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Keeper Help - Luck +1

Posted on 8/25/15 at 9:49 am
Posted by kennypowers816
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2010
2446 posts
Posted on 8/25/15 at 9:49 am
Standard league +.25ppr. 10 team. Here are my options with costs.

Luck - 4th round (I feel like this is a no brainer)
DT88 - 1st round
Alshon - 2nd round
Murray - 1st round
Foster - 3rd round
Kelce - 10th
Forsett - 10th
Blue - 10th
Jordan Matthews - 10th
Joseph Randle - 10th


I'm leaning towards Luck and Forsett. Matthews also intrigues me though because of his youth. I could in theory hold on to him for many years to come at a very low cost if he continues to produce. Forsett is old.

TIA

This post was edited on 8/25/15 at 9:57 am
Posted by I APOLLO I
atx
Member since Jun 2014
330 posts
Posted on 8/25/15 at 9:55 am to
yes luck and forsett seem like the best options or you could get Thomas is your willing to give up your first round pick. but yes luck and forsett
Posted by Ranger198
Member since Oct 2012
792 posts
Posted on 8/25/15 at 9:57 am to
Luck and Forsett is the correct answer.
Posted by Telephone Tough Guy
Member since Feb 2008
2083 posts
Posted on 8/25/15 at 10:04 am to
Which pick will you have? Do you have an idea of which rbs will be in the draft pool?
Posted by LSU-MNCBABY
Knightsgate
Member since Jan 2004
24356 posts
Posted on 8/25/15 at 10:07 am to
Hmmm, what pick in round 1 do you have?

If you have a late pick I would lean Luck and DT

Early pick I think you're correct with Luck and Forsett
Posted by kennypowers816
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2010
2446 posts
Posted on 8/25/15 at 10:08 am to
Runner up last year so I have the 9th pick.

No clue what other RBs will be gone and at what cost. I could go through and make some guesses based on what I would do, but I haven't been close to right the past couple of years. These guys make some interesting keeper decisions
Posted by LSU-MNCBABY
Knightsgate
Member since Jan 2004
24356 posts
Posted on 8/25/15 at 10:10 am to
At pick 9 I would keep DT, then snag a RB at your pick 2.2

Its hard to let elite talent go in keeper leagues, Forsett isn't elite. I feel like people get to caught up in perceived "value" in these decisions and overthink it.
Posted by kennypowers816
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2010
2446 posts
Posted on 8/25/15 at 10:17 am to
I just glanced at it and for what its worth, I think 6 people ahead of me in the draft order will keep a 1st rounder. That means that I could keep Forsett or Matthews at 10 and still have a chance for DT88 at 1.9.
Posted by PhiTiger1764
Lurker since Aug 2003
Member since Oct 2009
13863 posts
Posted on 8/25/15 at 10:22 am to
quote:


At pick 9 I would keep DT, then snag a RB at your pick 2.2


Or he could keep Forsett in the 10th and just draft DT at 9... What am I missing here?

Keeping DT at 1.09 shouldn't even be a consideration.
Posted by kennypowers816
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2010
2446 posts
Posted on 8/25/15 at 11:23 am to
quote:

Or he could keep Forsett in the 10th and just draft DT at 9... What am I missing here?

Keeping DT at 1.09 shouldn't even be a consideration.


This is kind of how I'm feeling.

Also, despite everyone's thoughts on Forsett, I'm still strongly thinking about Matthews. I'm afraid of Forsett's age and the new offense. I don't think he's a long term solution. Matthews may end up being a bust, but the upside is huge. Their ADP isn't that far away from eachother this year anyway. A round or so from what I've seen.
Posted by GeauxTigers6447
Member since Nov 2014
179 posts
Posted on 8/25/15 at 11:57 am to
In .25 ppr I wouldn't keep Forsett. I would go Luck and DT88. DT is worth a first round pick. You can look at RB's in the 2nd,3rd, or 4th round and pick them when the value is right.

In a ten team league their should be plenty of depth to pick from at most positions, but getting elite players like Luck and DT is still tough if everyone has two keepers.

With 2 keepers in the league DT88 at 1.09 is really more like 3.09.
This post was edited on 8/25/15 at 12:06 pm
Posted by PhiTiger1764
Lurker since Aug 2003
Member since Oct 2009
13863 posts
Posted on 8/25/15 at 11:59 am to
So essentially you think he should throw away his ability to keep Forsett or Mathews in the 10th for nothing.

