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Draft Value article from Barnwell at Grantland

Posted on 3/25/15 at 9:10 pm
Posted by tdevil1
Member since Mar 2007
154 posts
Posted on 3/25/15 at 9:10 pm
LINK /

quote:

2. New Orleans Saints
Expected Draft Value: 46.2 points (Rank: 13rd)
Actual Draft Value: 62.1 points (Rank: Third)
Difference: 34.5 percent

Look back at what the Saints did this offseason and you can see how their plan formed. Sean Payton and Mickey Loomis presided over a wildly disappointing 2014 team that failed to live up to lofty expectations, primarily thanks to the league’s second-worst defense. Given that the Saints were more than $20 million over the salary cap, it was going to be virtually impossible to make wholesale changes.

That is, of course, unless they somehow found a way to acquire a bunch of low-cost, high-upside assets. Those are draft picks, and Loomis got a bunch of them. It cost the Saints a fourth-round pick and a trio of offensive starters in Jimmy Graham, Ben Grubbs, and Kenny Stills, but the Saints came away from their offseason trade spree with the 31st, 78th, and 154th picks in this year’s draft. Even after subtracting the fourth-rounder, those 17.5 points amount to the expected return of a mid-first-round pick. The Saints now have three of the first 50 picks and five of the first 80.

Of course, you can’t just write off trading a weapon like Graham as an easy call. Loomis is the same guy who gave Jairus Byrd an enormous deal and signed Champ Bailey to start at cornerback last offseason, and both of those moves turned out to be mistakes. But if you figure that a team with Payton and Brees can create playmakers on offense a lot more easily than it can on the other side of the football, repositioning its assets toward defense makes a lot of sense. And given that the Saints are all in with Brees over the next two seasons, if they want to make the same sort of defensive leap that led them to the Super Bowl in 2009, it’s going to come from young, cheap talent on defense.


Sorry if it's been covered..
Posted by Mr.Perfect
Louisiana
Member since Mar 2013
17438 posts
Posted on 3/25/15 at 9:13 pm to
quote:

Expected Draft Value: 46.2 points (Rank: 13rd)
Actual Draft Value: 62.1 points (Rank: Third)




So who are we taking at #3
Posted by mm2316
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Aug 2010
6942 posts
Posted on 3/25/15 at 10:20 pm to
I know his time here isn't off to a good start, but it's crazy how much Byrd has been written off already.
Posted by Gugich22
Who Dat Nation
Member since Jan 2006
27710 posts
Posted on 3/25/15 at 10:28 pm to
quote:

Loomis is the same guy who gave Jairus Byrd an enormous deal and signed Champ Bailey to start at cornerback last offseason, and both of those moves turned out to be mistakes


Isn't it a little too soon to call that a mistake?
Posted by LooseCannon22282
Mobile
Member since May 2008
33732 posts
Posted on 3/25/15 at 10:38 pm to
quote:

is the same guy who gave Jairus Byrd an enormous deal and signed Champ Bailey to start at cornerback last offseason, and both of those moves turned out to be mistakes.


so how do we know the Jairus Byrd signing was a mistake? This guy sounds like a tool. Byrd has already reworked his deal and should be good to go health wise this year. Was taking a flier on Champ Bailey a mistake? Probably. But not a major one money wise.

We drafted a corner who barely contributed in any way so there is that. Plus the guy is going to be 25 when the season starts and has hardly any experience. If I'm gonna nitpick about something... it would be that.

This post was edited on 3/25/15 at 10:40 pm
Posted by CocoLoco
Member since Jan 2012
29108 posts
Posted on 3/25/15 at 10:49 pm to
No shite. He's an all-pro caliber safety. He's going to do some serious work this season, watch.
Posted by Suntiger
BR or somewhere else
Member since Feb 2007
32946 posts
Posted on 3/26/15 at 7:10 am to
I just hope to hell that Ryan doesn't have Byrd and Vacarro playing 30 yards off the line of scrimmage like he started them off last year. You may as well have just played with 9 players.
Posted by Hoodoo Man
Sunshine Pumping most days.
Member since Oct 2011
31637 posts
Posted on 3/26/15 at 7:32 am to
quote:

Rank: 13rd
Posted by mm2316
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Aug 2010
6942 posts
Posted on 3/26/15 at 8:50 am to
quote:

Was taking a flier on Champ Bailey a mistake? Probably. But not a major one money wise.

