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Started By
Message
Phil Steele's pick
Posted on 10/8/09 at 11:03 am
Posted on 10/8/09 at 11:03 am
If anyone cares.
My Forecast:
The winner of this game has won the last 3 national titles. UF has lost to an SEC West team every year since 1999, but Meyer’s teams are 27-3 with more than a week to prepare. Last year Miles suffered his worst loss in 4 years at LSU, 51-21 (LSU only trailed 20-14 mid-3Q). LSU is off a last minute 20-13 win over Georgia in which they had a 19-11 FD edge and a 368-274 yard edge, but the game winning touchdown drive was set up by a questionable celebration penalty. Florida luckily had a bye to get rested and hopefully Tebow will be healthy (concussion vs Kentucky). The dog has 3 outright upsets in this series since 2002. This is the toughest defense by far that LSU QB Jefferson has faced (averaging 184 yards per game, 7-2 ratio). LSU has won 32 consecutive Saturday night games at home, but Florida has edges on offense, defense and special teams.
PHIL’S FORECAST : florida 30 lsu 16
LINK
My Forecast:
The winner of this game has won the last 3 national titles. UF has lost to an SEC West team every year since 1999, but Meyer’s teams are 27-3 with more than a week to prepare. Last year Miles suffered his worst loss in 4 years at LSU, 51-21 (LSU only trailed 20-14 mid-3Q). LSU is off a last minute 20-13 win over Georgia in which they had a 19-11 FD edge and a 368-274 yard edge, but the game winning touchdown drive was set up by a questionable celebration penalty. Florida luckily had a bye to get rested and hopefully Tebow will be healthy (concussion vs Kentucky). The dog has 3 outright upsets in this series since 2002. This is the toughest defense by far that LSU QB Jefferson has faced (averaging 184 yards per game, 7-2 ratio). LSU has won 32 consecutive Saturday night games at home, but Florida has edges on offense, defense and special teams.
PHIL’S FORECAST : florida 30 lsu 16
LINK
This post was edited on 10/8/09 at 11:19 am
6
Posted on 10/8/09 at 11:15 am to noladan
I don't get why everyone is picking Mississippi. They obviously see beyond the horrible play so far this year by them.
Posted on 10/8/09 at 11:16 am to noladan
Florida could easily cover...i don't think anyone saw us coming within 14 points of florida before the georgia game and now LSU is the trendy upset pick
Posted on 10/8/09 at 11:17 am to noladan
quote:
Florida 30 LSU 16
Posted on 10/8/09 at 11:18 am to noladan
He also said that UGA would beat us 31-20. So he was about 18 points off in that prediction.
Posted on 10/8/09 at 11:20 am to tigerfan in bamaland
why is uga over tenn and upset
Posted on 10/8/09 at 11:24 am to Johnny Utah9
quote:
why is uga over tenn and upset
I think I saw that UT was actually a slight favorite. It doesn't seem right, so if I were gambling I'd stay away from that one
Posted on 10/8/09 at 11:28 am to noladan
I dont get the Ole Miss over Bama thing at all either. I put my $ on Bama early thinking they'd become more than a 6.5 pt favorite. I FADE YOU, PUBLIC 
Posted on 10/8/09 at 11:31 am to noladan
quote:
but the game winning touchdown drive was set up by a 40 yd kick return and 5 yds offsides penalty on the kickoff
Posted on 10/8/09 at 11:32 am to noladan
Why do these so-called experts always do a "trend analysis" rather than a "matchup analysis", when matchups are what matters the most, not trends.
Neither Florida's 5-0 record, nor LSU's 5-0 record, is going to help them this week. Last year's wins and losses won't help them this week. LSU's string of consecutive Saturday night wins won't help them this Saturday.
Matchups matter. O vs. D, ST's vs. ST's, playcalling, and individual position play will make a difference in this game. Not previous records and trends. I think it's just lazy "sports analysts" who look at the trends as the deciding factor.
</rant off>
Neither Florida's 5-0 record, nor LSU's 5-0 record, is going to help them this week. Last year's wins and losses won't help them this week. LSU's string of consecutive Saturday night wins won't help them this Saturday.
Matchups matter. O vs. D, ST's vs. ST's, playcalling, and individual position play will make a difference in this game. Not previous records and trends. I think it's just lazy "sports analysts" who look at the trends as the deciding factor.
</rant off>
This post was edited on 10/8/09 at 11:33 am
Posted on 10/8/09 at 11:36 am to no1g8r
quote:
LSU's string of consecutive Saturday night wins won't help them this Saturday.
The string of victories is indicative of the atmosphere in Tiger Stadium on Saturday night. And that atmosphere will inspire LSU and therefore impact the outcome. That's the intrinsic nature of home field advantage. It's why Vegas usually gives three points to the home team.
Other than that, though, I agree with your assertion.
Posted on 10/8/09 at 11:36 am to no1g8r
quote:
Matchups matter. O vs. D, ST's vs. ST's, playcalling, and individual position play will make a difference in this game. Not previous records and trends. I think it's just lazy "sports analysts" who look at the trends as the deciding factor.
In Steele's defense he most picks off what he calls fundementals what you are calling matchups. But he does fill his publications with a lot of that type of stuff.
Posted on 10/8/09 at 11:38 am to no1g8r
quote:Lazy sportswriters and analysts. They're the rule, not the exception.
Why do these so-called experts always do a "trend analysis" rather than a "matchup analysis", when matchups are what matters the most, not trends.
Posted on 10/8/09 at 12:17 pm to The312
You could also say that an undefeated record and a championship last season are indicative a strong team, but I don't think that's his point.
Posted on 10/8/09 at 12:39 pm to no1g8r
Why do these so-called experts always do a "trend analysis" rather than a "matchup analysis", when matchups are what matters the most, not trends.
Neither Florida's 5-0 record, nor LSU's 5-0 record, is going to help them this week. Last year's wins and losses won't help them this week. LSU's string of consecutive Saturday night wins won't help them this Saturday.
Matchups matter. O vs. D, ST's vs. ST's, playcalling, and individual position play will make a difference in this game. Not previous records and trends. I think it's just lazy "sports analysts" who look at the trends as the deciding factor.
nolg8r, I agree. But look how they all mention the call at UGA, but not the 40 yd. return. The first one writes an opinion, and the rest are lemmings. They are in training to become political pundits.
Neither Florida's 5-0 record, nor LSU's 5-0 record, is going to help them this week. Last year's wins and losses won't help them this week. LSU's string of consecutive Saturday night wins won't help them this Saturday.
Matchups matter. O vs. D, ST's vs. ST's, playcalling, and individual position play will make a difference in this game. Not previous records and trends. I think it's just lazy "sports analysts" who look at the trends as the deciding factor.
nolg8r, I agree. But look how they all mention the call at UGA, but not the 40 yd. return. The first one writes an opinion, and the rest are lemmings. They are in training to become political pundits.
Posted on 10/8/09 at 12:43 pm to Lou the Jew from LSU
quote:
Florida's 5-0 record,
I doubt that 5-0 record helps Florida either. But their 4-0 record might.
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