Someone explain the logic of keeping DT at 1.09
This post was edited on 8/25/15 at 12:00 pm
Posted by Ranger198
Member since Oct 2012
792 posts
Posted on 8/25/15 at 12:08 pm to
That is correct it is just about a round or so difference in ADP, but you have to think Forsett is about the 8th best RB and Matthews is probably around the 14th-15th best WR and the WR position is deeper.
Posted by GeauxTigers6447
Member since Nov 2014
179 posts
Posted on 8/25/15 at 12:13 pm to
In a ten team, 2 keeper league I don't want to risk losing elite players at their position. There is depth everywhere, but not elite players. I think Forsett and Mathews will be available at 1.09 and 2.2 and if not comparable players will be there. With 20 players off the board DT could be the first pick taken. Then there probably won't be a comparable player to DT available.
Posted by PhiTiger1764
Lurker since Aug 2003
Member since Oct 2009
13863 posts
Posted on 8/25/15 at 12:18 pm to
Ok.. I understand your position a little better now. But even assuming Brown, Julio, Dez, OBJ, DT88, Calvin are all either kept or drafted by 1.09, he could still land a Cobb or Jeffrey there and pair that with Jordan Mathews in the 10th. I think that's better than DT88 and a Kenny Stills.

This post was edited on 8/25/15 at 12:19 pm
Posted by Weekend Warrior79
Member since Aug 2014
16397 posts
Posted on 8/25/15 at 12:26 pm to
quote:

I think Forsett and Mathews will be available at 1.09 and 2.2


The way I would look at it is they would be available at 1.09 and 2.2; however, you are essentially getting them for 10.2. And, while DT probably will be gone by 1.09, there are a handful of other WRs/RBs that will fall to 1.09; especially if you think some of the other teams will use their 1st round picks.

I think it's worth the risk and would go w/ Luck & Matthews
This post was edited on 8/25/15 at 12:28 pm
Posted by GeauxTigers6447
Member since Nov 2014
179 posts
Posted on 8/25/15 at 12:35 pm to
I would agree that Cobb or Jeffrey with Mathews would be better than DT88 and Stills, but in a 10 team league I would expect to be able to do better than Stills for my WR2.

If there are 20 keepers and assuming he goes RB/RB in rds 2 and 3 (with no 1st or 4th) that is about 60 players taken. Assuming 10 of the top 20 keepers are taken in the first 4 rounds and result in 10 lost picks, his 5th round pick should be around pick 55 - 60 (I am losing track of the math here). Assuming this is accurate I would expect to see Landry, Tate, Edelman, Cooper, etc.. someone at that level.
Posted by LSU-MNCBABY
Knightsgate
Member since Jan 2004
24356 posts
Posted on 8/25/15 at 1:10 pm to
quote:

Someone explain the logic of keeping DT at 1.09



quote:


In a ten team, 2 keeper league I don't want to risk losing elite players at their position.



This is what I am thinking, you dont want to ever give up elite talent in a keeper league.

For example,

1. gives back DT keeps matthews. DT is gone by his pick at 1.9 no other "elite" rb or wr is there, takes best available at that position. Matthews turns out to be a middling WR.

2. Keeps DT at 1.9. No "elite" talent is available at 2.2 in the draft, goes with best rb/wr available.

Has 3 players at this point in both scenarios, option 2 is much more desirable and less risky long term.


I get that yeah if Matthews pans out to be a lower WR1 type player this year and he can grab a top 7 or 8 RB at 1.9 his team ends up better, but there are a ton of moving parts in this scenario. Keeping the 2 elite players ensures having 2 elite players with essentially the same likelihood of landing another elite player just 3 picks later in the draft at 2.2.

If he was picking earlier in the 1st round I agree its a no brainer to keep mathews or forsett because he could foreseeably upgrade to a more elite player, or at worst re-draft DT.
Posted by kennypowers816
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2010
2446 posts
Posted on 8/25/15 at 2:31 pm to
Maybe I'm wrong to do this, but I always think about the long term potential with my keeper decisions.

Luck - he's young, already arguably the best QB. He's a steal to keep in the 4th

DT88 - he's relatively young, but his future is uncertain. Does he make sense to keep in Round 1 this year? Yes. But what about next year with Peyton gone? Is he a 1st rounder again?

Forsett - he's old for an RB and has a new OC. Everyone thinks he'll do well this year, and I'm a buyer in the short term, especially for a 10th round pick. But is he really the long term solution at the Ravens? Is he going to be a potential keeper in the future?

Matthews - young and the #1 fantasy WR option on a high powered offense. Does he have potential to be a bust? Absolutely. But the upside is great. If he pans out to be a solid WR2 or even a low end WR1, I'm getting him for huge value in years to come.
Posted by GeauxTigers6447
Member since Nov 2014
179 posts
Posted on 8/25/15 at 3:48 pm to
It is all about your comfort level. I would just add this.

DT88 has Peyton Manning this year and after that who knows.

Mathews has Bradford who is new to the system and has a long history of getting injured every year; Sanchez, Barkley and Tebow (no comments needed)and Who knows how much Tebow will be used in goal line situations limiting red zone targets for Matthews (if he makes the team).

I suspect the Broncos will find a QB's as good as anyone Philly currently has, when Peyton is gone. Of course the Eagles hurry up offense and number of plays they run is a big benefit to all of their players.

Good luck with whatever direction you decide to go.
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