In hindsight, sure. But at the time, you would think between Champ, your 5th year former 1st round pick that has shown flashes (P-Rob), and a 2nd round pick (SJB), that someone could have won that spot. Unfortunately, that did not happen. Maybe that could have been more aggressive like they were this year with Browner to get more of a sure thing, but it wasn't Champ or bust at #2. None of the other options happened to work out either.
Posted by NOSHAU
Member since Feb 2012
11865 posts
Posted on 3/26/15 at 9:29 am to
quote:

Byrd has already reworked his deal...
All he did was convert a roster bonus to a signing bonus. It was planned when he signed the deal (the same reason Gallete had the same type of setup). It is written into the contract in order to defer cap space.
Posted by The Sad Banana
The gate is narrow.
Member since Jul 2008
89498 posts
Posted on 3/26/15 at 9:39 am to
quote:

quote:

Rank: 13rd

Posted by Midget Death Squad
Meme Magic
Member since Oct 2008
24495 posts
Posted on 3/26/15 at 9:43 am to
quote:

crazy how much Byrd has been written off already.



This is due to how poorly he performed prior to his injury. What's ignored by those people though is that the entire defense played like shite, so it's not a fair gauge to assess Byrd on a limited playing basis surrounded by stellar crap.
Posted by goatmilker
Castle Anthrax
Member since Feb 2009
64279 posts
Posted on 3/26/15 at 9:48 am to
My question is will Rob still play him 50 yards off the damn ball?
Posted by Midget Death Squad
Meme Magic
Member since Oct 2008
24495 posts
Posted on 3/26/15 at 10:08 am to
no. he's already admitted to his mistake. he is pushing him back 10 yards to rectify it; he will be 60 yards from here on out
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
166146 posts
Posted on 3/26/15 at 10:10 am to
Byrd got off to a slow start with new surroundings but he actually played a pretty good game before he got hurt. Missing Byrd the rest of the season caused us to miss the playoffs.
Posted by LooseCannon22282
Mobile
Member since May 2008
33732 posts
Posted on 3/26/15 at 10:46 am to
oh okay. So we saved almost 5 million in cap space this year by converting his roster bonus to a signing bonus.

My B.

I just thought the way the guy worded it sounded so final. Byrd was never really 100% percent last off season and never really had time to develop a rapport with anyone on the field. Then when he did play.. well.. it was weird watching him play way back there in coverage.. like 40 or 50 yards back.

A healthy Byrd on the field will make a difference. He's a good player who caused a lot of turnovers in Buffalo. Just so happens he wasn't all that healthy last year but that doesn't make the signing a mistake by any means. Maybe the amount was pretty steep but if he can come back to form it will be worth it and Barnwell's take will be total hogwash.
Posted by LooseCannon22282
Mobile
Member since May 2008
33732 posts
Posted on 3/26/15 at 10:56 am to
quote:

In hindsight, sure. But at the time, you would think between Champ, your 5th year former 1st round pick that has shown flashes (P-Rob), and a 2nd round pick (SJB), that someone could have won that spot. Unfortunately, that did not happen. Maybe that could have been more aggressive like they were this year with Browner to get more of a sure thing, but it wasn't Champ or bust at #2. None of the other options happened to work out either.


Agree. Thats why I don't get why he bashed the signing. We didn't throw a lot of money at him and the other options never really panned out. P-Rob was okay playing the nickel but never really took over the #2 spot. Corey White struggled and then spazzed out on that play in the Lions game.

but now we have Browner and like you said we were a lot more aggressive this year in free agency.

now we have two corners who are bigger.

6'4" and 6'1"

we've never had a combo like this before.
Posted by mm2316
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Aug 2010
6942 posts
Posted on 3/26/15 at 11:03 am to
quote:

now we have two corners who are bigger.

If Breaux and SJB can get on the field this season, we'll have some serious size at 4 CB spots.
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