked Murray. Pittsburgh is highly touted this year. Defenders are going to be doing everything they can to stop Antonio Brown and Le-Veon Bell, leaving Bryant wide open to have a break out season.
Martavis Bryant - lose a 16th
Murray may be very talented, but I don't want him on my team until he figures out where the end zone is. I've read the hype about Murray in 2015, but I'm not buying it.
Posted on 7/30/15 at 12:56 pm to wrlakers
quote:
Defenders are going to be doing everything they can to stop Antonio Brown and Le-Veon Bell
as opposed to not trying to stop them last season?
Posted on 7/30/15 at 12:56 pm to PurpleDrank18
quote:
I hate when people use this. (Although I will admit it's a tad more sensible in this case, but I still don't agree with it.)
To be fair, Murray did all his damage in 1H of 1 game. 4 carries. It was also a prime time game against KC, so everyone saw it. I think that exposure is conducting this hype train somewhat.
3 of the next 4 games he was sub 4 ypc with 0 TDs.
He went for 16/171/2 for 10.8 ypc in two games vs KC, who had a bottom 5 rush defense in 2014.
The rest of the season he went 66/253/0 for 3.8 ypc
If Big Ben is going to do as well as people think, he could produce two top 20 WRs. It's a close call for me
Posted on 7/30/15 at 12:58 pm to PurpleDrank18
quote:
Since his sample size is smaller, taking away one or two of his biggest runs is more detrimental to his average than if you took away one or two of Lacy's biggest runs, or Bell, etc. To be fair if you extrapolated his 80 carries to a modest 240 over a full season, using the same percentage of runs, you'd essentially be taking away 6 of his biggest carries. I would think any RB's YPC would suffer decently if you took away their 6 biggest runs.
to be fair its an argument that was also used against guys like Spiller, Ellington, and Doug Martin in previous seasons so it does hold some water to remove outliers but I also understand your point as well.
This post was edited on 7/30/15 at 1:00 pm
Posted on 7/30/15 at 1:02 pm to BilJ
Leveon Bell had like a 3.5 ypc before last year. 
This post was edited on 7/30/15 at 1:03 pm
Posted on 7/30/15 at 1:03 pm to 21JumpStreet
Bell is also a guy who completely changed his style, didn't even look like the same back from his rookie season
This post was edited on 7/30/15 at 1:04 pm
Posted on 7/30/15 at 1:13 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
To be fair, Murray did all his damage in 1H of 1 game. 4 carries. It was also a prime time game against KC, so everyone saw it. I think that exposure is conducting this hype train somewhat.
3 of the next 4 games he was sub 4 ypc with 0 TDs.
He went for 16/171/2 for 10.8 ypc in two games vs KC, who had a bottom 5 rush defense in 2014.
The rest of the season he went 66/253/0 for 3.8 ypc
Guys, I never said I'm 100% on the Murray train and think he WILL be a top 12 RB. I just think he's definitely shown the potential to be, especially over a replacement player you pick in Rd. 13, and you can't deny that; he's a physical freak. Does he have his question marks? Of course, there's no denying that either.
Just my whole philosophy regarding this scenario is maximizing your profits. If both players were to hit, Murray would undoubtedly be more valuable to your team than Bryant because if his position and the round you spent on him.
But obviously there really isn't a wrong answer, at this point at least. OP is just going to have to trust his own gut on this one.
Posted on 7/30/15 at 1:14 pm to 21JumpStreet
quote:
Leveon Bell had like a 3.5 ypc before last year.
He did start slow after he came back from his injury and got his first NFL experience. But he had > 4 ypc in four out of five of the last games of 2013.
But Bell is not the topic here, right?
Posted on 7/30/15 at 1:30 pm to wrlakers
But they're going to do everything to stop him now.
Posted on 7/30/15 at 2:19 pm to PurpleDrank18
You can't argue that it doesn't hold some merit.
He had 82 carries. A long of 90, and another that went for 24.
So he had 80 other carries for 3.8ypc
I love his big gain potential, but those other 80 carries are more indicative of a RB on a bad team. It's not like he was ripping big carries often. One every 40 carries or so?
Tough schedule, still on a shitty team. Not a big gamble with a 13th but I'd rather Bryant. You're going to have to take 2 RB fairly early either way.
He had 82 carries. A long of 90, and another that went for 24.
So he had 80 other carries for 3.8ypc
I love his big gain potential, but those other 80 carries are more indicative of a RB on a bad team. It's not like he was ripping big carries often. One every 40 carries or so?
Tough schedule, still on a shitty team. Not a big gamble with a 13th but I'd rather Bryant. You're going to have to take 2 RB fairly early either way.
Posted on 7/30/15 at 2:21 pm to 21JumpStreet
quote:
But they're going to do everything to stop him now.
Yeah, and it's because they didn't realize he was good until the season was over
Posted on 7/30/15 at 2:23 pm to Lester Earl
This post was edited on 7/30/15 at 3:25 pm
Posted on 7/30/15 at 2:24 pm to Lester Earl
I'm not betting against murrays talent, I'm betting against the raiders. I'm betting against him being in on 3rd down with a vet like Helu around a young QB. I'm betting against them being ahead in games and feeding Murray the ball. Just a tough situation for him.
Posted on 7/30/15 at 3:02 pm to Lester Earl
No doubt his team situation is doing him no favors. And I wouldn't scoff at anybody taking Bryant in this situation at all. But given how low the cost is I'm more inclined to gamble here. Low risk, high reward.
Now if we were talking about keeping them more near their respective ADP so maybe a 5th for Murray or an 8th for Bryant I'd definitely rather Bryant at the 8th round cost.
Now if we were talking about keeping them more near their respective ADP so maybe a 5th for Murray or an 8th for Bryant I'd definitely rather Bryant at the 8th round cost.
This post was edited on 7/30/15 at 3:05 pm
Posted on 7/30/15 at 3:03 pm to Lester Earl
keeper questions are also tough to answer because we don't know what all is going to be available to him at either position.
Posted on 8/3/15 at 9:28 am to Lester Earl
quote:
"I think Markus Wheaton is our breakout player of the year," Roethlisberger said on Sirius XM NFL Radio. "I want that. I want him to have that pressure. Because when we're in two wide receivers, he's our No. 2. And we're asking him to play outside. And we go three wide receivers, we ask him to move inside."
Posted on 12/21/15 at 9:49 pm to PokerChamp21
who'd we end up keeping here?
Posted on 12/21/15 at 9:55 pm to Lester Earl
Damn reaching way back into the vault huh?
Posted on 12/21/15 at 9:56 pm to Biggereztiger
i have a bunch of threads bookmarked. debating if i should unleash the Abdullah threads 
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